UFC Fight Night: Smith v Rakic

[2020Tracked]

Not the popular opinion but di chirico jumped off the paper at me. Thats the big $ this week. He'll beat Cummings.
Also, I notice guys saying Smith is a value play. Save yourself the $ rakic is legit. He'll beat smith most likely KO him. Rakic was in a razor thin match w the new version of Volkan and I give him major props for that performance win or lose. Smith gona have another rough night. Could even be a surprise retirement from mma as he looks to try out his hand as a commentator

I mean if that's your basis just be aware that Smith beat Volkan and finished him at that

 

[BigDramaShow26]

Agapova vs Dobson is proof to never bet female fights
Grasso should win but its a female fight so 50/50 despite the odds

Maybe not at those odds when the favorite hasn't proven anything. Agapova was getting way too much hype for beating up an Atomweight.

 

[benebox]

you wouldn’t have won 50k, most likely would have chopped it 100s of ways. So don’t be too disappointed.

Or more accurately one way, 100s of times.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Or more accurately one way, 100s of times.

Hehehehehhehehehe

 

[BaruchSpinoza]

I can see Anthony Smith being about +170, but +250, really?

Some overlap with what others have written, but will still put down a few thoughts.

Anthony looked good against Glover until he gassed terribly. His corner moronically hyped him to set a pace he couldn't maintain for more than two rounds. They were clearly looking to put Glover out early, and, for what it's worth, Anthony has said as much in interviews. A ridiculously high-risk gambit considering that, though Glover was hurt by both Cutelaba and Roberson, he hasn't been finished since a last round stoppage against Gus in 2017. 1. I don't see him making the same mistake against Rakic. 2. Even if he does, he could still win a decision in a three round fight.

In a parallell universe where Lionheart finished Glover in the second round, my guess is he would be a slight betting favourite against Rakic. In which case the question is whether the consequences of taking that beating warrant him being a +250 underdog?

Mentally I think Anthony Smith will come back just fine. In fact, he seems to enjoy and take pride in viewing himself as an underdog: fighting big bad bullies and proving everyone doubting him wrong, and so on... He seemed fine mentally in the Gus fight, coming back after being completely nullified by Jon Jones. From a mental perspective this scenario seems similar in many ways.

Not that it's necessarily relevant, but to give some perspective on the odds:
Should Smith really be as big of an underdog against Rakic as Edgar was against Munhoz? Edgar is 38, cutting to bantamweight for the first time, fighting a hard hitter, and his chin is in question after being one-shot KO:ed.

 

[mmaday4day]

did you look and see if you would've split it like 100 ways lol (still great obviously, but helps knowing it wouldn't have been all of 50k),,I had a very good lineup needing pedro to win that decision but I would've ended up splitting a bunch of it

Only one other player had the same lineup, so we would have shared the 100K

 

[mmaday4day]

you wouldn’t have won 50k, most likely would have chopped it 100s of ways. So don’t be too disappointed.

I had the winning lineup about a month ago (Whittaker vs. Till card) and shared 1st with 45 other players and won only about 5k, I would have shared 1st with 150 other players if Shahbazyan would have won, but this time only one other player had the same lineup so we would have shared the 100k.

 

[WolfgangKennelz]

I mean if that's your basis just be aware that Smith beat Volkan and finished him at that

The old Volcan. The Volkan that gassed terribly the volkan that wouldve beat smith 8 out of 10 times. I bet volkan over rakic, and think that rakic mightve deserved his hand raised. Rakic gona put smith out. Plus its 3 rounder. Smith dont have enough time to pull off a comeback

 

[matthew55]

I had the winning lineup about a month ago (Whittaker vs. Till card) and shared 1st with 45 other players and won only about 5k, I would have shared 1st with 150 other players if Shahbazyan would have won, but this time only one other player had the same lineup so we would have shared the 100k.

View attachment 793773

that's awesome, how many lineups would you say you put in on average? I been so close on some Nba ones too, ugh

 

[mmaday4day]

that's awesome, how many lineups would you say you put in on average? I been so close on some Nba ones too, ugh

It depends on the card and how confident I am; if I have a strong core of at least 3 players I usually play between 30 and 35 lineups and build my lineups around my core plays (so 450$ to 500$ per event). If I don't have any confident picks and there are a lot 50/50 matchups, I usually just play 10 lineups.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

For the Main event Smith vs Rakic
ITD or Decision?
Rakic almost came out winning on Volkan.

 

[mmaday4day]

For the Main event Smith vs Rakic
ITD or Decision?
Rakic almost came out winning on Volkan.

Hard to say, but I have a strong feeling this fight goes the distance. You can say what you want about Smith, but he never gives up and is very hard to finish. Rakic via dec for me.

 

[matthew55]

Hard to say, but I have a strong feeling this fight goes the distance. You can say what you want about Smith, but he never gives up and is very hard to finish. Rakic via dec for me.

if he gets in any trouble against Rakic, the refs may stop it earlier than they normally would imo

 

[Pfooter24]

Di chirico is big for the weight class I think Cummings is more well rounded though. Rakic is a legit prospect I believe..prob stab at it. I think caceres takes a beating

 

[mmaday4day]

if he gets in any trouble against Rakic, the refs may stop it earlier than they normally would imo

Sure, but Rakic went the distance against Barroso, Ledet and Oezdemir and the two guys he finished in the UFC - Manuwa and Clark - basically always get finished when they lose. I'm just saying, it's not a sure thing Rakic gets the finish. Smith is as tough as they come and I do expect him to be able to survive 3 rounds against Rakic and I even believe that the fight will be more competitive than people think.

 

[crodor3]

Only one other player had the same lineup, so we would have shared the 100K

that might be the absolute worst beat I have ever heard--a -1300 favorite losing like that ...sorry man that really sucks..

 

[mmaday4day]

that might be the absolute worst beat I have ever heard--a -1300 favorite losing like that ...sorry man that really sucks..

I deeply appreciate your expression of sympathy but hey, there is always the next event... maybe next time!

 

[mkess101]

I can see Anthony Smith being about +170, but +250, really?

Some overlap with what others have written, but will still put down a few thoughts.

Anthony looked good against Glover until he gassed terribly. His corner moronically hyped him to set a pace he couldn't maintain for more than two rounds. They were clearly looking to put Glover out early, and, for what it's worth, Anthony has said as much in interviews. A ridiculously high-risk gambit considering that, though Glover was hurt by both Cutelaba and Roberson, he hasn't been finished since a last round stoppage against Gus in 2017. 1. I don't see him making the same mistake against Rakic. 2. Even if he does, he could still win a decision in a three round fight.

In a parallell universe where Lionheart finished Glover in the second round, my guess is he would be a slight betting favourite against Rakic. In which case the question is whether the consequences of taking that beating warrant him being a +250 underdog?

Mentally I think Anthony Smith will come back just fine. In fact, he seems to enjoy and take pride in viewing himself as an underdog: fighting big bad bullies and proving everyone doubting him wrong, and so on... He seemed fine mentally in the Gus fight, coming back after being completely nullified by Jon Jones. From a mental perspective this scenario seems similar in many ways.

Not that it's necessarily relevant, but to give some perspective on the odds:
Should Smith really be as big of an underdog against Rakic as Edgar was against Munhoz? Edgar is 38, cutting to bantamweight for the first time, fighting a hard hitter, and his chin is in question after being one-shot KO:ed.

Absolutely terrific post, this is the kind of insight that makes this sub forum great. I'm rethinking my views on this fight. Was gonna take a pass, and still might, but there are really solid points here that show a play on Smith at these odds may have value.

 

[ill800]

Absolutely terrific post, this is the kind of insight that makes this sub forum great. I'm rethinking my views on this fight. Was gonna take a pass, and still might, but there are really solid points here that show a play on Smith at these odds may have value.

Smith dec +550 was pretty crazy to me

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Smith has been getting wrecked and coming back his entire career. It was very out of his element to go whole hog in the beginning.