Prelims Part 2
Jackson vs J.P Buys
Like I said earlier, range is the best takedown defense and Montel should have that here. An 8.5 inch reach advantage while being a significantly better striker in all regards and an infinitely better athlete. This might seem like not criminal matchup because of Montel’s struggle with grapplers but those are full size bantamweights who posses UFC caliber technique. J.P is neither and should be getting absolutely stomped here. The line reflects this obviously at -650. I’ll probably parlay it with something near evens for a plus money bet. Montel is the pick.
Motta vs VanCamp
Wooo, VanCamp is a wild boy. He doesn’t move his head much and is definitely hittable when it turns into a brawl but man does he go out to fight. He’s a big lightweight at a decently muscled 6’1, has a diverse arsenal of strikes and a very well timed shot. His grappling game is where he shines at his current level, just very opportunistic and leverages his length well with front chokes and strong frames in the clinch. His footwork is a mess and the man is mostly just looking to T off and take a takedown if it presents itself, flying knees, turning elbows, power straights, he throws it all with reckless abandon. Even his top game is all risk taking with somewhat loose pressure that allows him to float around positions. He’s looks to sweep off his back rather than sub, which is good to see though his defensive vulnerabilities don’t bode well at the next level.
On the other side you have Motta who keeps a high guard and semi upright (which becomes more upright as the fight goes on) exclusively. He really relies a lot on that high guard because his head is entirely static and he uses his explosive offense as defense. While he occasionally blasts a straight, he mostly comes from the Jon Lineker School of Power Hooks and Other Good Things Too. Though he lacks Linekers iron chin and non-stop pressure, choosing instead to circle until he sees an opening and bursting forward. Everything strike he throws is an all out shot with no real connective tissue to hold his game together. I will say he has excellent timing and range on his hooks that somewhat makes up for the defensive positioning and tight pocket footwork I’d like to see accompany them.
Motta is certainly the cleaner striker but neither are very good in the technical sense. I think both will really struggle at the UFC level if they don’t begin closing their respective deficits. As far as this fight though, I favor VanCamp. He potentially could get blasted over and over with hooks via how bad hangs his chin out, but I see his large length advantage and grappling threat being enough to make entering difficult for Motta. In the clinch his ability to frame should especially make the 5’8 fighter feel the physicality difference. The last big reason for me is the way Motta enters via bursting combined with his narrow stance makes him open for a timed shot from VanCamp at any moment. At nearly +250 between 2 low quality fighters, it’s not a hard decision, Van Camp is the pick.
Rong vs Jenkins
Man, this is a tough one. Both fighters kinda look to do the same thing in different ways. They’re both relaxed fighters that are at their best moving forward, feinting and using their excellent timing to piece their opponents apart. They both also can end up conceding the initiative and coasting off their backfoot, where both of them are not as effective.
Jenkins is more creative and loose, he can parry but uses good pocket footwork and great head movement to slip shots. The vast majority of his shots are for volume and reads, he looks more to break opponents down in the long run vs putting on power shots. That said he has a flying knee ko and a spinning elbow ko, both were excellently timed and executed, so he’s not lacking finishing potential. He leverages his length into great range management and a relentless low kick. I both Love and hate his low kick, it’s so well timed and typically happens right after the opponent steps, limiting their ability to counter back. He can also through from both stances to the front or rear, inside or outside. What I hate is that he doesn’t defend while throwing it nor does he set it up with strikes, opting to rely on his timing instead of disguising the naked kick. This could be potential for disaster against a heavy handed counter striker like Rong.
Rong’s a lot more conventional in what he’s trying to do. He keeps his hands mostly up and when he’s moving forward with his versatile jab, he’s able to really capitalize on openings, especially with his tight hooks. He’s also got a powerful wrestling game in his pocket that isn’t entirely fleshed out but is functional off his timing and power. I don’t like how available the leg kick is against him, especially against someone as relentless with it as Jenkins but I do think he’ll adjust to it, especially if he can get some forward momentum.
This fight is gonna come down to who can move forward. Jenkins has the length, volume and tighter footwork but Rong has more effortless power and the power wrestling. It’s hard to tell since both have a habit of conceding this but I do think Jenkins is better moving backwards than Rong is. Rong likely has a tougher chin but Jenkins isn’t a slouch in that department. I think it’s somewhat more likely that Rong lands a power counter at some point behind the looser, more slip reliant guard of Jenkins or effectively wrestles. If he moves backwards though his wrestling will be very hard to implement, Jenkins is highly poised and relaxed in his movement so landing a reactive double won’t be nearly as easy as a blast double while moving forward. All in all, while I lean Rong here, I see a strong path for Jenkins as well and at +250 I have to take the value shot. Jenkins is the pick.
Pennington vs Kianzad
I’m not doing this one. Partially because it’s a WMMA fight with two gritty females that’ll probably be a sweat out regardless of who you picked but mostly because I don’t enjoy watching either of these fighters at all. Pass.
Rodriguez vs Nchukwi
This fight’s gonna come down to who can enforce their gameplan the best, but neither fighter is particularly good at it. Rodriguez has all the measurables to give Tafon fits. He’s long, fights tall and has good timing and range on his strikes. If he was a more adept counterstriker, actually used his jab more or had good rangey footwork, I’d say he had this fight in the bag. Sadly he doesn’t do any of that. He does use his legs very actively as range-keepers, lots of long leg kicks and teeps with the occasional straight shot. The only thing he really sits down on though is his body kick, which could be hard to land clean on such a stout opponent. His biggest problems going into this are his retreating footwork, a rough backpedal that’ll feed right into Tafon putting him against the fence and his lack of raw strength both at range and in the clinch. Without good movement he needs some power to dissuade Tafon from just rocking forward, he doesn’t have it. His clinchwork is actually fantastic, he uses leverages well and maximizes his height advantage with driving knees and elbows. It’s going to be difficult to do this though when you have a massively strong bully sucking you in tight with much shorter levers to drive the body shots that both fighters want.
On the other end you have Tafon who is one of the most footslow fighters I’ve ever seen. This is somewhat purposeful as his shambling footwork conserves energy and allows him to slowly corral opponents into the fence. Once he does get into clinch range he has brutal body head combos with a very tight uppercut. Optimally he beats his opponents around and can land his power high kick as they try to laterally exit. His game’s added hard leg kicks too but it’s still lacking a way to enter the pocket that doesn’t involve slowly walking headfirst into jabs like a mini tank.
Assuming neither made a giant leap, I lean Tafon here. The reach advantage cuts both ways and having significantly longer arms is a hindrance when the shorter fighter gets in tight and I think Tafon will. I don’t think Rod has the technical ability to leverage his physical advantages into the kind of fighter that would really challenge Tafon’s lack of mobility, entrances or ringcraft. Maybe he surprises me and is more footfast and circular, maybe his teep and leg kick are enough to perplex Tafon or maybe Tafon just bullies him around landing two or three in tight for every one or two Rod lands at range and is too strong and low in the clinch. I’m gonna go with the latter, Tafon is the pick.
