im a bit ahead on tape so here's my 2c on some fights:
Shavkat/Harris: Hard fight to get a read on, but these odds have to be wide. Shavkat was a dog in his debut and then a -200 favorite over an over-the-hill Prezeres, and now he is a massive fav over his toughest opponent. I think Harris might struggle to get his takedowns, Shavkat has insane balance and a solid whizzer overhook. But in the standup alone Harris is awkward enough and has underrated power. I have seen him spark people with one punch on regionals. He has also put out fighters similar to Shavkat on regionals with his anaconda choke. Shavkat is more disciplined and I feel like the longer the fight goes the more chance he has to finish Harris who seems to be a bit wilder and slow down late. I'm sprinkling the number here small out of principle alone. Both guys are finishing machines so possible the under prop is in play, but no doubt will be juiced.
Gordon/Bondar: Hard to get a read on Bondar but it's clear his wrestling and top control is insane. Especially his knee on belly control. Even though Gordon is a black belt, I feel like eventually he gasses out and gets finished on the bottom. Gordon went to war with Figgis shitter brother, I dont think either guys are UFC lvl in all honesty. Bondar has some nice technical striking as well, but Gordon could land something if he lets his hands go. I am surprised these odds haven't been juiced even more, maybe because Bondar doesn't have a Dagi name lol.
Dawodu/Trizano: Man Dawodu is so bodring to tape. So many split decisions due to his point fighting style. Trizano is pretty similar actually, technical, one strike at a time, mostly jabs and leg kicks. Dawodu is more athletic and most likely hits harder. Dog or pass for me, I see a close striking battle here, not sure if I will hit Trizano as I could be underestimating Dawodus credentials, he has fought good competition and done well. Over will be juiced but will be interesting to see where it's at.
Johns/Sexy Mexy: Taped a lottttt of Castenada's fights, trying to find his wrestling defense. We talking 15 fights at least. He can be taken down, but he is great at scrambling back up asap. In fact, he wins most of his fights by incorporating his own takedowns and is good at sinking the hooks in. The problem is when he is fighting a higher lvl of competition and he can't wrestle them, he doesn't put much of a stamp on fights with his standup. He has nice combinations and underrated power, but a lot of the time he fights like he is sparing. He got 30-27ed by Wood, and was losing the first round convincingly to Winland before getting a KO. Jons fights like a weasel, he uses his speed and athletism to constantly back up and avoid strikes, and steals rounds with his big power or wrestling. His striking has improved recently to the point he can mix it up, he can land leg kicks, or body shots, and chip away until the big power shot opens up. He hits like a truck and his wrestling is great, but he's very gassy and not a fan of pressure. Castenada has great durability and cardio, so I think he will be there for 3 rounds putting on the pressure, but because he won't be able to get his wrestling off not sure I want to hit him. It's for sure wide, but Johns is improving and I underestimated him before. I feel like Sexy needs to clip him hard to steal a round or for Johns to gass badly. Maybe a live bet would be better.
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