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UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 15, 2017.

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  1. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    man i really wanted to take masvidal at his opening prices, no euro books had it though. might just take cerrone now, at least he may get bet a lot by casuals especially after his consecutive spectacular ko's. i'm hoping masvidals price improves at some point so i can put a bet on him.
     
  2. HeDucking Im so Groovy Banned

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    I would've played Masvidal at +150 or better. 2 weeks for the odds to get better I guess but it looks like Ill probably take Cowboy. I really think this is a dog situation and is likely 50/50.
    Most of this card looks like dog plays.

    I feel like we will get an excellent price on Shev after 2 rounds. She'll win a comfortable decision after a rough one or two rounds.
     
  3. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Man this card sucks for me personally. I won't play anyone straight up at more than -130, and I don't think i see a two man parlay i like. Everything i say below is subject to tape review.

    Mas @ +150 or more I'd probably go all in but hes +100 wtf.

    Raphael as a pick 'em but @ -170 no thanks.

    I wanted Alvey as a pick 'em I can't play him @ -160.

    Ngannou way too juiced.

    Di Chirico possibly if a pick 'em.

    Ones i have no idea how i am leaning without tape watching are Caceres, Li and Shev.

    Basically I've got a shit load of tape to watch. Im actually glad we have two weeks.
     
  4. HumbleCoco Yellow Belt

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    Fuck going into work ever again when there's openers like this
     
  5. vkram Brown Belt

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    Does Pena have a history of gassing?
     
  6. HumbleCoco Yellow Belt

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    Initial thoughts;
    Going to have to be so careful picking Shev/Pena because I just dislike Pena
    Worried Cerrone could be Nate Diaz'd again
    Hope Spicely comes out with with a juicy sub line again
    Want good price on Shelton
     
  7. Cord White Belt

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    Really liking Cerrone and Ngannou so far. However Ngannou here is already at 1.22 which is a bit too low. Will hit at 1.30.

    Btw, no thread on Bellator 170 - Sonnel/Ortiz? Interesting card to bet with 17 fights.
     
  8. MMAGamblero Banned Banned

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    Taking cerrone big and schvenko.
     
  9. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Pretty surprised assuncao got bet so much. Expecting that line to even out
     
  10. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Hope so i was expecting pick 'em.

    I've ruled betting Chirico out just watched his UFC fights. He can be taken down and while he uses his whizzer well to make taking his back difficult in transition Spicely is very slick. One down 11 to go.
     
  11. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Can Knight just walk down Caceres or is Caceres too slick standing?
     
  12. Basek Blue Belt

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    Bobby Nash, solid wrestler with ko power. Looks decent on tape, was preparing for title fight at some local organization when UFC called. Will play him plus Mas , that French beast and Shev.
    Plus some 2 parlays copy and paste from Officer Brown that hit the bank yesterday haha
    I am impressed sir hats off. That was sick .
     
  13. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I think Masvidal is a very tough fight for Cerrone.
     
  14. SalvadorAllende Steel Belt

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    With you on Cerrone looking hittable and I think that Masvidal is a bad matchup for him. Money on the underdog for me.

    Marquardt is better fighter than Alvey other than being shot. I think there is value on him. Impossible to not like a guy that smiles all the time but Sam is just not that good.

    Not touching Arlovski and Ngannou... but I think Francis gets the job done pretty easily. The guy is really game and patient. I feel it is going to need an elite striker (say JDS) or an elite pressure wrestleboxer (say Cain) to beat him down convincingly.
    His chin is still a question. I remember him being stunned by a jab (more a straight left iirc) by Curtis Blaydes. Yeah.. Curtis is a huge and underrated fighter.
    Arlovski is shot and besides the Browne fight he fought scared since he came back to the UFC. I dont care if he had a good streak at some point. All his wins came with a huge *.
    Schaub: Nothing happened and most think he lost. He also apologized for his performance.
    Bigfoot: BF crumbled as soon as he got touched.
    Browne: Was a brawl but he looked good at it.
    Mir: even worst fight than Schaub. He was really tentative, almost frozen.

    Then he faced better competition and looked outmatched in all 3 fights.

    I never bought his resurgence. Maybe a little after Browne fight but he has looked awful in the rest.
     
  15. SalvadorAllende Steel Belt

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    Im going back and for that one but I parlay the over 2.5 for sure. Cant see them finishing eachother.
     
  16. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    I think this is a very bad matchup for Aljo. Assuncao has great TDD (Caraway couldn't complete any takedowns as far as I remember) and is a way better striker than Aljo at this point.
     
  17. Cptn1NSAN0 shows no mercy

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    Loving Masvidal and Marquardt. Wish we had better prices on Knight and Assuncao but I'll find some way to play them.

    I'm actually kind of glad that I didn't end up being able to attend this one live. I don't think I could bring myself to root against Cowboy live and this is gonna be a huge play for me.
     
  18. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    That's what im thinking without watching tape. Aljo has terrible standup he just spams kicks. I need Raphael closer to evens tho.
     
  19. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Masvidal +120...come on get to +150.
     
  20. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Tempted to play Arlovski at these odds despite chin issues. Big step up for Ngannou and we havnt seen his chin being tested. I could see Arlovski slipping one of those wild punches and KO Ngannou with a counter. Arlovski is by far the best striker he's faced. Ngannou doesn't really set up his strikes either he waits for his moment and then throws everything into those nuclear bombs, he even goes off balance when he throws sometimes, could be bad news here.
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2017
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