UFC Fox 24 - DJ vs Reis - Kansas City

[Joseph Budden]

Renato Moicano is going to get his head taken clean off, does anyone here actually think he'll win? I think Jeremy is going to light him up, Moicano doesn't move his head at all, he likes to come forward, throws sloppy punches. Jeremy will find his chin easy. This is a big step down in competition for Jeremy, big step up for Moicano.

Wow between this and Ashlee your opinions for this event are very #elite

 

[t6p]

That's it, I'm playing Whittaker at 2.87, 2U. Might add to his KO-line.

Just listened to their breakdown and they referenced Whittaker's "extraordinary takedown defense". Statistically, his TDD is excellent but when has he ever displayed it against someone with the ability to get the fight to the ground like Jacare? Not to mention, Jacare may only need one takedown to end this fight. We really don't know how Whittaker is going to react if the fight hits the ground.

They also both said that Whittaker should be the favorite here, which is crazy IMO.

 

[Turp11]

I don't even think it's his fight IQ that is the problem, I think it's his limited skillset. All he has is a right hand and a medicore wrestling and BJJ game. I know he's got a BJJ black belt but when has his BJJ ever looked great in MMA? couldn't do a thing to Lewis on the mat and that's Lewis.

Roy did control the beast tho which is more than most people are capable of

 

[Joseph Budden]

After a little tape watching, Roy won't take Volkov down. Volkov will likely use his physical superiority the same way he did when Johnson tried to clinch and get tds. However, jesus Volkov is more hittable than I remember. Hes tough and recovers well, but can't trust him as a favorite nor can I trust the o1.5 for my round robin like I originally thought I could.

If Roy dec is juiced as fuck might take a stab. Otherwise, just livebetting this one

 

[LEMONZEST]

How? I havent watched tape yet on this and havent made my mind up on my double/treble for this event.

Im the biggest Sham nuthugger this thread has known BUT....i dont agree about Rose. I think KH is mentally tougher and comes in with a better base (u c those thighs?) KH trained Karate from childhood....i dont see her easily getting boxed up... its a close fight and i think KH takes it with more grit and toughness. Rose tries hard but ultimately she is weak minded.

Im waiting patiently to tail your double.

 

[Antagonist88]

Hate how juiced Stephens got. Hate even more that my shitty book still doesn't have lines up.

Feel like the only value left is DJ/Reis o3.5 and Jacare. Probably AlJo/Augusto o2.5 too but -210 is pushing it

 

[Wiktoruspro]

The1.5r over in Nelson-Volkov has some value

 

[MMAJay]

Thoughts on Clark vs. Collier?

Clark walks around at 220, and Collier normally fights at 185. Clark should have improved his cardio in New Mexico, and he has worked on his combinations with a setup to his takedowns, he might not spend as much energy as he usually does. I will watch tape on both, but as of right now, Clark has a pretty generous line IMO.

Anyone who knows if it is a big or small cage?

 

[Sham5916910]

Im the biggest Sham nuthugger this thread has known BUT....i dont agree about Rose. I think KH is mentally tougher and comes in with a better base (u c those thighs?) KH trained Karate from childhood....i dont see her easily getting boxed up... its a close fight and i think KH takes it with more grit and toughness. Rose tries hard but ultimately she is weak minded.

Im waiting patiently to tail your double.

Haha agree to disagree but ive decided im not risking it. Bet on a woman last week two weeks in a row is pushing it! Think i know my double well infact its a treble and its so juiced i dont like it but i have no other option. Just waiting for some more books to open lines but if anyone gets more juiced im aborting ship. In that case fuck knows what im gonna do.

 

[EzFlyer]

The1.5r over in Nelson-Volkov has some value

-170? pass

 

[Jamah]

are the Heavy Hands guys legit? They look like they know what they are talking about.

 

[Joseph Budden]

are the Heavy Hands guys legit? They look like they know what they are talking about.

Yeah for sure. Great analysis and discussions. Patrick Wyman is probably my favorite and most accurate media person with his breakdowns and predictions

 

[Clit Yeastwood]

The1.5r over in Nelson-Volkov has some value

From what I remember Volkov showed a good chin against johnson (he got dropped but still survived) although what I think is a more important take away is that he gets hit clean with bombs. Nelson is old but he still has that crazy right hand. Like EzFlyer said above not too much value in a -170 over when you're up against Nelson and eat shots like it's a free buffet

 

[LEMONZEST]

I know I said a few pages back that there is no value in Reis but...

Elliot gave MM one helluva a fight early on. I think in some ways Elliot showed a gameplan which could potentially work against MM. Namely, come in a bit bigger with a hard weight cut but then dominate early on by being the bigger guy. The risk here is being the bigger man you likely won't last going into the later rounds but you have a chance to finish early on (r1 and r2).

The Reis fight was delayed due to MM having a leg injury (LCL?). MM also said he injured his LCL in the first round against Elliot. Seems like MM could have some nagging leg injuries...

Looking at Reis' record he has several first round wins by sub. I think MM wins this fight but the one path to victory I do see here is for Reis to snag a sub early (r1 or r2) probably in r1. Again this is following in the footsteps of what Elliot showed vs. MM. Reis needs to create scrambles early be unorthodox and hope he can get in some weird positions to snag a sub.

If the fight nears the end of r2 I would give Reis a near 0% chance of winning.

 

[Jamah]

Yeah for sure. Great analysis and discussions. Patrick Wyman is probably my favorite and most accurate media person with his breakdowns and predictions

Thanks bud! I wanted to bet on Whittaker, and after listening to the podcast I want to bet on him even more lol

 

[Joseph Budden]

Thanks bud! I wanted to bet on Whittaker, and after listening to the podcast I want to bet on him even more lol

Whittaker's body looking very luscious. Another confidence increase for you

 

[Shoulder]

Just listened to their breakdown and they referenced Whittaker's "extraordinary takedown defense". Statistically, his TDD is excellent but when has he ever displayed it against someone with the ability to get the fight to the ground like Jacare? Not to mention, Jacare may only need one takedown to end this fight. We really don't know how Whittaker is going to react if the fight hits the ground.

They also both said that Whittaker should be the favorite here, which is crazy IMO.

I agree with you, him being a favorite is crazy talk but 2.87 is way too nice.

And even if he won easy, Jacare had a camp and cut and fight last week or so, and I assume everything takes a toll on his old body.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Ok saying Whittaker should be a favorite is inexcusable but still a great podcast

 

[Card]

Moicano won as an underdog last time, taller (1 inch more reach), undefeated (has momentum, 2 wins in UFC), throws more strikes per minute, younger.

Some things to think about.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Lol yes. I'm on Whittaker at +220 but saying that he should be favoured is just plain dumb.