UFC Fox 25 - Weidman vs Gastelum - Long Island

[Stunna77]

Ruebusch picked Seery over Pantoja last week, can't take the guy seriously.

It is weird because some of his breakdowns seem spot on and then others seem like he just mailed them in or is trying to justify a gut call or who he wants to win.

 

[Stunna77]

LOL ,Elkins by SUB. His last submission win was in 2009 against a 5-13 record fighter. The less likely outcome imo

I am very heavy on Berm and was thinking about hedging a bit with Elkins TKO/KO +710 as I feel Berms chin is really his only liability. Elkins subbing him never even crossed my mind. I dont see Elkins getting a dominated position on the mat and Berm isn't getting subbed from top position. Maybe a guillotine in a scramble or sloppy shot from Berm, but yeah not seeing it.

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

It is weird because some of his breakdowns seem spot on and then others seem like he just mailed them in or is trying to justify a gut call or who he wants to win.

I think he gives good insight and he's very knowledgeable but he just comes to weird conclusions sometimes. There's literally no reason he should favour Seery over Pantoja in Seery's retirement fight. It's terrible watching the MMA vivisection guys trying to give gambling advice, they really have no idea.

 

[Card]

I still have my eyes set on the 170 title

 

[Yotsuya]

I think he gives good insight and he's very knowledgeable but he just comes to weird conclusions sometimes. There's literally no reason he should favour Seery over Pantoja in Seery's retirement fight. It's terrible watching the MMA vivisection guys trying to give gambling advice, they really have no idea.

I think they are pretty open about their favourites/fetishes. I listen Vivi for analysis, not picks.

 

[Card]

 

[Stunna77]

I think he gives good insight and he's very knowledgeable but he just comes to weird conclusions sometimes. There's literally no reason he should favour Seery over Pantoja in Seery's retirement fight. It's terrible watching the MMA vivisection guys trying to give gambling advice, they really have no idea.

Yeah maybe he should do a "Outcome I want to happen" and "Outcome I think will happen"

 

[EzFlyer]

against a couple of ya on natal, i'm taking anders. i don't love that he's on short notice, obviously, but i think natal's on the decline. anderson proved he can go deep if he needs to when he just went 5... he's just a much better athlete.

i've been taking athletes > non athletes a lot lately.

 

[Stunna77]

against a couple of ya on natal, i'm taking anders. i don't love that he's on short notice, obviously, but i think natal's on the decline. anderson proved he can go deep if he needs to when he just went 5... he's just a much better athlete.

i've been taking athletes > non athletes a lot lately.

I would also be wary of playing Natal as I agree he is on the decline and Anders is a very good athlete with power. Haven't watched a ton of tape so I am passing, but wouldn't be surpised to see Anders spark him.

 

[quincy k]

I would also be wary of playing Natal as I agree he is on the decline and Anders is a very good athlete with power. Haven't watched a ton of tape so I am passing, but wouldn't be surpised to see Anders spark him.

allen was the only legit fighter that anders fought and the decision couldve went either way. never had brendan in any sort of real trouble.

i would be very surprised to see a limited fighter like anders, in new york, ko natal even though rafael has questionable punch resistance.

 

[Sadistics]

Zaleski RD3 +1850, NSC +141, both generous lines imo, but passing myself as I already have 2u ML

 

[Stunna77]

allen was the only legit fighter that anders fought and the decision couldve went either way. never had brendan in any sort of real trouble.

i would be very surprised to see a limited fighter like anders, in new york, ko natal even though rafael has questionable punch resistance.

Will have to check that fight out, but like I said I am probably passing this fight, pretty heavy on this card already. I would just have a hard time trusting Natal with my money against a young athletic prospect at this point in his career. Thanks for sharing the fight video tho!

 

[EzFlyer]

vera sub +815 (prolly his best chance to win?)
pepey sub +789 (definitely his best chance to win?)

anders nsc -137..

wade rd 3 +1300.. johnson rd 3 +975.. kelleher rd 1 +375..

these ones caught my eye

wade sub +490 mehhh not bad but pass

 

[EzFlyer]

Zaleski RD3 +1850, NSC +141, both generous lines imo, but passing myself as I already have 2u ML

threw a lil stab on that 1850!

 

[wack3d]

Pepey R1 +875 im in Burgos fights reckless and Pepey no matter how flawed he may be is still one of the most dangerous R1 fighters there is

 

[t6p]

Pepey R1 +875 im in Burgos fights reckless and Pepey no matter how flawed he may be is still one of the most dangerous R1 fighters there is

Agree, but I went with Pepey sub +865 instead as a hedge to my Burgos action. I trust Burgos's chin if Pepey lands something crazy.

 

[Card]

 

[NinjaCat456]

Damn i been parlaying berm @ -250. Still got some to add luckily so can take this incredible line

So I'm guessing your double for this card is Berm + Burgos..?

 

[trucido]

LOL @ Burgos being -400, like really? I'd take a shot at Pepey since he's wild as fuck.

 

[Sham5916910]

Elkins beat his last 3 opponents cos they gassed. Skelly said he shouldnt have even fought. Berm is not going to gas i just cannot see a path to victory for elkins outside him summoning up the power of greyskull to crack that iffy chin of berms. I give berm every adv possible outside chin.