UFC Fox 25 - Weidman vs Gastelum - Long Island

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Sunwater said:
Sorry, not sure what you mean?
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You're saying you can freeroll for 7u, by freeroll you mean you have an insane amount on Villante, and now that odds shifted you can bet Cummins to recover your stake and still profit 7u if Villante wins?
 
Sadistics said:
You're saying you can freeroll for 7u, by freeroll you mean you have an insane amount on Villante, and now that odds shifted you can bet Cummins to recover your stake and still profit 7u if Villante wins?
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Sorry if I got it mixed up. My first post I mentioned "freeroll to win" so if I do switch sides I can bet Cummins without any risk to win 7u. If Cummins loses I break even.
 
Zee's MMA Subscriber said:
I really don't get the love for Bermudez, he's lost 3 of his last 5, just got KO'd and easily beat by a guy that hadn't fought in 3 years. Elkins is in prime form, just a way better version of himself since joining Alpha Male. Hard to be confident betting against a guy like Elkins, I don't think he's an easy fight for anyone. If I was fading Elkins with a guy thats -250 I'd want them to be more reliable than Bermudez. I think all the value is on Elkins, win or lose you know he'll give 100%
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You can say hes lost 3 of 5 or 3 of 10 depending on what side you are trying to sell! If elkins didnt pull a win out of his arse wed all be talking about what a mammoth beatdown the bektic fight was it was the most unlikely win of the year. Elkins relies on people gassing bermudez is not going to gas. Berm struggles with power strikers which elkins isnt hes stiff as a board standing. Elkins is not going to out wrestle berm he couldnt really get his wrestling going that effectively against the likes of whiteford and martins and his tdd is like 40%. Berm has the best tdd out there and he will dictate where this fight takes place. Ive only ever bet berm against hettes kawa and jason and im very happy playing him again here in this spot.
 
Sunwater said:
Sorry if I got it mixed up. My first post I mentioned "freeroll to win" so if I do switch sides I can bet Cummins without any risk to win 7u. If Cummins loses I break even.
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Ah gotcha. What I said before still applies then, no need to completely switch sides if you lean Villante, you could arb some on Cummins to reduce risk and get a better price on Villante
 
Zee's MMA Subscriber said:
I really don't get the love for Bermudez, he's lost 3 of his last 5, just got KO'd and easily beat by a guy that hadn't fought in 3 years. Elkins is in prime form, just a way better version of himself since joining Alpha Male. Hard to be confident betting against a guy like Elkins, I don't think he's an easy fight for anyone. If I was fading Elkins with a guy thats -250 I'd want them to be more reliable than Bermudez. I think all the value is on Elkins, win or lose you know he'll give 100%
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I agree whole heartedly with the negatives on Dennis, however my feeling on this fight isn't about him
It's about his opponent.
And while we all love a good Cinderella story, one of those 3/5 wins of DB's was against Kawajiri who is literally a better version of Elkins,
I think we're safe here
 
Elkins blew up lots of parlays last time when he somehow won, so now he is an underplay.

Dennis won't gas and if he gets KO'd by Elkins he is a piece of shit.
 
Wow Grobowski 3.15 on unitbet.
Guys, Sherman is a bum. The Polish Pitbull via sub late rd2 or early rd3.
 
Sunwater said:
Wow Grobowski 3.15 on unitbet.
Guys, Sherman is a bum. The Polish Pitbull via sub late rd2 or early rd3.
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both of them are "bums" Grabowski is old coming off injuries and two R1 KO loses and have not fought in a year.. that said i would never touch Sherman at these odds dog or pass for sure i choose pass :)
 
I could never bring myself to bet on the man with the worst tattoo I have ever seen in my life. I honestly never thought id see a worst tattoo than Brooks dick tat or the guy with the Jonny Cash tat and then Elkins somehow goes and tops both...
 
Elkins' only route to victory is by knockout. Before the Bektic fight Elkins' last knockout was in 2009 against an 0-13 fighter (i don't count the Carvalho fight that was a ridiculous stoppage).
 
JDB said:
Elkins blew up lots of parlays last time when he somehow won, so now he is an underplay.

Dennis won't gas and if he gets KO'd by Elkins he is a piece of shit.
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you forgot to mention kod in new york in front of friends and family
 
So Lyman Good is pretty comfortable in exchanges and does a good job of slipping punches and countering. I was a bit surprised that the U2.5 pays +160 since both these guys are willing to hang out in the pocket a bit and throw heat.
I think Zaleski will have the higher output of strikes overall but Lyman will probably hit Zaleski with more clean punches in exchanges. Both these guys have non existent TDD so it will be interesting to see if that comes in to play in any way since none of them really goes for takedowns very often.
If this hits the judges score cards I do think Zaleski has a good chance of getting the nod since he can keep a high pace for three full rounds but there's definitely a chance that Lyman puts him away IMO. Anyways, at Zaleskis current odds I feel he is worth a play since this should be closer to a pick em.

Have to play the big underdog Bochniak as well since he always fights to win and he's opponent is a cage hugger fighting under the new scoring criteria (New York has it right? I always forget).

My biggest bet on the card is Bermudez. He is the GOAT against grapplers with shit striking (Kawajiri, Guida, Hettes). Perfect matchup for him here in Elkins. I think -200 holds a lot of value.
 
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Wow Gastelum does not look impressive at all. I know he doesn't belong at 185 but he looks a little flabby in my opinion, compared to Chris who from instagram is looking excellent.
 
Might just be me but anyone else think Villante looks in better shape than usual?
 
Only 2 bets on this card so far.

£500 on Kelvin Gastelum ML @1.64
£250 on Kelleher + Wade double @1.94
 
Anders looked a bit drained imo but made the weight with towel
 
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