UFC on ESPN 2 Barboza vs Gaethje

Johnson, Moraes, Yusuff, Waterson









 
Hermansson, Emmett, Gaethje, Kowalkiewicz, Barboza









 
Branch, Kenney, Aguilar (not english), Waterson







 
If this fight was at FLW, I would be all over DLR at +285, but he's going to be very undersized in this spot. Still think the odds are wide, but Perez should win.

Mazo vs Moroz should be a kickboxing fight. Mazo's TDD sucks, but I don't think we'll see Moroz try and level change. I cap Mazo at -200 honestly. But I learned a good tip from @Gugabe last week, he said he doesn't bet on WMMA fighters who rely on striking to win, if a woman has a grappling PTV, it might be worth a bet, but it's hard to rely on WMMA fighters to execute striking gameplans. So no bet at -145.

Kenney looks game. Think he will be the better striker, and has a solid enough ground game to where I don't think Borg will be able to take him down and hold him down all fight. Kenney could make this a close fight if it stays on the feet, so +250 is a good price. Also taking into consideration that Borg is coming off an 18 month layoff. Where he had 5 opponent changes, an eye injury, and of course dealing with his personal family issues, while Kenney has been active, fighting 5 round title fights in LFA.

I like Marina Rodriguez, but she shouldn't be -345 vs anybody.

I favor Moraes in this spot so him at + money is great. Think he is the better overall fighter, and more diverse striker. If Moraes fights on the outside at kicking range, and doesn't get in wild exchanges, he should out-strike Yusuf.

If black belt Anton Berzin couldn't finish Nzechukwu with those sub attemps, Paul Craig isn't either. Nzech is playable. But I'm holding off because it's his debut.

I would like to bet Hermansson in this spot, but his best PTV is to use his infamous GnP to get tko Branch, however I feel like I'm relying on a recency bias of his past couple fights. I think Hermansson intentionally uses crazy striking techniques because he isn't afraid of getting taken down. His sub defense, sweeps, and GnP are so good that he is comfortable being in bad spots from time to time, he'll still find a way to win. Branch has looked so mediocre the past few years, and Hermansson's last two wins were incredible performances.

I really think Emmett is going to come out wrestling in this spot. he just got his face smashed, and he might have done some reflecting like "why I am getting in firefights on the feet when I have this great wrestling pedigree in my back pocket." He also's a TAM guy, and Elkins and Fili just fought MJ. Elkins took his back and choked him, Fili also took his back, had a deep RNC in, but MJ defended it. Emmett would be retarded to not try and exploit MJ's ground game. However, I don't believe he can wrestle for 3 rounds straight, his body type just won't allow him, so it's a risky gameplan. Regardless, I bet MJ at +100 a few weeks ago. Don't love it, but I favor MJ.

I'll be in section 106, anybody else gonna be at Wells Fargo?
 
Last edited:
zeckdo said:
I really think Emmett is going to come out wrestling in this spot. he just got his face smashed, and he might have done some reflecting like "why I am getting in firefights on the feet when I have this great wrestling pedigree in my back pocket." He also's a TAM guy, and Elkins and Fili just fought MJ. Elkins took his back and choked him, Fili also took his back, had a deep RNC in, but MJ defended it. Emmett would be retarded to not try and exploit MJ's ground game. However, I don't believe he can wrestle for 3 rounds straight, his body type just won't allow him, so it's a risky gameplan. Regardless, I bet MJ at +100 a few weeks ago. Don't love it, but I favor MJ.
Click to expand...

Not trying to nitpick, but he really doesn't have a great wrestling pedigree. I'm a bit skeptical of his wrestling at this point honestly. We haven't really seen him use it adapted to MMA at a decent level. And then it's not like it's some really good background in wrestling, so who knows if he can even implement it against Johnson.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
I'm new to bet365 and seems like props are always out so late, like the day before the event pretty much lol. What did it used to be like?
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Used to come out around tuesday-wednesday for the main card, rarely later than thursday for full card
 
Oblivian said:
Not trying to nitpick, but he really doesn't have a great wrestling pedigree. I'm a bit skeptical of his wrestling at this point honestly. We haven't really seen him use it adapted to MMA at a decent level. And then it's not like it's some really good background in wrestling, so who knows if he can even implement it against Johnson.
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Good point. I guess I’m basing it off of narratives, never seen any good mma wrestling from him.
 
Perez ITD at +160, going to have some of that. I think Perez has developed into a finisher, four of his last five victories come by stoppage. His specialty is front chokes and he loves to chain them together... Doesn't hurt that he has twice the fights and experience of Bumblebee...
 
My current bets so far for this event are listed below.

Where I've taken seemingly low odds (like Waterson straight up) it's because the site I placed the bet with have offered insentive to bet there on an underdog, such as bet insurance.

Where I've taken conflicting fighter to win (Such as Barboza in a 3 leg and Gaethje by KO) it is again because a site have offered insentive to bet there, in this case free bets given after the bet is settled.

I'll use any method at my disposal to turn the odds in my favour. This week's bets so far have generated £20 in free bets for next week and a £10 matched bet if Waterson loses (and a £10 casino bonus....meh) .
 

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My "high risk" parlay of the week is Perez ITD/The Joker ITD... You can get them at +150/+135. 75 bucks will get you like $350. Looking for thoughts and opinions!
 
Naught2Sixty said:
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Borg's been inactive for 18 months and Johnson is basically the greatest flake of all time to begin with. Figured those two would shoot themselves in the shoot/disadvantage themselves with a bad weight cut.
 
LiquidNuke said:
My "high risk" parlay of the week is Perez ITD/The Joker ITD... You can get them at +150/+135. 75 bucks will get you like $350. Looking for thoughts and opinions!
Click to expand...
DLR is a pretty scrappy dude but Perez absolutely goes for it. Gotta question where Perez is at after getting KO'd twice by Joe B.

Joker might well get grinded. I think Branch is an underrated clinch fighter. I think he did well against Rockhold there but its tough to fight AKA dudes in that position because they all love that clinch.

Also imo your get rich quick parlays might ultimately bust you. Seen it time and time again those who dont embrace the marathon burn out. Of course theres exceptions to the rule but the odds arent in your favor.
 
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