UFC on ESPN 2 Barboza vs Gaethje

[Card]

 

[Shoulder]

Long shot prop: 0.25U@ Gaethje DEC @11.00. Barboza is just so damn tough so it’s possible Gaethje just wins a increasingly loopsided decisions with 10-8s in the last rounds.

I’m 2 U in on Gaethje, but I am a bit worried about the body kicks of Barboza.

 

[ApplesVild]

Seems like a lot if people are on Hermanson over Branch, if you're picking him wgat gives you confidence? How do you see the fight going?

 

[ill800]

Still on the fence with branch and hermansson.
I have about 3 units on branch’s ml


I watched 4 of his recent fights and didn’t see him stuff takedowns or get up. He didn’t really fight any wrestlers though

My main concern is what does he do if branch puts him on his back?

I was surprised at how easily he was able to get guys in comprising positions

Is he going to be able to get branch in these compromising positions?

His standup is nothing special. His takedowns are nothing special either, but I guess you could say the same about branch. He does seem pretty strong and strong willed

Watching his fight with leites now, fight pass sucks so it was kind of hidden

 

[Oblivian]

Seems like a lot if people are on Hermanson over Branch, if you're picking him wgat gives you confidence? How do you see the fight going?

You can argue that a lot of aspects are close to equal, but I see a lot more hustle and volume with Hermannson. I think the fight favors him more and more as it goes on as well. If he's on top later in the fight, I can see Branch wilting.

 

[ApplesVild]

You can argue that a lot of aspects are close to equal, but I see a lot more hustle and volume with Hermannson. I think the fight favors him more and more as it goes on as well. If he's on top later in the fight, I can see Branch wilting.

You seeing a discision? Who do you feel as the advantage on the mat?

 

[Oblivian]

You seeing a discision? Who do you feel as the advantage on the mat?

I think it's got a pretty strong chance of a decision, but also I could see a stoppage for Herm. Branch can always catch him as well obviously, but I don't think it's that likely.

On the mat, whoever is on top. I just think Herm's more punishing and more active where Branch will look for position and play the slow advance game. I also think Branch is more likely to accept bottom position. So for MMA grappling at this point in their careers, I favor Herm.

 

[ill800]

I think it's got a pretty strong chance of a decision, but also I could see a stoppage for Herm. Branch can always catch him as well obviously, but I don't think it's that likely.

On the mat, whoever is on top. I just think Herm's more punishing and more active where Branch will look for position and play the slow advance game. I also think Branch is more likely to accept bottom position. So for MMA grappling at this point in their careers, I favor Herm.

I’m thinking the most likely outcome would be herm tko or branch dec. herm likes to take the fight to the ground. If he’s successful I’m not sure branch can survive that type of fight for three rds.

Branch is a dec machine. If he can take herm down and keep him there he’ll likely play it safe and go for the dec vs losing position with a strong Greco guy like herm

I think branch can touch him with his boxing and I see herm Landing his leg kicks on the feet. They both like to push the other guy into the cage so we could see a lot of clinch work and I think that will favor joker

 

[ill800]

So hermansson vs leites was very telling

Leites was able to get him down. Had him in a nasty arm triangle that was really tight. Leites must’ve been tired in rd two because he should’ve finished that fight. Some dumb decisions that I could only accredit to being gassed.

He switches back to half guard and then to mount in the arm triangle. He had it super tight and really let hermansson off the hook.

Had him in full mount and just laid on him. Almost has him in another arm triangle and switches to north south. Really don’t know what leites was thinking

In rd 3 leites puts him in an anaconda and lets him off the hook again.

Give credit to hermansson for surviving that super tight arm triangle with a broken rib, then in between rds he really focused and decided he was going to go for a finish and ended up getting it against a wilting leites

Hard for me to justify a 3 unit play against that man. He is younger and hungrier and branch is out of contention in the late stages of his career

Edit: switched sides to hermansson. He’s just too strong willed to lose to branch imo. Put a few units on his ko line as well.

 

[Card]

 

[Tony J]

Personally, I have been a big fan of Jack the Joker, ever since his CWFC days, where has really won me some money. However, I think Branch is just a terrible match-up for him. I don't think Jack has the power to really get Branch out of there, nor the wrestling to advance position or get a stoppage that way. However, I can see the reverse happening, and Branch walling and stalling if not scoring takedowns. I will not be betting him, but I will be putting Branch in a few DraftKings lineups.

 

[ill800]

Lot of value betting against the overrated Karolina imo as well

Got waterson at +175 and played her again at +145.

She’s back to +145 now.

Karolina does her best work in close quarters but I don’t think she has the speed or movement to consistently close the range waterson will try to keep.

I also see waterson mixing up takedowns and putting Karolina on her back. Waterson is also good in the clinch and I don’t think Karolina will be able to bully her there like she does other girls

 

[ill800]

Personally, I have been a big fan of Jack the Joker, ever since his CWFC days, where has really won me some money. However, I think Branch is just a terrible match-up for him. I don't think Jack has the power to really get Branch out of there, nor the wrestling to advance position or get a stoppage that way. However, I can see the reverse happening, and Branch walling and stalling if not scoring takedowns. I will not be betting him, but I will be putting Branch in a few DraftKings lineups.

I think his gnp can get anyone in the ufc out of there.

I think he’s bigger and stronger than branch and I do think he will be able to get top position on him just like he did with leites. His Greco and explosiveness should give him an advantage in the clinch, where I see this fight taking place in.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Lot of value betting against the overrated Karolina imo as well

Got waterson at +175 and played her again at +145.

She’s back to +145 now.

Karolina does her best work in close quarters but I don’t think she has the speed or movement to consistently close the range waterson will try to keep.

I also see waterson mixing up takedowns and putting Karolina on her back. Waterson is also good in the clinch and I don’t think Karolina will be able to bully her there like she does other girls

Don't forget KK can't punch or elbow or knee with her soul anymore because Andrade took it from her.

 

[ill800]

Rockhold got branch down with body lock takedowns. Easily transitioned to mount and branch couldn’t handle his gnp. No reason why hermansson can’t do the same thing.

Going to play hermansson sub as well since dimes apparently doesn’t know how to grade taps to strikes

 

[Tony J]

Rockhold got branch down with body lock takedowns. Easily transitioned to mount and branch couldn’t handle his gnp. No reason why hermansson can’t do the same thing.

Going to play hermansson sub as well since dimes apparently doesn’t know how to grade taps to strikes

I hope you're right, but I haven't seen any evidence that Jack has Luke's strength to manhandle Branch like that. On the flip side, don't forget that Mutante dominated Jack when he wanted to take it to the ground.

 

[Soccer Steve]

So hermansson vs leites was very telling

Leites was able to get him down. Had him in a nasty arm triangle that was really tight. Leites must’ve been tired in rd two because he should’ve finished that fight. Some dumb decisions that I could only accredit to being gassed.

He switches back to half guard and then to mount in the arm triangle. He had it super tight and really let hermansson off the hook.

Had him in full mount and just laid on him. Almost has him in another arm triangle and switches to north south. Really don’t know what leites was thinking

In rd 3 leites puts him in an anaconda and lets him off the hook again.

Give credit to hermansson for surviving that super tight arm triangle with a broken rib, then in between rds he really focused and decided he was going to go for a finish and ended up getting it against a wilting leites

Hard for me to justify a 3 unit play against that man. He is younger and hungrier and branch is out of contention in the late stages of his career

Edit: switched sides to hermansson. He’s just too strong willed to lose to branch imo. Put a few units on his ko line as well.

Possibly a good live bet spot there too.

 

[DevilsPt2]

Branch will throw his jab not because he wants to strike but because he wants to feint it to draw an attack with hands, he then ducks under and attempts the takedown targeting the legs with good timing. I'm not sure this will be as effective against Hermansson as his timing is funky and hard to read, he also uses a lot of unpredictable footwork and will prob fade out of range as opposed to coming forward on Branchs jab. Hermansson loves to bodylock, this will give Branchs leg entrys and takedowns against the cage trouble since Hermansson will have dbl underhooks a lot(instead of trying to sprawl and whizzer) and Branch is most effective when he locks under his opponents butt against the cage. I actually favor Hermansson to get the takedowns in the clinch and against the cage. Have a very hard time seeing Branch get a finish and his cardio was a problem in the Cannonier fight.

 

[Johnny Bones Jones]

wouldn't totally shock me if Craig pulled off the sub, Nzech is super green on the ground, but we have barely seen Craig successfully offensively grappling in the UFC, he got a few TD's and some top position time vs Crute but was ultimately swept or reversed every time, and lost the grappling as a whole for the fight.

Berzin did gas hard in that fight, but this was during the first round, don't think he had an adrenaline dump til the start of rd 2. Now if Nzech didn't grab the shorts he might have got tapped, and he probably won't have Craig's shorts to grab to escape this time. If Craig worked on his TD entries, I'd say he has a great chance in this fight.

If he improves his takedown entries from his last fight, I think he'll sub Nze or ride it out on top to a decision. I placed a few bets on this fight as follows:

1 unit Paul Craig by submission or points (Prop) +195
0.5 unit Kennedy Nzechukwu KO RD1 (Prop) +240
1 unit Going the distance (Prop) +350
0.5 Kennedy Nzechukwu by decision (Prop) +600

My thinking is that if Nze doesn't knock him out in RD1, I can see him jab and out-strike his way to a decision or inversely I can see Craig take Nze down and pretty much maintain top control for a submission or decision.

 

[mmaday4day]

Rockhold got branch down with body lock takedowns. Easily transitioned to mount and branch couldn’t handle his gnp. No reason why hermansson can’t do the same thing.

Going to play hermansson sub as well since dimes apparently doesn’t know how to grade taps to strikes

Cockhold is 10x the grappler Hermansson is.