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UFC on ESPN 2 Barboza vs Gaethje

Johnson looked OK, Borg looked a little shaky.
 
If black belt Anton Berzin couldn't finish Nzechukwu with those sub attemps, Paul Craig isn't either. Nzech is playable. But I'm holding off because it's his debut.

Berzin didn't attempt a single sub.
 
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UFC Philadelphia official weigh-in stream in case anyone wants to see for themselves. Was also streamed on ESPN+ hosted by Ariel & Brett O.:

 
Totals out: I like Barboza/Gaethje Over 1½ at -169 and Branch/Hermansson Under 2½ at -124.
 
̶B̶e̶r̶z̶i̶n̶ ̶d̶i̶d̶n̶'̶t̶ ̶a̶t̶t̶e̶m̶p̶t̶ ̶a̶ ̶s̶i̶n̶g̶l̶e̶ ̶s̶u̶b̶.̶
Berzin only attempted 1 sub, mid-scramble, while gassing.

I put 2 units in Craig and 1u in the sub. We are in the same boat, but you are deeper in that fight, hoping for a Hungry Craig!
 
̶B̶e̶r̶z̶i̶n̶ ̶d̶i̶d̶n̶'̶t̶ ̶a̶t̶t̶e̶m̶p̶t̶ ̶a̶ ̶s̶i̶n̶g̶l̶e̶ ̶s̶u̶b̶.̶
Berzin only attempted 1 sub, mid-scramble, while gassing.
wouldn't totally shock me if Craig pulled off the sub, Nzech is super green on the ground, but we have barely seen Craig successfully offensively grappling in the UFC, he got a few TD's and some top position time vs Crute but was ultimately swept or reversed every time, and lost the grappling as a whole for the fight.

Berzin did gas hard in that fight, but this was during the first round, don't think he had an adrenaline dump til the start of rd 2. Now if Nzech didn't grab the shorts he might have got tapped, and he probably won't have Craig's shorts to grab to escape this time. If Craig worked on his TD entries, I'd say he has a great chance in this fight.
 
wouldn't totally shock me if Craig pulled off the sub, Nzech is super green on the ground, but we have barely seen Craig successfully offensively grappling in the UFC, he got a few TD's and some top position time vs Crute but was ultimately swept or reversed every time, and lost the grappling as a whole for the fight.

Berzin did gas hard in that fight, but this was during the first round, don't think he had an adrenaline dump til the start of rd 2. Now if Nzech didn't grab the shorts he might have got tapped, and he probably won't have Craig's shorts to grab to escape this time. If Craig worked on his TD entries, I'd say he has a great chance in this fight.

For long stretches Craig was happy to take Crute down, and pretty much lay and grind. This is definitely a ptv for him against Nz as well. Nz probably can't sweep like Crute was doing. Nz probably has no sub threat.

My bet on Craig is foolish given how much I'm using the word 'probably'. But dammit this is Craig's fight to lose anyways.
 
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