UFC on ESPN 2 Barboza vs Gaethje

LiquidNuke said:
After rewatching Elliot slapping the shit out of Rosa in guard for an entire round before finding a choke in the 2nd, I feel pretty good about Perez ITD honestly.
Click to expand...

Value and confidence. Half the battle. Just stay away from those parlays you love!
 
Soccer Steve said:
Value and confidence. Half the battle. Just stay away from those parlays you love!
Click to expand...

I'm trying, honest to god! <45>:oops: I'm embarrassed as fuck to be known as that parlay guy, lol. Shouldn't that go to Ascension? Or is he exempt because his parlays hit sometimes? <Lmaoo>
 
Last edited:
Naught2Sixty said:
Thanks for the insight as always breh. You'll make an account at BOL or something eventually I feel and get back in the game lol. I'm sure you enjoy the stress free life of just being a fan but degen gonna degen.
Click to expand...

I'm sure I will at some point. Honestly, watching tape last night was cool because I didn't feel that pressure of watching every minute of each fight. I was watching hoops and baseball at the same time. It was more leisure and didn't feel like work, and I figured I'd share my insights here for anyone who cares. It also helps me a bit as I'm still throwing a few lineups in the DK GPP's on the cards I plan on watching. So I do have SOME rooting interest, but it isn't the same.

But yeah I know someday I'll jump back in with another site, although honestly it may be a long time (like when my daughter heads off to college ha ha). When I get to Vegas (these days I'm lucky if that's once per year) I will for sure be making some bigger plays though.
 
Naught2Sixty said:
I think there's value on Kenney at +2xx. Dunno how anyone could back Borg as a steep-ish favorite after missing weight a class above and all the personal issues and injuries hes been going through. Don't call me cold hearted, I follow Borg on Twitter and his story is heartbreaking as fuck but at the end of the day I'm about value and that's where I see it.

Kenney is a decent wrestler and his style kinda mirrors the folk style we see be extremely successful in mma. I think it translates well. Gillespie, DC, Askren to name of a few users of this style. Kenney stands out in control, rides, and mat returns to me. I think his fight against Brandon Royval is a good indicator of this where he basically rode the dude for 25 minutes.

I think Casey is the more opposing man in the cage and a better finisher. I see a lot to like about +2xx.
Click to expand...

Yeah originally I thought this step up in competition was too much for Kennedy (admittedly I've only seen two of his fights) but I agree there's way too many red flags with Borg. And this morning I watched his fight vs Scoggins and noticed something: If he gets the worst of the first couple scrambles, he mentally checks out. For those live betting, keep an eye on it. If round one is really close but Borg is losing the scrambles, you might be able to crush the books with Kennedy at a nice + line.
 
Naught2Sixty said:
I think there's value on Kenney at +2xx. Dunno how anyone could back Borg as a steep-ish favorite after missing weight a class above and all the personal issues and injuries hes been going through. Don't call me cold hearted, I follow Borg on Twitter and his story is heartbreaking as fuck but at the end of the day I'm about value and that's where I see it.

Kenney is a decent wrestler and his style kinda mirrors the folk style we see be extremely successful in mma. I think it translates well. Gillespie, DC, Askren to name of a few users of this style. Kenney stands out in control, rides, and mat returns to me. I think his fight against Brandon Royval is a good indicator of this where he basically rode the dude for 25 minutes.

I think Casey is the more opposing man in the cage and a better finisher. I see a lot to like about +2xx.
Click to expand...

I'm on him for 1U.

I like to fade fighters coming off a title loss that are a favourite anyway, so this guy actually being good on top of that, the long layoff and moving up in weight (and missing weight) is music to my ears.

Considering putting another unit on it but probably shouldn't, marathon and not a sprint...
 
mkess101 said:
Yeah originally I thought this step up in competition was too much for Kennedy (admittedly I've only seen two of his fights) but I agree there's way too many red flags with Borg. And this morning I watched his fight vs Scoggins and noticed something: If he gets the worst of the first couple scrambles, he mentally checks out. For those live betting, keep an eye on it. If round one is really close but Borg is losing the scrambles, you might be able to crush the books with Kennedy at a nice + line.
Click to expand...

Kenney*


Kennedy is the guy who's gonna get smashed into obscurity by Paul Craig, so prays my bankroll. ;)
 
mkess101 said:
I'm sure I will at some point. Honestly, watching tape last night was cool because I didn't feel that pressure of watching every minute of each fight. I was watching hoops and baseball at the same time. It was more leisure and didn't feel like work, and I figured I'd share my insights here for anyone who cares. It also helps me a bit as I'm still throwing a few lineups in the DK GPP's on the cards I plan on watching. So I do have SOME rooting interest, but it isn't the same.

But yeah I know someday I'll jump back in with another site, although honestly it may be a long time (like when my daughter heads off to college ha ha). When I get to Vegas (these days I'm lucky if that's once per year) I will for sure be making some bigger plays though.
Click to expand...
Nice. I've actually never been to Vegas except on a layover to Seattle lol. Really thinking about taking a couple of G's down there to put on Gastelum vs Izzy :eek:.
 
Oh man, Alex Perez getting steamed all the way to -450...

Do not want!
 
So many heavy faves to start the card booooo I'm gonna have myself a 3 piece favorite combo of Perez + Borg + Hollad for some action
 
betterthanjones said:
So many heavy faves to start the card booooo I'm gonna have myself a 3 piece favorite combo of Perez + Borg + Hollad for some action
Click to expand...

Why would you ever bet Borg? He's in a terrible spot and primed to perform poorly...
 
Soccer Steve said:
Kenney*


Kennedy is the guy who's gonna get smashed into obscurity by Paul Craig, so prays my bankroll. ;)
Click to expand...

Yeah sorry, Kenney LOL.

If Craig survives the early onslaught he's got a chance. He has a tricky guard too, could catch a sub. I wouldn't touch that fight probably. I don't think super highly of Nzechukwu but Craig is too hard to figure out. He's a punching bag sometimes, but is pretty tough. He has slick bjj, but crappy wrestling. His cardio doesn't look great, but is likely better than Kenney's. Can't knock a play at decent dog odds I guess.
 
LiquidNuke said:
Why would you ever bet Borg? He's in a terrible spot and primed to perform poorly...
Click to expand...

Yeah why's that? I'm mostly sherbro fight finder capping these fights and as far as my memory serves me Borg isn't overrated.
 
betterthanjones said:
Yeah why's that? I'm mostly sherbro fight finder capping these fights and as far as my memory serves me Borg isn't overrated.
Click to expand...

18 months of inactivity, he blew weight and looked bad on the scales, injuries, issues with his family and daughter...
 
Naught2Sixty said:
Nice. I've actually never been to Vegas except on a layover to Seattle lol. Really thinking about taking a couple of G's down there to put on Gastelum vs Izzy :eek:.
Click to expand...

I'm older now so it's pretty tame when I go (and odds are the wife is with me--although I still drink way more than I probably should when I'm there). But man that place...it's honestly like an alternate reality. So much fun, but I'm at the point that I need like 2 days to recover when I get home.

Last year when I was out there I got Machida at -160 vs Belfort. Put $1600 to win a G. Then the line spiked up to over -200, but that was my big score.
 
LiquidNuke said:
18 months of inactivity, he blew weight and looked bad on the scales, injuries, issues with his family and daughter...
Click to expand...

well sounds like a recipe for disaster already. Good to know good to know we'll find out very shortly
 
mkess101 said:
I'm older now so it's pretty tame when I go (and odds are the wife is with me--although I still drink way more than I probably should when I'm there). But man that place...it's honestly like an alternate reality. So much fun, but I'm at the point that I need like 2 days to recover when I get home.

Last year when I was out there I got Machida at -160 vs Belfort. Put $1600 to win a G. Then the line spiked up to over -200, but that was my big score.
Click to expand...
Hilarious. Fading Vitor was the play there for sure. Probably the easiest G you made besides Gall over Punk eh. I'm excited to go but I'm not one to go balls to wall partying anymore. Always imagined it would be hilariously fun but I would hate drunk douchers I always happen to run into. Maybe I'm the drunk douche though oh shit.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,237,127
Messages
55,468,843
Members
174,787
Latest member
Biden's Diaper

Share this page

Back
Top