UFC on ESPN 2 Barboza vs Gaethje

betterthanjones said:
Still waiting for the odds on Justin "CTE" Gathej to rise rise rise. Close to +130 and I think he's worth a bet
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Bet365 has his TKO/KO or DEC at 2.37. He ain’t subbing Barboza.
 
Craig deservedly underdog imo, looked really bad against Ankalaev, will probably backpedal from the start and get clipped.
 
Doc R said:
1u Barboza in Rd1 +450
1u Kyler Phillips +325
2u Michael Johnson -120
1u Michelle Waterson +125

Bet the prop on Barboza but don't have a strong inclination of how this one will turn out so I may just stay away from more.
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Just a heads up, Phillips is off the card. Replaced by Casey Kenney.
 
I have a few more thoughts for anyone interested. @Naught2Sixty and a few others value my opinions still even though I stepped away from betting once I got limited, so when I have a little extra time I'll watch a bit of tape and offer up what I think. Hasn't been too often but I actually was chilling last night and watched a few fights (full disclosure: was also watching hoops and my Brewers so wasn't 100% focused on the fights the whole time). Here's what I did see though (and I'm sure you guys covered a lot of it already, and if so I apologize but no way am I reading back through the whole thread):

Gaethje/Barboza: At first I thought moderate juice on Barboza was probably justified. After watching a few fights I've changed my mind. The biggest takeaway I got was how average Edson can look when he's not given room to operate. People point to his fights with Lee and Khabib but that's not really what I'm talking about. Yeah, Justin has said he'll consider wrestling (which would probably be a good idea) but does anyone REALLY believe that? The fight that really made me like Justin here was Barboza vs Dariush. Inside the pocked, Beneil was beating Edson to the punch literally in EVERY exchange. I mean, the fight wasn't even really close, it would have been a shutout for Dariush. Edson landed a brilliantly timed knee for the highlight KO, but prior to that he was getting schooled. If you watch when he's most effective, it's at distance. His fight with Pettis being a great example. Yes, in his last fight with Hooker Edson looked better in the pocket than previously, but that really looked to be more a case of Hooker being too tentative early and getting beat up to the point where he had nothing to offer after about the first 6 or 7 minutes. Gaethje throws heat when he pressures and actually has nice offensive combos in the pocket. He'll get tagged too (obviously) but I think his style plays well to avoiding the spaces where Edson is most dangerous while allowing Justin to do work on his own. The issue is that Edson is capable of landing a strike ending fight at any moment, regardless of how things are going (again, see the Dariush fight as prime example). He also does solid body work, something that's given Gaethje problems. That said, at dog odds I think the play is Gaethje here. If he wrestles some, even more reason to like him. But even if he doesn't, I think the fight is a coin toss at worst for Justin.

Waterston/KK: First off, it's WMMA. We'll get that out of the way first. Barring having an insanely strong lean, I honestly don't really advocate making huge plays on it. Some of that is just personal bias because of the sometimes erratic nature of the performances from fight to fight. I think as time goes by that will smooth out maybe, but that's just my disclaimer. Anyway, I think the books are giving value on KK here. -145 is somewhat cheap, I cap her closer to -200. Waterston really isn't special anywhere, even if she's solid all around. But I don't think her wrestling is good enough to get this to the mat, and I think she's a full step below KK striking. I think KK getting blasted by Andrade the way she did is baked into this line, but that fight really has zero bearing on this matchup. Waterston has zero power standing that KK needs to respect. That should allow KK to keep her hips back and avoid being taken down. Waterston isn't good enough with combos to fight her way in, she'll likely get tagged repeatedly doing it. And if she fights at distance, I don't think she's good enough to consistently score and not be hit. I think KK cruises to a pretty clear decision here. KK dec at -110 doesn't have enough value when her ML is -145, but if her -3.5 line has nice odds (not released yet that I saw) that could be a consideration too.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
It's possible Santos wasn't taking a guy who tapped to strikes seriously and had his hands down low during the fight, and got caught with a perfectly placed punch which can end anyone's night in an instant like we've seen in the past few main events lol.

It's cliched and sounds stupid but that whole thing about "fighting is 90% mental" to me strongly resonates when it comes to branch vs hermansson. They're polar opposites in that regard and it's really scary to bet on a guy who gives up, especially vs someone who's above average toughness like Hermansson + being hungry. Imo to me this element is more important than branch being better in an area or 2 of fighting.
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Def legit points. A lot of guys who are way better at this than I am are on Herm. Good luck tonight.
 
I’m betting Moroz small for action. She’s been training in better camps for past year so maybe she has turned her game around. She’ll be at range disadvantage for the first time in years, so maybe that also makes air punching less desirable strategy.
 
Just a reminder that Jim Crute also looked very green in his contender series fight. After beating Craig in a weird fight he looked way better koing Alvey. I wouldn’t put too much weight on these early performances of these young guys especially if they fight very low level competition in the UFC.

Don’t be surprised if Craig craigs again lol
 
Rickson said:
Just a reminder that Jim Crute also looked very green in his contender series fight. After beating Craig in a weird fight he looked way better koing Alvey. I wouldn’t put too much weight on these early performances of these young guys especially if they fight very low level competition in the UFC.

Don’t be surprised if Craig craigs again lol
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Craig could definitely get wrecked, but I don't see any sane reason to play Nzech at anything better than coinflip odds in his first real fight.
 
mkess101 said:
I have a few more thoughts for anyone interested. @Naught2Sixty and a few others value my opinions still even though I stepped away from betting once I got limited, so when I have a little extra time I'll watch a bit of tape and offer up what I think. Hasn't been too often but I actually was chilling last night and watched a few fights (full disclosure: was also watching hoops and my Brewers so wasn't 100% focused on the fights the whole time). Here's what I did see though (and I'm sure you guys covered a lot of it already, and if so I apologize but no way am I reading back through the whole thread):

Gaethje/Barboza: At first I thought moderate juice on Barboza was probably justified. After watching a few fights I've changed my mind. The biggest takeaway I got was how average Edson can look when he's not given room to operate. People point to his fights with Lee and Khabib but that's not really what I'm talking about. Yeah, Justin has said he'll consider wrestling (which would probably be a good idea) but does anyone REALLY believe that? The fight that really made me like Justin here was Barboza vs Dariush. Inside the pocked, Beneil was beating Edson to the punch literally in EVERY exchange. I mean, the fight wasn't even really close, it would have been a shutout for Dariush. Edson landed a brilliantly timed knee for the highlight KO, but prior to that he was getting schooled. If you watch when he's most effective, it's at distance. His fight with Pettis being a great example. Yes, in his last fight with Hooker Edson looked better in the pocket than previously, but that really looked to be more a case of Hooker being too tentative early and getting beat up to the point where he had nothing to offer after about the first 6 or 7 minutes. Gaethje throws heat when he pressures and actually has nice offensive combos in the pocket. He'll get tagged too (obviously) but I think his style plays well to avoiding the spaces where Edson is most dangerous while allowing Justin to do work on his own. The issue is that Edson is capable of landing a strike ending fight at any moment, regardless of how things are going (again, see the Dariush fight as prime example). He also does solid body work, something that's given Gaethje problems. That said, at dog odds I think the play is Gaethje here. If he wrestles some, even more reason to like him. But even if he doesn't, I think the fight is a coin toss at worst for Justin.

Waterston/KK: First off, it's WMMA. We'll get that out of the way first. Barring having an insanely strong lean, I honestly don't really advocate making huge plays on it. Some of that is just personal bias because of the sometimes erratic nature of the performances from fight to fight. I think as time goes by that will smooth out maybe, but that's just my disclaimer. Anyway, I think the books are giving value on KK here. -145 is somewhat cheap, I cap her closer to -200. Waterston really isn't special anywhere, even if she's solid all around. But I don't think her wrestling is good enough to get this to the mat, and I think she's a full step below KK striking. I think KK getting blasted by Andrade the way she did is baked into this line, but that fight really has zero bearing on this matchup. Waterston has zero power standing that KK needs to respect. That should allow KK to keep her hips back and avoid being taken down. Waterston isn't good enough with combos to fight her way in, she'll likely get tagged repeatedly doing it. And if she fights at distance, I don't think she's good enough to consistently score and not be hit. I think KK cruises to a pretty clear decision here. KK dec at -110 doesn't have enough value when her ML is -145, but if her -3.5 line has nice odds (not released yet that I saw) that could be a consideration too.
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Thanks for the insight as always breh. You'll make an account at BOL or something eventually I feel and get back in the game lol. I'm sure you enjoy the stress free life of just being a fan but degen gonna degen.
 
Gugabe said:
Craig could definitely get wrecked, but I don't see any sane reason to play Nzech at anything better than coinflip odds in his first real fight.
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I’m not betting it at all. Even though Kenny is still very green, I could never bet Paul Craig.
 
Yotsuya said:
I’m betting Moroz small for action. She’s been training in better camps for past year so maybe she has turned her game around. She’ll be at range disadvantage for the first time in years, so maybe that also makes air punching less desirable strategy.
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If she was fighting against air I would max bet her

Guess I forgot to add I switched sides to Mazo after tape

Moroz has looked pretty bad in her last few fights

Rocked by Danielle Taylor
Outboxed by Esparza
Outclassed by hill

Her best win is a gifted armbar courtesy of jojo calderwood 4 years ago

She actually looked better back then

Mazo fights long and has great range control as well as a tight jab and a hard kick that she used to knock out back to back broads unconscious

Moroz does not move off the center line after she strikes nor does she move her head.

She also thinks she can win fights by punching and kicking the air 100 times a round

Mazo should make her look stupid
 
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Anyone want snacks for the events? Get yo'selves a Texas sized schooner and shit ahh yeah... I don't know wtf a schooner is though... :(

 
I'm rewatching Mark De la Rosa's last bout against Joby Sanchez and his mediocre defense is a real issue/red flag for me. He simply doesn't slip punches or move his head. Jabs, left hooks... Joby repeatedly lands on him, busting his face and nose up.

Perez just lit up and stopped a prospect with a very similar bevy of defensive issues even though Perez is hardly known as a top shelf striker.
 
LiquidNuke said:
I'm rewatching Mark De la Rosa's last bout against Joby Sanchez and his mediocre defense is a real issue/red flag for me. He simply doesn't slip punches or move his head. Jabs, left hooks... Joby repeatedly lands on him, busting his face and nose up.

Perez just lit up and stopped a prospect with a very similar bevy of defensive issues even though Perez is hardly known as a top shelf striker.
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(Reply to you from the bets thread) I have 0.25u on sub. Heavy on ML. Getting too cute on props is an expensive lesson sometimes.
 
I think there's value on Kenney at +2xx. Dunno how anyone could back Borg as a steep-ish favorite after missing weight a class above and all the personal issues and injuries hes been going through. Don't call me cold hearted, I follow Borg on Twitter and his story is heartbreaking as fuck but at the end of the day I'm about value and that's where I see it.

Kenney is a decent wrestler and his style kinda mirrors the folk style we see be extremely successful in mma. I think it translates well. Gillespie, DC, Askren to name of a few users of this style. Kenney stands out in control, rides, and mat returns to me. I think his fight against Brandon Royval is a good indicator of this where he basically rode the dude for 25 minutes.

I think Casey is the more opposing man in the cage and a better finisher. I see a lot to like about +2xx.
 
Soccer Steve said:
(Reply to you from the bets thread) I have 0.25u on sub. Heavy on ML. Getting too cute on props is an expensive lesson sometimes.
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After rewatching Elliot slapping the shit out of Rosa in guard for an entire round before finding a choke in the 2nd, I feel pretty good about Perez ITD honestly.
 
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