UFC on ESPN 2 Barboza vs Gaethje

How is Aguilar's stamina? Barzola has that Peruvian mountain cardio, he shoots forever and ever and ever with those blast doubles.
 
How exactly does Hermansson win this? He's not a power striker, he doesn't have elite you jitsu, Branch has better wrestling than he does

I can't see a reason not to go all in on Branch other than the idea that he's unmotivated, but it's his last chance at a run and he's highly unlikely to be disillusioned like he was after spending 18 weeks training for a fighter he'd been calling out for a year and still got taken away from him at the last minute
 
No idea about the main event.

The most important factor here is how Gaethje plans to fight. Will he fight more measured like he did against Vick after 2 KO losses or will we see the maniac Gaethje again ?
 
Got my dick kicked in on the Nashville card..

Gotta bounce back
 
This card doesn’t look very good to me for betting. Too many close fights.
 
I think I remember seeing some of you guys mentioning having Desmond Green as a part of a parlay in the previous thread. Seeing him at -350 atm, what should he be capped at?
 
What's the argument for Sabina Mazo?

She's been can crushing in LFA (one of the strongest feeder organisations out don't get me wrong, but her opponents specifically were either cans or can crushers), Moroz's losses really haven't been that bad, and it doesn't seem like Mazo has a wrestling background? I definitely don't rate Moroz, but a debutant at near -200 is a huge call
 
Fuck it, I’m taking Micheal Johnson for 1,5U. He should be able to outstrike Emmet here.
 
OutRun said:
How is Aguilar's stamina? Barzola has that Peruvian mountain cardio, he shoots forever and ever and ever with those blast doubles.
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I took 2U on Barzola at -118. If you watch Aguilar's fights against Gomez (incomplete on fight pass) and Jackson, he was taken down and spent considerable time on his back. His cardio and heart is good, and got power in his hands but this matchup favours Barzola imo.
 
Desmond Green is a lock.
I like Perez too, Gaethie should win this with his pressure also.
 
What you guys think of chukwu vs Paul Craig? Craig seems to have a quitter spirit when it doesnt turn out his way. So this chukwu guy seems to be a good bet (decent boxing, great kicks, good pressure)
 
Feel I'm gonna end up stabbing Pearson here. He's really not as a shot as people make out. Still has solid technique and a good chin.
 
Bastaille said:
What you guys think of chukwu vs Paul Craig? Craig seems to have a quitter spirit when it doesnt turn out his way. So this chukwu guy seems to be a good bet (decent boxing, great kicks, good pressure)
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“Quitter spirit” is strange way to describe someone who just a year ago was dominated for 14 minutes and 59 seconds of a fight yet still snatched up a miracle come-from-behind submission with one second left on the clock.
 
longway said:
I took 2U on Barzola at -118. If you watch Aguilar's fights against Gomez (incomplete on fight pass) and Jackson, he was taken down and spent considerable time on his back. His cardio and heart is good, and got power in his hands but this matchup favours Barzola imo.
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Gomez fight was at 155 on a couple weeks notice. Jackson fight was a couple years ago. I’m not saying they don’t matter but I don’t think those fights show who is he now. Barzola has good takedowns off the fence but his control is not good. I could see Barzola outpointing aguilar bc of the takedowns but his standup is not great and constantly has hands down. I believe aguilar will win the standup exchanges and the fight.
 
feel like gaethje can't rely on chin and hands up and try and block shots in the pocket v barbosa.

I think Barbosa gets it done, likely KO. As long as he can keeps gaethje at range and not get clipped.
 
Gaethje v Barb is a fascinating fight to me. I think Gaethje, as every pressure fighter there is - is vulnerable with the body shots. They take a lot of the stamina and occupies one's defences, cause you can't take every single one of them shots flush to the body, you have to block and when you do you slow down your counters significantly. I remember that Vick's kicks had a visible effect on Gaethje. I like the fact that Edson came back to ATT, a smart move IMO. Still I don't think we'll see a significant change from him (apart from increased confidence) or from Justin.

I think finally Justin recongised he can't win with his WSOF style in the UFC. Nearly all top ranked guys here have great stamina and chins, and they have to - it's UFC's lightweight division, the best fighters in the world are here. You are gonna lose most of your battles, if you only depend on chin and cardio. He knows if this fight goes past the 3rd he most likely is going to lose, his 2 wins inside the UFC are inside 2 rounds. He can't just outcondition Edson, Edson has great cardio. Especially if he gets kicked in the body for a couple of rounds.

I think we either see Gaethje with the similar early knockout like in his Vick fight, or he gets kicked in the body repeatedly for 5 rounds, maybe even I can see a knee knockout from Edson, the way Justin bends is asking to get kneed in the face. What y'all guys think?
 
I'm 4u in on Paul Craig @2.85. I don't think Kennedy looks that good, and he hasn't exactly been fighting the sharpest competition. His best win is probably a split decision against Anton Berzin back in 2017. Anybody care to tell why it's me and not the line that is crazy?
 
BaruchSpinoza said:
I'm 4u in on Paul Craig @2.85. I don't think Kennedy looks that good, and he hasn't exactly been fighting the sharpest competition. His best win is probably a split decision against Anton Berzin back in 2017. Anybody care to tell why it's me and not the line that is crazy?
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You should never bet 4u on someone who will get cut in the near future. I get it that you don’t believe in the younger, less experienced guy but 4u means that you are very confident and you shouldn’t be confident at all betting Paul Craig lol.
 
csufwrestler said:
Gomez fight was at 155 on a couple weeks notice. Jackson fight was a couple years ago. I’m not saying they don’t matter but I don’t think those fights show who is he now. Barzola has good takedowns off the fence but his control is not good. I could see Barzola outpointing aguilar bc of the takedowns but his standup is not great and constantly has hands down. I believe aguilar will win the standup exchanges and the fight.
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You can only go by what you see. Yes, Aguilar can use his footwork and jab to keep Barzola away, and perhaps even get a TKO, but Barzola has taken on plenty of strikers with good TDD and has consistently taken all down multiple times, each time it gets harder to get back up.

His striking is a little underrated, but yeah, Aguilar is the better boxer. But he doesnt use kicks much, and Barzola loves the low kick, and uses movement well to avoid the counter, and has a decent jab of his own.

He is also v strong and shows up well conditioned.

Im not saying there is no PTV for Aguilar, but at these odds, Barzola has value imo. I put on another 0.5U at -130.
 
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