UFC on ESPN+ 25 Anderson vs Blachowicz II



I’ll edit and post time stamps later and will post SoundCloud, ITunes, and Spotify link later.

Will also edit and post summary later.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
Have a few big parlays ending with Corey the first fighter I locked in. I see the fight in very simple terms - both fighters improved 5 years later but still same stylistic matchup ultimately so I don't see why the results will differ. Also with 5 years later comes the fact that Jan is 37y old and the slower fighter/worse cardio in Mexico elevation. @Gugabe thoughts on Anderson getting a late finish say rounds 4 or 5? Thinking of adding small amounts to them though the decision play is tempting too.

Merab was like -220 for a while and very recently dropped to -160 in my book. I'm curious if money will continue going into Kenney as the week progresses. I was on him vs Bermudez cause he's not a great grappler, but I think he's outclassed on the feet and ground vs Merab here.
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Anderson late finish is possible, but I kinda like Jan's guard retention/durability unless he just ultra gasses out.

Wiktoruspro said:
Bontorin and Kenney are great dogs with 70% chance to win.
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I don't usually play favorites but Merab fucks Kenney up unless he really fucks up here. I maxed Kenney against Bermudez and played him against Borg, but IMO Merab's a guy you really need to KO to beat and Kenney isn't really that guy.
 
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Gugabe said:
Anderson 30-25'd Jan the first time, and I don't see any real differences in his wrestling defense that'll change that result.
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His wrestling defense hasn't improved but since his loss to Cummins in 2017 his cardio definitely has. He looked gassed halfway through round 1 of the first fight vs Anderson. I still don't see him being able to keep up with Corey's pace over 5 rounds, but it does leave a much longer window for him to get the finish he most likely needs to win here.

Corey has been a big money maker for me lately. He closed as the underdog against Walker, Latifi and Glover. But, I don't like the idea of betting him at -200+ against arguably a tougher matchup with his defensive/chin issues.
 
NonPhixion said:
His chin held up pretty well last fight from memory. He shrugged off bombs. Don’t think his chin is an issue at all
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I wouldn't bet Townsend. The guy has no urgency to finish fights or even do anything when losing.
 
BigSteve said:
Think the favs will clean up this card. Perreira, Wood, Paiva, Rosa, and Holtzman are all odds sticking out at me.
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Holtmanz - if Miller's wrestling is still half decent then he might be able to squeeze a win (Miller believe it or not was a NCAA D1 wrestler) . Nik Lentz was able to get a boring ass decision win from holtzman so..
Holtzman is 1 year older and Miller has like 2x the experience Holtzman does.
 
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Gugabe said:
Anderson late finish is possible, but I kinda like Jan's guard retention/durability unless he just ultra gasses out.



I don't usually play favorites but Merab fucks Kenney up unless he really fucks up here. I maxed Kenney against Bermudez and played him against Borg, but IMO Merab's a guy you really need to KO to beat and Kenney isn't really that guy.
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Merab has no legit wins, only bums. Casey defeated Borg and undefeated Bermudez.
 
I may be the only one on Jan here, but i dont care :)
I think he has improved a lot more than Corey from the first fight. His TDD may not be perfect but he has developed some pritty nasty submission game (Devin Clark, Nikyta Krylov) and some pretty solid dirty boxing, which he uses very well on the exit of the clinches (Luke Rockhold). Also, he said in the Hewlani show today that he is in New Mexico for 2 weeks, which i think can affect his cardio in a positive direction.
Corey`s boxing is very good, but i think it hasnt been tested against a solid opponent. None of his last 4 opponents has good boxing skills. His chin is also a concern, Latifi is a guy that hits hard, but is throwing mostly choatic punches, which you can easily defend, so i dont think this has to be mentioned so often.
Ofcourse Corey has the cardio advantage, but i think Jan can crack him before the championship rounds.
 
northsofia said:
I may be the only one on Jan here, but i dont care :)
I think he has improved a lot more than Corey from the first fight. His TDD may not be perfect but he has developed some pritty nasty submission game (Devin Clark, Nikyta Krylov) and some pretty solid dirty boxing, which he uses very well on the exit of the clinches (Luke Rockhold). Also, he said in the Hewlani show today that he is in New Mexico for 2 weeks, which i think can affect his cardio in a positive direction.
Corey`s boxing is very good, but i think it hasnt been tested against a solid opponent. None of his last 4 opponents has good boxing skills. His chin is also a concern, Latifi is a guy that hits hard, but is throwing mostly choatic punches, which you can easily defend, so i dont think this has to be mentioned so often.
Ofcourse Corey has the cardio advantage, but i think Jan can crack him before the championship rounds.
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I got Corey -140 but can't argue with a Jan bet at these odds. My biggest concerns are the clinch breaks and leg kicks of Jan. Sub not really a worry at all.
 
Sadistics said:
I got Corey -140 but can't argue with a Jan bet at these odds. My biggest concerns are the clinch breaks and leg kicks of Jan. Sub not really a worry at all.
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What else u got Mr.Sadistic. Tough one this one I recon.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
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UPDATED WITH TIME STAMPS

Guest: @LEMONZEST



>> Spotify Link <<

@6:35 de la Rosa/Paiva
@11:35 Chiasson/young
@14:18 Kenny/Dvalishvili
@22:15 Clark/Townsend
@28:50 Miller/Holtzman
@36:01 Dodson/Wood
@43:52 Means/Rodriguez
@52:25 Vannata/Medeiros
@1:01 Borg/Bontorin
@1:08:10 Weaver/Vargas
@1:12:30 De la Rosa/Borella
@1:13:30 Sanchez/Perreira
@1:18:35 Anderson/Jan

Summarizing my initial thoughts:

-Paiva dec -105 (hope it goes up to at least +120)
-Kenny dec +235 has value, but should go o2.5
-Clark NOT ITD -270, would never bet Clark as a huge fav. Value on 2Chainz
-Miller dec +410 I’m considering for value sake, will consider o2.5, not confident in Miller age
-Wants to bet Wood -160 but unsure of New Mexico judging and step up
-Wants to bet Means -260 but unsure who Rodriguez is
-Borg/Bontorin maybe o2.5 if it’s cheaper
-Yancy/Vannata maybe o2.5? Man heart attack special if I play it
-Weaver not that good but neither is other guy. I’ll maybe lean o2.5
-Anderson/Jan i think goes o4.5
 
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Weaver should have a solid grappling advantage here. Don't hate that he was at 247 getting a feel for the big stage either.
 
Wiki cappin but y’all not concerned Weaver went to a split with Krazy Horse?

Also anyone else concerned that Krazy Horse has a better Native American name than Weaver?
 
To Kenny's credit he used to fight at 125 he took a catch weight fight against Manny at 140. Kenny said he weighed 145 on fight night, even the commentary team said Manny probably had 10-20 pounds on Kenny.
Literally just watched that one lol, good stuff his strike defense concerned me but most of Manny's control seemed to stem from being in a different weight class.
 
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