UFC on ESPN+ 25 Anderson vs Blachowicz II

[Rebel_LioN]

Devin Clark

Dequan be smokin on that gas

<{monica}>

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Thoughts on De La Rosa doing good in the boxing? Or do you think Paiva is just too big

Rosa will be cut after this fight, Paiva will smoke him. Dont bet Rosa, he has 5% to win.
Bontorin
Casey
Borello
Blachowicz
This dogs have a high chance to win, dont bet bum Rosa

 

[DevilsPt2]

That's my biggest concern, he has decent combinations and is willing to eat 1 to land 3.



At current odds I'd be passing on Paiva, but would need closer to +250 to play DLR personally. Despite DLR being a black belt I think it's pretty clear that Paiva is the better MMA grappler. I don't see DLR hitting TDs and actually think he gets reversed trying. Off his back he seems content to play guard.

I see DLR as the worst FLW on the roster. He's unathletic, flat footed, lacks the wrestling to get his mediocre BJJ game going, and is often forced to rely on volume boxing to win a decision. Both guys are fighting for their job, both are hella durable, and both love to come forward, it's gonna be fun.

In the Bontorin fight Paiva comes out and maintain about the same distance for about 30 seconds, as Bontorin breaks Paivas space, Paiva allows it and plants briefly to counter Bontorins lead left hook, he then immediately makes space. Now on Paivas next attack, hes not countering, hes initiating. He makes subtle movements to keep the distance he wants and then he darts in when he sees an opening, exiting on an angle. If Paiva decides to plant his feet and counter, Rosa will have an opportunity at the takedown or the clinch. If Paiva decides to bide his time and burst into a sudden attack, Rosa can time a pretty easy takedown. Rosa has shown the ability to time takedowns, shoot at the legs and get takedowns from the clinch. I didnt like the way Paiva was defending the first takedown against Bontorin. He didnt know what to do without underhook so he tried to pull Bontorin up by going over the shoulder into the armpit, basically using his fingers to defend the takedown. Rosa does not have good takedowns in space, if he tres to shoot its not likely to work. I also worry about possible reversals if Paiva defends in an unorthodox way. I still would not be confident Paiva does not get taken down more than once, this fight is going 15 minutes and Paivas TDD is not near bulletproof.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Omg guys dont bet this bum Rosa. You got nice plus numbers on other dogs.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Got around to watching tape on new guy Daniel Rodriguez, he’s actually a pretty good fighter with good hands. He’s not that fast but he knows how to fundamentally box. Has a clean 1-2 and moves his head decently well. He has his eyes wide open in the pocket and isn’t afraid to exchange. Has good power with both hands.

I think he’s going to bring it in his debut. My pick is still Tim Means however. I think Means just outworks him and throws more volume at him. Possible late finish as Means tends to brings a solid pace in later rounds. I’d be interested to see who takes the back step here, I’d think that Means would be leading the dance but if Rod does that then there’s a chance he could look good. To be fair though I didn’t watch his Dana White fight just most of his YouTube stuff.

I’m looking at the over as well.

Either way, Rodriguez looks like he belongs. Probably in the 20-30 tier at 170. But WW is deep though so maybe more towards the 30 ranks.

 

[2020Tracked]

Got around to watching tape on new guy Daniel Rodriguez, he’s actually a pretty good fighter with good hands. He’s not that fast but he knows how to fundamentally box. Has a clean 1-2 and moves his head decently well. He has his eyes wide open in the pocket and isn’t afraid to exchange. Has good power with both hands.

I think he’s going to bring it in his debut. My pick is still Tim Means however. I think Means just outworks him and throws more volume at him. Possible late finish as Means tends to brings a solid pace in later rounds. I’d be interested to see who takes the back step here, I’d think that Means would be leading the dance but if Rod does that then there’s a chance he could look good. To be fair though I didn’t watch his Dana White fight just most of his YouTube stuff.

I’m looking at the over as well.

Either way, Rodriguez looks like he belongs. Probably in the 20-30 tier at 170. But WW is deep though so maybe more towards the 30 ranks.

Dog or pass at the current price?

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Dog or pass at the current price?

Only dog, Means is nothing special like Morono.

 

[Sono07]

Who are the gassers on this card? I wasn’t aware at first that this fight was going to be at Elevation.

Just a guess off past performances.
Lando, Jan, Pereira (his style at least burns alot of energy). Curious to see what elevation everyone (those 3 especially) have been training at.

 

[SolarSeiko]

Just a guess off past performances.
Lando, Jan, Pereira (his style at least burns alot of energy). Curious to see what elevation everyone (those 3 especially) have been training at.

Jan might do better than you think in terms of gas, he just fought Jacare in a 5 rounder and I believe he does train with Phil Davis for wrestling.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Dog or pass at the current price?

O1.5 (-150) for me.

Current price is just a pass for me, I would love to play Means ML but I may play his decision prop at +285 or his 3rd round TKO +825 in case he starts pouring it on at elevation. Maybe the added notion of first fight jitters for Roddy.

Both of them have been incarcerated in the past, they both are super tough individuals that probably eat nails for breakfast and use sand paper for TP.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Dont lose money on ,bum'blebee

 

[Vir_Ars]

How see the people De la Rosa winning against Borella? I see borella winning in the clinch, I think that De la Rosa is weak, Borella is way stronger.

Both have terrible striking
De la Rosa is lean, good jiu jitsu, no top control
Borella is heavy on top

this fight might come to strengh and to me Borella can win there, but not confident in neither.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Don't you think at boxing range he will get picked apart by the bigger longer man? I know it dosen't always mater but Paiva actually does fight very long, on top of having an insane chin. He was picking Kai appart and cut Bontorin with a lead counter hook. DLR has no head movement despite the good chin and boxing.

DLR doesn't move his head but he keeps his hands up, nice high guard. Paiva often fights with his hands low and perhaps feels more confident. I don' t like it when people keep their hands low unless they have the skills to pay the bills.

I watched tape on both guys and I think the fight is pretty close overall. Both guys have good jits and are similar in size and reach from what I saw. I think Paiva is probably a bit better in the boxing and scrambles. Paiva probably has an edge in the grappling when still standing.
I am not making a huge bet but happy to play the dog in what I think will be a pretty close back and forth fight.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

DLR doesn't move his head but he keeps his hands up, nice high guard. Paiva often fights with his hands low and perhaps feels more confident. I don' t like it when people keep their hands low unless they have the skills to pay the bills.

I watched tape on both guys and I think the fight is pretty close overall. Both guys have good jits and are similar in size and reach from what I saw. I think Paiva is probably a bit better in the boxing and scrambles. Paiva probably has an edge in the grappling when still standing.
I am not making a huge bet but happy to play the dog in what I think will be a pretty close back and forth fight.

I got Paiva edging the fight but I do agree that the odds are too wide and juice lords have taken another bet too deep into the value.

As far as how the fight will play out, I just think that Paiva has good counters and that’s his game and he knows it. He has terrible defense in getting hit and not moving his head at times but I think he knows he has a good chin and the fact that 125ers just don’t pack enough power to make him pay for his mistakes. And so he’s built his game off hair trigger pull counters where he’s just waiting for you to throw an insignificant jab so he can counter with an over hand right. Dude threw like 4-5 of them in a row anytime Kai tried to pop his jab at him.

De La Rosa is a scrappy fighter himself and can really push a hard pace and loves to move forward. If he gets this to the mat I can see him having success. I just can’t get the thought of their performances in their common opponents in Kai. I’m not happy about the price of -240 though. -185 was more like it.

 

[firstfight]

Watching tape or knowing specific details about a fighter is definitely not my strong suit. My strategy tends to be looking for nuggets in regards to motivation or preparation by reading up on all the articles/press stories I can find.

One nugget I found for this fight card is that Tim Means is a local guy (also means altitude could be less of an issue) and is from a tight knit community that had two of their high school football players tragically pass away last month in car accident. He said he knew the players and the families well and dedicated this fight to them and gave them ringside seats. I know he is a large favorite so it might not be that valuable but that extra motivation should help him.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Jan might do better than you think in terms of gas, he just fought Jacare in a 5 rounder and I believe he does train with Phil Davis for wrestling.

That was a sloth paced fight vs jacare. Now in elevation he has to deal with a high volume fighter with constant takedowns and cage work. Jan is so f'd if he doesn't get an early ko.

 

[SolarSeiko]

That was a sloth paced fight vs jacare. Now in elevation he has to deal with a high volume fighter with constant takedowns and cage work. Jan is so f'd if he doesn't get an early ko.

wasn't it a real grueling match with under/over hooks against the cage? I think value is on Jan here. Corey has better wrestling but they're both going to be affected by elevation. Jan might just survive long enough to pull an upset decision.

 

[Vir_Ars]

wasn't it a real grueling match with under/over hooks against the cage? I think value is on Jan here. Corey has better wrestling but they're both going to be affected by elevation. Jan might just survive long enough to pull an upset decision.

Jan also still have power in the 5R and Jacare got a better chin that Corey.

 

[Oblivian]

wasn't it a real grueling match with under/over hooks against the cage? I think value is on Jan here. Corey has better wrestling but they're both going to be affected by elevation. Jan might just survive long enough to pull an upset decision.

Corey is known for his pace and cardio. Sure, anyone can be affected by altitude, but it's far more likely it causes Jan issues. "Jan surviving long enough" is a strange way of putting it. I'd say his chances to win go down with each round.

 

[Stunna77]

Got around to watching tape on new guy Daniel Rodriguez, he’s actually a pretty good fighter with good hands. He’s not that fast but he knows how to fundamentally box. Has a clean 1-2 and moves his head decently well. He has his eyes wide open in the pocket and isn’t afraid to exchange. Has good power with both hands.

I think he’s going to bring it in his debut. My pick is still Tim Means however. I think Means just outworks him and throws more volume at him. Possible late finish as Means tends to brings a solid pace in later rounds. I’d be interested to see who takes the back step here, I’d think that Means would be leading the dance but if Rod does that then there’s a chance he could look good. To be fair though I didn’t watch his Dana White fight just most of his YouTube stuff.

I’m looking at the over as well.

Either way, Rodriguez looks like he belongs. Probably in the 20-30 tier at 170. But WW is deep though so maybe more towards the 30 ranks.

Watch his DWCS fight quick, get to see him vs a long WW, not LW's in Combate, and Rico is a SP. Likely reaffirms your Means lean. That bullying aggression you saw in regional fights was slowed quickly once he didn't have a size advantage. We all know Means isn't going to be bullied, so its likely D-Rod is forced to fight off his back foot again here.