UFC on ESPN+ 25 Anderson vs Blachowicz II

Highly disagree with DLR more likely to finish than Paiva. Feel like Paiva has shown tons of improvement since his regional fights and has learned how to generate solid power. He swept KKF out of the pocket consistently and busted Bontorin up badly early in their fight. Also the trickier grappler with his length. Given KKF's inability to hurt Paiva while carrying solid pop for the weight class, I don't think Mark can hurt him on the feet and his grappling is overrated, partially due to his lack of strength and athleticism. Paiva decision is the most likely outcome, followed by DLR dec, with a DLR finish being a distant 4th. DLR's path is to get 2/3 judges to give him the nod on volume while avoiding the bigger, more impactful shots and not ending up on bottom against a larger opponent, as I don't think he has much luck getting and certainly not keeping Paiva down, while Paiva has a good shot of countering his weak wrestling and ending up on top.
 
Max betting Shanna Young. All american against a hypejob and the odds are just too crazy.
 
Vir_Ars said:
How see the people De la Rosa winning against Borella? I see borella winning in the clinch, I think that De la Rosa is weak, Borella is way stronger.

Both have terrible striking
De la Rosa is lean, good jiu jitsu, no top control
Borella is heavy on top

this fight might come to strengh and to me Borella can win there, but not confident in neither.
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Montana to use her left jab occasional 1 2. Wait for Borella to blitz forward throwing arm punches and for Montana to stand her ground and throw a 3 4. Next time fake overhand duck under takedown. At a distance cut off cage and get Borella against the cage. Work for takedowns there. Borella does not fight for underooks. Rinse repeat.
 
its pretty ridiculous Montana DLR is such a big favourite vs Borella, both girls are pretty bad, but Borella seems more athletic . This will be a very close fight, I think it is a very good spot actually to go for the dog here at 2.5 odds.
 
Richard Cruz said:
Montana to use her left jab occasional 1 2. Wait for Borella to blitz forward throwing arm punches and for Montana to stand her ground and throw a 3 4. Next time fake overhand duck under takedown. At a distance cut off cage and get Borella against the cage. Work for takedowns there. Borella does not fight for underooks. Rinse repeat.
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yeah could happen, but really both girls suck. this could go any way. reminds me of Kish vs Pudilova, neither girl deserve to be a favourite.
 
Oblivian said:
Corey is known for his pace and cardio. Sure, anyone can be affected by altitude, but it's far more likely it causes Jan issues. "Jan surviving long enough" is a strange way of putting it. I'd say his chances to win go down with each round.
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What's your reasoning behind elevation being a factor MORE for Jan than Corey? Because Corey has shown us his style is heavily wrestling based? At elevation that style is going to be very interesting as Corey has not fought a 5 rounder in quite some time.
 
Sauna said:
Max betting Shanna Young. All american against a hypejob and the odds are just too crazy.
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Max betting shanna young is crazy
 
I'm actually pretty big on Diego ITD @ +540.

There's going to be such a big cardio advantage on Diego's side, despite his lunacy I think he wins this fight easily ITD if it goes past round 1, which I give it a 50% chance of doing, which is enough to justify these odds.
 
Invictis said:
I'm actually pretty big on Diego ITD @ +540.
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giphy.gif


I like you man but, you're crazy.
 
SolarSeiko said:
wasn't it a real grueling match with under/over hooks against the cage? I think value is on Jan here. Corey has better wrestling but they're both going to be affected by elevation. Jan might just survive long enough to pull an upset decision.
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The key difference is Corey will get the takedowns, and it will have a snowball affect as the fight goes deeper more takedowns will land and Jan will be further sapped each time on the bottom struggling and eating shots. Don't be fooled by Jan's fight vs Luke and Souza, Corey is a much better wrestler than them and has numerous different ways to get the takedown. Unless he gets ko'd early in the fight it's going to be inevitable. I love this fight being 5 rounds for this reason, only see Jan winning via ITD and would be extremely surprised if he won a decision being out volumed and taken down lots throughout the fight.
 
I was staying away from Perreira V Sanchez, but I am for sure hitting Perreira rd 1 KO at 3.00. Talk about value.
 
Invictis said:
I'm actually pretty big on Diego ITD @ +540.

There's going to be such a big cardio advantage on Diego's side, despite his lunacy I think he wins this fight easily ITD if it goes past round 1, which I give it a 50% chance of doing, which is enough to justify these odds.
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I'm going to invest a little in round 2 and 3 for diego, but looking to live bet if it goes past the first round mainly.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
The key difference is Corey will get the takedowns, and it will have a snowball affect as the fight goes deeper more takedowns will land and Jan will be further sapped each time on the bottom struggling and eating shots. Don't be fooled by Jan's fight vs Luke and Souza, Corey is a much better wrestler than them and has numerous different ways to get the takedown. Unless he gets ko'd early in the fight it's going to be inevitable. I love this fight being 5 rounds for this reason, only see Jan winning via ITD and would be extremely surprised if he won a decision being out volumed and taken down lots throughout the fight.
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The biggest question here is how much has yan improved after training with phil Davis and Dom cruz. Im not mystified by jans wins over luke and jacare btw. Im also not impressed with corey and corey seems to be very emotional.

Im still seeing value on jan at +170. Jan catches him with some gross meat hooks. I don't see Corey being able to keep the pressure everyone thinks he has for 5 rounds.
 
SolarSeiko said:
The biggest question here is how much has yan improved after training with phil Davis and Dom cruz. Im not mystified by jans wins over luke and jacare btw. Im also not impressed with corey and corey seems to be very emotional.

Im still seeing value on jan at +170. Jan catches him with some gross meat hooks. I don't see Corey being able to keep the pressure everyone thinks he has for 5 rounds.
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Watch the first fight. Cummins also managed to manhandle Jan in the wrestling, as did Gus. Probably the only guy I'd consider an especially good wrestler he's beaten on his current run is Devin Clark, considering both Rockhold and Jacare looked depleted and bombed out.
 
Gugabe said:
Watch the first fight. Cummins also managed to manhandle Jan in the wrestling, as did Gus. Probably the only guy I'd consider an especially good wrestler he's beaten on his current run is Devin Clark, considering both Rockhold and Jacare looked depleted and bombed out.
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Fight was 5 years ago. You literally think Jan hasn't worked on his holes? He literally trained with Santos' team to work on that loss alone. If we're going to mention things 5 years ago, Corey Anderson was put out cold in back to back fights.

Again, don't give a fuck about jan beating 2 MWs but sure, keep bringing them up? Value still on Jan. Why even bet Corey at - 200
 
SolarSeiko said:
Fight was 5 years ago. You literally think Jan hasn't worked on his holes? He literally trained with Santos' team to work on that loss alone. If we're going to mention things 5 years ago, Corey Anderson was put out cold in back to back fights.

Again, don't give a fuck about jan beating 2 MWs but sure, keep bringing them up? Value still on Jan. Why even bet Corey at - 200
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Corey could easily be -400. Corey's been put out cold by massive shots from Manuwa and OSP, both of whom are way bigger hitters than Jan.

It's been 4 and a half years. Jan's recent run has largely been predicated on him avoiding wrestlers. But him getting effortlessly grounded by Gus, and outwrestled easily by Cummins in 2016 & 2017 indicates he'd done nothing to fix the holes as of 3 years ago. So either you're relying on him having completely changed and upgraded his wrestling issues in 3 years, 10 years into his career and at the age of 34-36 when we haven't really seen anything to support that claim. Anderson looked -1000 against him the first time. Jan is KO or bust.
 
Gugabe said:
Corey could easily be -400. Corey's been put out cold by massive shots from Manuwa and OSP, both of whom are way bigger hitters than Jan.

It's been 4 and a half years. Jan's recent run has largely been predicated on him avoiding wrestlers. But him getting effortlessly grounded by Gus, and outwrestled easily by Cummins in 2016 & 2017 indicates he'd done nothing to fix the holes as of 3 years ago. So either you're relying on him having completely changed and upgraded his wrestling issues in 3 years, 10 years into his career and at the age of 34-36 when we haven't really seen anything to support that claim. Anderson looked -1000 against him the first time. Jan is KO or bust.
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Manuwa might hit harder than jan, but Manuwa also doesn't give a shit about blocking or taking shots, ie: had to retire due to too many KO losses himself.

OSP hits harder than Jan? No.

Losing to Gus, meh. Corey is not the wrestler Gus can be considering the length and experience he showed from fighting jones. Using gus as an example isn't really fair as Corey is nowhere near the mma fighter gus was.

Can Corey wrestlefuck his way to a win? Most definitely as that's his bread and butter. Has Jan prepared enough for him? We'll see right? Jan already spent 2 weeks in NM as of feb 10th for acclimatization. (unless i misheard him on YouTube)

As for being 36. Didn't Dan Henderson throw a head kick and standing elbow for the very first time in his career at 45 or something??? Why is it hard to imagine a fighter can fix his holes or learn something late in their career? Isn't this for a title contender spot?

90% of this sub was betting hard on morono last weekend.... Look what happened to the - 300 guy.

Value still on Jan.
 
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SolarSeiko said:
Manuwa might hit harder than jan, but Manuwa also doesn't give a shit about blocking or taking shots, ie: had to retire due to too many KO losses himself.

OSP hits harder than Jan? No.

Losing to Gus, meh. Corey is not the wrestler Gus can be considering the length and experience he showed from fighting jones. Using gus as an example isn't really fair as Corey is nowhere near the mma fighter gus was.

Can Corey wrestlefuck his way to a win? Most definitely as that's his bread and butter. Has Jan prepared enough for him? We'll see right? Jan already spent 2 weeks in NM as of feb 10th for acclimatization. (unless i misheard him on YouTube)

As for being 36. Didn't Dan Henderson throw a head kick and standing elbow for the very first time in his career at 45 or something??? Why is it hard to imagine a fighter can fix his holes or learn something late in their career? Isn't this for a title contender spot?

90% of this sub was betting hard on morono last weekend.... Look what happened to the - 300 guy.

Value still on Jan.
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I'd say when you're looking at somebody who probably needs to get a quick KO in order to not get wrestlefucked to hell, I'd rather have Manuwa who hits hard and is defensively open than Jan who's like... an okay B- sort of a hitter for LHW and tends to gas a lot down the stretch.

Corey's better than Gus.
 
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