UFC on ESPN+ 25 Anderson vs Blachowicz II

[FimbulFightPicks]

Max betting Shanna Young. All american against a hypejob and the odds are just too crazy.

Max betting shanna young is crazy

Sauna knows what he is doing, he did with roxanne too. Very good wmma bettor. I also agree with him macy is overhyped, she quit in tuf series, and she quit mentally in her last fight, bad fight iq, and people think shes this scary fighter. Odds are way too insane to be justifed again.

One thing i learned from a very smart bettor, is he told me even if you think there is value in a fighter, lets say a fighter is +500 and you think they should be +200 but that requires they come out in this and that version or with this gameplan, but if not then the odds of +500 is correct. But if you dont know what version, then its risky bet as there may or may not be value on the dog. In this case we dont know if macy is right mentally, so 1.10 odds are crazy.
The predicability part is a huge factor, and we know Macy is unreliable and shes fragile mentally. Thus the odds are pretty crazy, and this is without looking technically on the fight.
From my experience wmma odds +150 and above has huuuuuge value especially +200 usually especially vs hype trains in lee, macy, barber, ladd, lipski, etc,
Is max bet risky? I think if you with fixed units its justified, and i dont think you will lose even close to 10-20 of them in a row. If you play with 1% always Id probably only put 3-4 max as recovering losses takes a long time, but she probably at worst should be a +300 or +350 dog.
Macy ill livebet after round 1 if she gasses again and shows bad fight iq and frustration.

 

[Martialbeef]

There's a great chance Means win Itd. He was on UFC Unfiltered and referenced a car crash a few months back with family members in said car. He said he has been bottling it up and can't wait to go out there and show up in his home town for those lost. Rodriguez looks okay but I don't think he can trade with Means. Imo Tim puts this guy out with a sweet combo.

 

[Sono07]

There's a great chance Means win Itd. He was on UFC Unfiltered and referenced a car crash a few months back with family members in said car. He said he has been bottling it up and can't wait to go out there and show up in his home town for those lost. Rodriguez looks okay but I don't think he can trade with Means. Imo Tim puts this guy out with a sweet combo.

Yeah after hearing that I was starting to like fight doesn't go the distance.

 

[Oblivian]

What's your reasoning behind elevation being a factor MORE for Jan than Corey? Because Corey has shown us his style is heavily wrestling based? At elevation that style is going to be very interesting as Corey has not fought a 5 rounder in quite some time.

Because it is far more logical that a guy that is known for his pace and tremendous cardio is less likely to gas from altitude than someone who has shown past issues with pace, gassing, and a tough time dealing with wrestlers.

 

[Pfooter24]

Against any capable wrestlers though?

 

[Pfooter24]

He won his last 3 fights via wrestling

I definitely respect your opinion. I just see him as similar to someone like jason knight. With lack of opportunity for childhood, high school , or college wrestling coming from the indian reservati8n in alabama. I could absolutely could be completely wrong

 

[longway]

What's your reasoning behind elevation being a factor MORE for Jan than Corey? Because Corey has shown us his style is heavily wrestling based? At elevation that style is going to be very interesting as Corey has not fought a 5 rounder in quite some time.

People misunderestimating Jan at their peril. Defending tds less tiring than attempting them. If this was a 3 rounder i would line jan a favourite or even money at most.

All you guys betting him are counting on him to gas hard, for me, we wont know until end of r2 who will be more gassed.

This is pre fight jan ml, then lb corey to hedge if necessary.

Rockhold went in with a grapple heavy plan and look what happened to him. Corey's chin wont hold up if Jan tags him clean. And as for he is only a mw argument, he was a former mw champion cutting from 225 for his lhw debut, it was supposed to be a tune up fight for a title run.

Great jab, powerful low kicks, improved clinch game, way better cardio, lot of things have changed for jan since they last met.

This is a tough fight to line over 5 rounds.

 

[SolarSeiko]

I'd say when you're looking at somebody who probably needs to get a quick KO in order to not get wrestlefucked to hell, I'd rather have Manuwa who hits hard and is defensively open than Jan who's like... an okay B- sort of a hitter for LHW and tends to gas a lot down the stretch.

Corey's better than Gus.

Corey better than Gus is a pretty big statement. I don't know about that.

 

[ill800]

Sauna knows what he is doing, he did with roxanne too. Very good wmma bettor. I also agree with him macy is overhyped, she quit in tuf series, and she quit mentally in her last fight, bad fight iq, and people think shes this scary fighter. Odds are way too insane to be justifed again.

One thing i learned from a very smart bettor, is he told me even if you think there is value in a fighter, lets say a fighter is +500 and you think they should be +200 but that requires they come out in this and that version or with this gameplan, but if not then the odds of +500 is correct. But if you dont know what version, then its risky bet as there may or may not be value on the dog. In this case we dont know if macy is right mentally, so 1.10 odds are crazy.
The predicability part is a huge factor, and we know Macy is unreliable and shes fragile mentally. Thus the odds are pretty crazy, and this is without looking technically on the fight.
From my experience wmma odds +150 and above has huuuuuge value especially +200 usually especially vs hype trains in lee, macy, barber, ladd, lipski, etc,
Is max bet risky? I think if you with fixed units its justified, and i dont think you will lose even close to 10-20 of them in a row. If you play with 1% always Id probably only put 3-4 max as recovering losses takes a long time, but she probably at worst should be a +300 or +350 dog.
Macy ill livebet after round 1 if she gasses again and shows bad fight iq and frustration.

Have you seen the tape on shanna young?

 

[SolarSeiko]

Because it is far more logical that a guy that is known for his pace and tremendous cardio is less likely to gas from altitude than someone who has shown past issues with pace, gassing, and a tough time dealing with wrestlers.

I wouldn't exactly call Corey's cardio "tremendous". You're right that Jan has shown a tough time dealing with wrestlers BUT that was also 3 years ago since his last loss to a wrestler.

 

[SolarSeiko]

People misunderestimating Jan at their peril. Defending tds less tiring than attempting them. If this was a 3 rounder i would line jan a favourite or even money at most.

All you guys betting him are counting on him to gas hard, for me, we wont know until end of r2 who will be more gassed.

This is pre fight jan ml, then lb corey to hedge if necessary.

Rockhold went in with a grapple heavy plan and look what happened to him. Corey's chin wont hold up if Jan tags him clean. And as for he is only a mw argument, he was a former mw champion cutting from 225 for his lhw debut, it was supposed to be a tune up fight for a title run.

Great jab, powerful low kicks, improved clinch game, way better cardio, lot of things have changed for jan since they last met.

This is a tough fight to line over 5 rounds.

Yeah I don't get why people are arguing with me saying Jan is basically the SAME fighter from 5 years ago when he's trained with 2 opponent's coaches to help close his holes in his game. That to me shows he's worth the bet. Chip on his shoulder which is odd because he only has 3 losses.

The guy is also calm as a cucumber. Might be a little boring but you hear him interviews and he's very balanced. Corey on the other hand is highly emotional as we saw in his last fight. The guy won and got fined 10,000 for unsportsmanlike conduct because he was mocking Walker after TKOing him. Corey is a mental midget.

 

[Stunna77]

Against any capable wrestlers though?

Is Vargas a capable wrestler?

Weaver going to have a pretty substantial size advantage to aid him should he look to take this to the ground. Vargas style naturally opens him up for tds and once on the mat he has shown very little ability to get up.

 

[null]

UFC Rio Rancho Official Weigh-ins:

 

[Sono07]

The guy won and got fined 10,000 for unsportsmanlike conduct because he was mocking Walker after TKOing him. Corey is a mental midget.

Semantics I guess but I believe the fine was for shoving the ref not talking shit to Walker. I agree he seemed rather worked up after that fight, not sure where his head is at for this one. I have to imagine he has more confidence coming in since he already has a win over Jan.

 

[SolarSeiko]

Semantics I guess but I believe the fine was for shoving the ref not talking shit to Walker. I agree he seemed rather worked up after that fight, not sure where his head is at for this one. I have to imagine he has more confidence coming in since he already has a win over Jan.

The fine was for his antics after winning (not just talking shit but his gestures towards walker) and he got fined the maximum for making contact with the ref. Dude has a chip on his shoulder for sure. It's a bit insane both guys think they have anything for Jones though. Corey isn't going to wrestlefuck Jon because he simply isn't good enough to do so and Jan doesn't specialize in any area to give Jon a threat.

 

[Broe.]

Lol Wood weighs in at 136.8 and then after talking with the guy he is somehow magically 136. This ufc stuff is really such bs. I start to believe less and less in the legitimacy of the sport.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Yeah I don't get why people are arguing with me saying Jan is basically the SAME fighter from 5 years ago when he's trained with 2 opponent's coaches to help close his holes in his game. That to me shows he's worth the bet. Chip on his shoulder which is odd because he only has 3 losses.

The guy is also calm as a cucumber. Might be a little boring but you hear him interviews and he's very balanced. Corey on the other hand is highly emotional as we saw in his last fight. The guy won and got fined 10,000 for unsportsmanlike conduct because he was mocking Walker after TKOing him. Corey is a mental midget.

I think you are wasting your time trying to convince other people about what you think. If you like Jan to win then bet him at what are nice dog odds. There is plenty of info out there showing Jan has had gas tank and defensive wrestling problems in the past. That isn't to say that he didn't shore up these deficiencies.

I will say that it is a tall order for someone that already struggles with cardio to fight at elevation.

I like Jan as a fighter and I think the right price for him in this spot is around +200.

I also think Jan has tremendous resolve and views this as his last chance at a title run.

I don't hate a Jan bet here but I think he will ultimately lose this fight.

 

[Sono07]

The fine was for his antics after winning (not just talking shit but his gestures towards walker) and he got fined the maximum for making contact with the ref. Dude has a chip on his shoulder for sure. It's a bit insane both guys think they have anything for Jones though. Corey isn't going to wrestlefuck Jon because he simply isn't good enough to do so and Jan doesn't specialize in any area to give Jon a threat.

Seemed like the contact with the official was the worst part. I'm guessing he was worked up because the build before his Walker fight alot of people expected another easy r1 KO by Walker, the narrative is different here. Either way 6 of one half a dozen of the other I guess.
Personally I think Anderson wins via a more successful version of Souza's gameplan, control time with better volume. That said I'll probably play Jan's points line at -125

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I see a ton of juice on some of these overs I wanted to play but can no longer.

Borg/Bontorin
Wood/Dodson
Kenny/Merab
Rosa/Paiva

I hope the Lords of Juice Town gets taken on a ride once again and gets popped on some of these overs to ruin their parlay.



That said though, I’ll play some of the overs with much lower odds. The main event, Miller/Holtz, Means/Rod, iffy on Yancy/Lando, Weaver/Vargas iffy. Surprisingly I’m considering the under for Macy/Other chick. Saw some videos of the other chick getting taken out pretty early. I hate u1.5s but might take it.

 

[null]

Ray Borg weighs in last minute at 128 pounds behind the hoop. He has an hour after the face-offs are over to cut the extra weight if he can.