UFC on ESPN+ 28 Lee vs Oliveira

[Deleted member 316645]

Lee last night:

"
@UFC
if I cut this weight I’m fighting somebody, event or not #UFCBrasilia"

https://twitter.com/motownphenom/status/1238094520157270016?s=21"

Honestly, Lee probably got to the point where his body just shut down on him and he couldn't drop the final few pounds. Happens to a lot of fighters when they've been cutting weight for a long time -- he's always been a HUGE lightweight too.

I assume if he was having an awful weight cut, he wouldn't have tweeted out that cocky shit.

 

[2020Tracked]

Oh you talked to him in the sauna?

I said 'Or he', not 'This is 100% factually what happened', because as both you and me know this is all conjecture and no one but Lee himself and his team really know the answer.

Maybe he wanted to be as big and heavy as possible because he plans to wrestle a lot and feels the extra weight will be to his advantage.

 

[2020Tracked]

Lee last night:

"
@UFC
if I cut this weight I’m fighting somebody, event or not #UFCBrasilia"

https://twitter.com/motownphenom/status/1238094520157270016?s=21"

Honestly, Lee probably got to the point where his body just shut down on him and he couldn't drop the final few pounds. Happens to a lot of fighters when they've been cutting weight for a long time -- he's always been a HUGE lightweight too.

I assume if he was having an awful weight cut, he wouldn't have tweeted out that cocky shit.

The tweet below 'If I could this weight...' so he already was having some doubts haha

 

[Deleted member 316645]

The tweet below 'If I could this weight...' so he already was having some doubts haha

Well he tweeted it 20 hours ago, and he said "If I cut this weight...", basically because the event was up in the air because of the coronavirus.

So he didn't want to cut weight and then have the event fall through, since his cut is quite depleting.

 

[Sono07]

Maia will lose probably, wont be suprised if Burns finishes him by strikes

I'm not seeing it man. Unless I missed something Maia hasn't been stopped in the UFC in the past 11 years that's actually pretty impressive.
That includes 5r wars with Woodley, and current champ Usman. This dude is crafty and he probably has a striking and grappling advantage here.
The cardio is questionable but watching Burns output drop and him back down to leg kicks against Kunchenko made me wonder.
Don't forget it was late in r3 when Maia got his last submission, Burns may out work him but Maia has proven to be one of the hardest to put away in the whole UFC.

 

[ill800]

What are you even talking about, "matchup specific"? Its very clear trend that fighters who miss weight have been winning. You make no sense lol

You should probably listen when the guys who have been around a while try to tell you something

 

[ill800]

Damn that is a size advantage for sure

Bea looks like she’s standing a few feet in front of macedo so that’s going to make it even worse

 

[Card]

 

[Sono07]

Bea looks like she’s standing a few feet in front of macedo so that’s going to make it even worse

Maybe but check out Cards post that one girl looks like a skyscraper.

 

[ill800]

Maybe but check out Cards post that one girl looks like a skyscraper.

Oh she’s definitely much bigger, no question.

size doesn’t mean a whole lot, the weight will be more of a factor.

Macedo is much much better at jiu jitsu, so the technique is almost always going to overcome the size

She is however a complete moron in the cage so I really wouldn’t bet her unless she was an underdog

 

[Sono07]

Oh she’s definitely much bigger, no question.

Haven't taped this one but I imagine distance management could give the smaller woman trouble.
Any thoughts on this one?

I'm about set on my picks but starting to think Maia's points handicap could be good. Both KO and sub seem unlikely for Burns here.

 

[jrleclerc88]

You should probably listen when the guys who have been around a while try to tell you something

This is a betting post and are discussing lee missing weight. People can have different opinions. You should stfu legit

 

[t6p]

I'm not seeing it man. Unless I missed something Maia hasn't been stopped in the UFC in the past 11 years that's actually pretty impressive.
That includes 5r wars with Woodley, and current champ Usman. This dude is crafty and he probably has a striking and grappling advantage here.
The cardio is questionable but watching Burns output drop and him back down to leg kicks against Kunchenko made me wonder.
Don't forget it was late in r3 when Maia got his last submission, Burns may out work him but Maia has proven to be one of the hardest to put away in the whole UFC.

I agree with you but keep in mind the Kunchenko fight was very short notice for Burns which probably contributed to him slowing down.

 

[ill800]

This is a betting post and are discussing lee missing weight. People can have different opinions. You should stfu legit

Oh excuse me big baller man. I’ll go back in my corner while you count your money

don’t hurt me

“lee missed weight. That means he’s a lock now”

His cardio has failed him repeatedly. I wouldn’t be confident that him coming in a few pounds heavy is really going to tip the scales in your favor enough to pay chalk for him.

How much does this really factor in to your probability of him winning? He’s already sitting around 60%. Does this bump him up to 75-80%? Because he missed weight? Where’s the value?

if that’s where your finding your edge you probably shouldn’t be betting

 

[ill800]

Haven't taped this one but I imagine distance management could give the smaller woman trouble.
Any thoughts on this one?

I'm about set on my picks but starting to think Maia's points handicap could be good. Both KO and sub seem unlikely for Burns here.

Bea is pretty terrible. Macedo is better everywhere. The skill discrepancy is pretty large

but like I said, Macedos fight iq is awful. She is submission over position and she goes for really low success rate subs and puts herself in bad spots

 

[Sono07]

I agree with you but keep in mind the Kunchenko fight was very short notice for Burns which probably contributed to him slowing down.

Good point didn't mean to discount that. I also have money on Kunchenko tomorrow the guy seems like a talented prospect.
My thoughts here though Maia has proven to have some of the most dangerous bjj in the game and secures position like no other. My biggest worry is his decline, still the man continued to impress me when he switched his lock from one arm to another in r3 to finish Askren and make me feel like a fool for betting Ben Askren.
Time to rewatch that one and feel stupid.
Looks like the under 2.5r's is +180 on Dimes and if Maia's points handicap is decent could be a good hedge.

 

[jrleclerc88]

Oh excuse me big baller man. I’ll go back in my corner while you count your money

don’t hurt me

“lee missed weight. That means he’s a lock now”

His cardio has failed him repeatedly. I wouldn’t be confident that him coming in a few pounds heavy is really going to tip the scales in your favor enough to pay chalk for him.

How much does this really factor in to your probability of him winning? He’s already sitting around 60%. Does this bump him up to 75-80%? Because he missed weight? Where’s the value?

if that’s where your finding your edge you probably shouldn’t be betting

Why so but hurt? U having a bad day buddeh? I bet on lee before he missed weight @-130 and like those odds.

You got some issues stan, i think you need some counseling

 

[rille31]

Rani looked bigger then Barzola

 

[Xuh]

but like I said, Macedos fight iq is awful. She is submission over position and she goes for really low success rate subs and puts herself in bad spots

Submission over position & spamming low % techniques vs Bea Malecki = easy sub win for Macedo

 

[Sauna]

doctors made Lee stop so sounds pretty bad.