UFC on ESPN+ 28 Lee vs Oliveira

[BTC_ANDERSON_BELFORT]

finally a stacked card, cant wait till props open up about to make some accounts and try to fire on these once they get released

 

[Card]

Short Notice:
- Randa Markos (in for Paige VanZant vs. Amanda Ribas) - 2 weeks
- David Dvořák (in for Su Mudaerji vs. Bruno Silva) - 0 days notice

 

[Gugabe]

Short Notice:
- Randa Markos (in for Paige VanZant vs. Amanda Ribas) - 2 weeks
- David Dvořák (in for Su Mudaerji vs. Bruno Silva) - 0 days notice

0 days notice?

 

[Card]

I never include fight week... because of travel, medicals, etc.

 

[edole]

Honestly not sure how anyone can be comfortable with Lee here. Oliveira is a threat to him everywhere.

I think Kevin Lee is very good. And Oliveira is also very good, but I favor Kevin Lee here.

 

[MrShady]

GREAT matchups and odds here.

Ribas
Markos is due for a loss (look at her record lol). Ribas had an impressive showing against Big Dern, and she has been preparing for VanZant. This leads me to believe her wrestling/clinch grappling is on point and Markos' only path to victory - takedown and control/sub - looks slim.

Trinaldo
This may be a more close contested matchup but I will go with Trinaldo based on the fact hes more well rounded, physical stronger, more durable. I expect Makdessi to get cracked and tested here as Trinaldo has sneaky power straights with his reach.

Krylov finish and under 2 rounds
Walkers chin has been exposed. Krylov is dangerous. This fight will end in the first. I'm going with Krylov finish, and hedging with the under 2 rounds because Krylov does not play around and conserve his gas tank. Either he finishes Walker or he gets submitted, under 2 rounds.

Maia
Look at these odds. Burns is no Woodley (who was patient, gameplanned, experienced). This fight is in Brazil. Burns wants to prove a point. Maia is a GO at these odds. If he beat Rocco a year ago, I believe Maia still has what it takes to beat Burns.

Lee/Oliveria - under 2 rounds
While I favor Lee, I recognize he has (or had, depending on Tristar improvements) a tendency to shit the bed. Oliveira is dangerous and this fight will end under 2 rounds imo. Either guy can get finished in seconds...

 

[2020Tracked]

0 days notice?

Yeah, we know it's happening but they haven't told David Dvořák yet, shhh, keep it quiet.

Anyone else on Brandon Moreno at dog odds? His pressure, improving game, youth, not coming off a knock out loss.

Is it a case of Formiga gets the back once and the fight is over?

 

[Oblivian]

Nothing on him yet but I like the price.
Lee is a big 155er and carries a bit more muscle than Olivera.
Couple that with his better offensive wrestling and Id say a grapplefuck might be his PTV. Not feeling great about that in Brazil though.

I'd be shocked if Lee wins by a grapplefuck over 5 rounds in Brazil. I think it's going to be a finish either way in a very high paced fight. Oliveira is very dangerous at attacking the neck on takedowns too. I think Lee may actually try to keep it standing for a while.

 

[Oblivian]

Yeah, we know it's happening but they haven't told David Dvořák yet, shhh, keep it quiet.

Anyone else on Brandon Moreno at dog odds? His pressure, improving game, youth, not coming off a knock out loss.

Is it a case of Formiga gets the back once and the fight is over?

I'm on Moreno. I think Formiga can backpack him, but I don't think he gets the RNC easily. I think Moreno will win the standup and bring the pace too. He'll need a very good gameplan though and be cautious of the takedown/backtake.

 

[t6p]

@t6p while I agree with you in general (about the Maia fight) I just have to tell you that Maia has never look worse than his last couple of fights. The guy has zero stamina. He is over 40. He is dead slow. He doesn't have sturdy chin. We got red flags after red flags. Numbers are tempting, but not enough, if you ask me. The odds on that fight are more or less on the money. I don't feel I have an advantage on the bookie taking either one of them. Clear pass.
Whenever someone says a favourite line is a gift - I cringe a little. I agree Oliveira has lost all of his step ups, but we gotta admit that he made substantial improvements his last few fights, and Kevin Lee is largely the same. It may still be enough for him to beat Do Bronx, in the end of the day he is bigger, better athlete than him, better wrestler... he has some key advantages. But I'm not trying to find out while paying a minus moneyline for Kevin Lee of all people. From day one he had unreasonably steep prices just because hype. Remember that Leo Santos fight? He was what -500 there? We know Oliveira crumbles and all that, but I am not taking Kevin Lee as a favourite over someone that experienced and dangerous. Fuck that.

I agree that the concern here is Maia's age, and I mentioned it in my post. Clearly we're not getting the best version of him.

But, I don't agree that his chin isn't sturdy and I don't see Burns as the type of fighter to exploit it even if that were the case. Burns has already suggested that he wants to test his grappling in this fight, and even if that's just smoke and mirrors I don't see him being able to avoid it. His wrestling is not even close to the level of the guys who have been able to shut down Maia's takedowns.

Also, I think an argument could be made that Burns would have a good chance of being 0-3 if he faced the same opposition that Maia has recently. Burns current line implies that he wins this fight almost 70% of the time. With his most likely path to victory being a close/split decision, that seems crazy to me.

 

[Sono07]

Nobody else interested in mythical fighter Tristar Walker?
Didn't seem like he took Anderson seriously but Firas and GSP might have pulled his head out of his ass

 

[2020Tracked]

I'm on Moreno. I think Formiga can backpack him, but I don't think he gets the RNC easily. I think Moreno will win the standup and bring the pace too. He'll need a very good gameplan though and be cautious of the takedown/backtake.

Formiga has a good reactive shot, but if he gets stuffed a few times or Brandon can get up I think Formiga gets worked over in the stand up.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Moreno is a GOAT hand fighter. Pretty confident Formiga wont wrap his arms up but am very worried he won't escape backpack position.

 

[2020Tracked]

To anyone betting Lee just remeber you are betting someone who lost to Al Iaquinta, twice.

 

[SolarSeiko]

Lots of great opinions here about Maia vs Burns.

I'm biased because I bet on Burns a lot. Maia's current odds are too juicy to not lay down a few bucks (I'm not a high roller like most of you so a few bucks = literally that). To me, Maia is a former MW who has tons of mma experiencing against higher skilled opponents than Burns has faced. Maia is also like what, 6'1 and Burns is a bit smaller. I really don't think Burn's BJJ cancel's out Maia's, I think Maia DOES have the edge if it goes to the ground and can and will submit Burns if he gets him down. Burns has decent cardio but he DOES slow down in the 3rd round. BUT, I follow Burns on social media and he physically appears to be in the best shape ever.

I think Maia wins this and it's definitely worth placing a bet at the current odds. Being the bigger guy with proven cardio and weird, scary ass bjj skills.

 

[Oblivian]

Maia is such a good positional grappler. He did lose to Shields, but Shields is another grappler very strong at holding position. That's one reason that I really liked Maia over Askren. Yes, Askren is an outstanding grappler, but he loves scrambles and doesn't really focus on holding position. Burns is aggressive on the ground and also not near as focused as Maia on holding position. I think that style coupled with his willingness to grapple is going to be trouble for Burns.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I'm interested in hearing other's thoughts on Maia vs Burns and particularly, arguments for Burns. Maia sitting at +185 now seems insane to me.

Burns TDD has looked average at best, as he typically invites grappling, and while his BJJ is excellent it's a notch or two below Maia's imo. All of Burns opponents have avoided going to the ground with him, something which Maia obviously won't do. He also spent significant time against the fence in his last fight against Gunnar, where Maia excels and can work his chain wrestling. Not to mention Maia completely dominated Gunnar, where as Burns was very competitive with him and won with a takedown in the final minute.

The main advantages I see for Burns are striking, speed and cardio, although he has looked better at 170 it's not like he's a cardio machine either. Maia's last 4 losses (Usman, Woodley, Covington, Rory) have all come against opponents with what I would consider elite takedown defense, and superior striking and/or volume to Burns. His only other loss at 170 was way back in 2013 to Shields, which was an extremely close fight against a larger opponent who has fought at 185.

Maia is coming to the end of his career and while I think it's going to be difficult for him to submit Burns, I believe with his size and strength advantages he can win this fight via two or even three rounds of control. Burns has suggested in interviews that he plans on subbing Maia so it sounds like he's going to willingly grapple here. I have to favor Maia in that type of fight.

I would love to here some opposing opinions.

I think Maia could win this. His positional grappling is better than Burns’ for MMA.

Burns will have the obviously striking advantage and could very well outstrike Maia to a victory but I don’t think he keeps it on the feet in the entire time.

He will engage with Maia in the grappling and I think Maia will end up on top in those exchanges. Maia in my opinion, has the best half guard sweep in all of MMA. We’ve actually seen Burns on his back for periods of time before.

With that said, it’ll probably be a really close fight but I’m rooting for old man Maia here and I’m actually gonna pick him to edge out a possible split decision.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Maia is such a good positional grappler. He did lose to Shields, but Shields is another grappler very strong at holding position. That's one reason that I really liked Maia over Askren. Yes, Askren is an outstanding grappler, but he loves scrambles and doesn't really focus on holding position. Burns is aggressive on the ground and also not near as focused as Maia on holding position. I think that style coupled with his willingness to grapple is going to be trouble for Burns.

Askren gassed bad in this fight, I think Burns will win a dec here. His grappling is really good, Maia is old.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I'm on Moreno. I think Formiga can backpack him, but I don't think he gets the RNC easily. I think Moreno will win the standup and bring the pace too. He'll need a very good gameplan though and be cautious of the takedown/backtake.

Like most flyweight fights, I think this fight will look like two squirrels fighting over a nut.

I’m on Moreno as an underdog for pace as well but he definitely leaves openings to get taken down and have his back taken. I’d probably back off if the odds closes at -110 a piece though.

Formiga still has recent wins over Figgy and Sérgio, he isn’t to be underestimated.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I’m on Lee here. Lots of money coming in on Charles and I think the odds will get closer to evens by fight day, so I’m going to wait to play Lee.

I think Lee has turned a corner in his last fight. Really adopted that Tristar jab and throws in combinations now. He understands how to counter a lot better too. He’s had the athleticism, strength, and tools all along and I think Firas has him putting all of it together now.

Still waiting for Charles to crumble if the fight doesn’t go his way and ask the UFC to let him drop down to 145.