UFC on ESPN 3 Jacare vs Hermansson

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[Jordan3399]

Baffled by some of the line movement on lines rebooked for this event.

Teixeira almost gets slept in seconds by a short notice middleweight now rebooked against Cutelaba again he's gone from close to +200 to +130? Cutelaba is a better defensive wrestler who hits harder than Roberson, not on short notice, faced a similar match up in Antigulov where he weathered the storm and got a R1 KO. Teixeira is the Diego Sanchez of LHW now, needs to chain wrestle like mad and grab an early finish on the ground or he gets KO'd and this is a terrible match up for him to do that. I liked him when he was first booked vs Cutelaba at around +200 but after seeing how shot he was vs Roberson I'll happily take Cutelaba at far better odds than before.

Also think Sandhagen-Lineker being much closer is amusing too given Sandhagens last fight really has no bearing on this one. Lineker at -180ish before was quite nice but now we get gifted Lineker at -137 cause Sandhagen crushed a can.

Even Esquibel is mysteriously more of an underdog after Penne injured herself delaying the fight lol

 

[TheKingOwl]

I do not know how serious Lineker's injury was, but I would still bet on him with those odds.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Baffled by some of the line movement on lines rebooked for this event.

Teixeira almost gets slept in seconds by a short notice middleweight now rebooked against Cutelaba again he's gone from close to +200 to +130? Cutelaba is a better defensive wrestler who hits harder than Roberson, not on short notice, faced a similar match up in Antigulov where he weathered the storm and got a R1 KO. Teixeira is the Diego Sanchez of LHW now, needs to chain wrestle like mad and grab an early finish on the ground or he gets KO'd and this is a terrible match up for him to do that. I liked him when he was first booked vs Cutelaba at around +200 but after seeing how shot he was vs Roberson I'll happily take Cutelaba at far better odds than before.

Also think Sandhagen-Lineker being much closer is amusing too given Sandhagens last fight really has no bearing on this one. Lineker at -180ish before was quite nice but now we get gifted Lineker at -137 cause Sandhagen crushed a can.

Even Esquibel is mysteriously more of an underdog after Penne injured herself delaying the fight lol

With you on this entirely. I had Glover against Roberson and remember feeling like it was one of those wagers where I was totally on the wrong side until I suddenly wasn't. Sitting there watching Roberson get within like an elbow or two from finishing Tex (he even went limp briefly, didn't he?). He's probably getting KO'd.

 

[mkess101]

Linker is a must play at these odds for you guys. Sandhagen is tough as nails and crafty on the mat, but he's not the type of guy Lineker struggles with. Corey is ultra aggressive which plays to Lineker's strengths. Lineker has issues when he has to find his opponent. He isn't the best at cutting off the cage. But he has dynamite power, a granite chin, and excellent timing and combinations WHEN he gets an opponent that will stay in his range. Sandhagen will and Lineker likely will land big shots.

 

[Soccer Steve]

+135 is the cost of your ticket aboard the Hermansson train? I'm totally in.

Not sure the philosophy leading up to the Branch fight should be altered all that much. Granted, Jacare will have 0 quit but that should be offset by him being 39 with some very long years on him. His recent wins have been against completely unimpressive competition - Belfort, Boetsch, Brunson, and 2018 Weidman - and his losses have been against good-to-great fighters in a division that's kinda shallow and starved of name power. And after Adesanya styles Gastelum this coming weekend that loss will look even worse.

An all but shot Weidman, with little to no defense or head movement, was made to look fast and dynamic against Jacare outside of maybe two bursts of energy per round (one of which won Jacare the fight of course). The other 4 minutes of each round Jacare looked dangerous and threw heavy but also plodded around slowly and missed a lot of his single shots while getting busted up. While the Jacare-Joker fight stays on the feet Souza is getting picked apart and possibly KO'd. He won't have the speed or power to overwhelm and trap Hermansson like TSantos did. Hermansson's striking defense against the same TSantos showed me enough there that he'll weather the bursts of energy. Jacare keeps getting sparked and his recovery has looked good but that's going to catch up to him. Is ~6 months enough time to recover since being in a mini-war at his age? Maybe I'm reaching a bit here but I dunno...he's old! One of these knockdowns will eventually be a straight up knockout.

I hope Joker looks to keep this standing, he shouldn't mess around with Souza on the ground but he probably will. However, Jacare doesn't really go for many TD's these days. I think he's too cardio-aware to play that kind of grinding style anymore. Plus, I think Hermansson's TDD is good enough anyway. He was initially stuffing and sweeping Leites the backpack and yes the 2nd round may have been a 10-8 for Thales but Jack had busted rib(s) so we have more to the story there. If the smaller Gastelum and Whittaker can escape/stuff/scramble free of Jacare I can see Hermansson doing it too. A fight ending sequence that mirrors the Whittaker stoppage, or Gastelum in round 2, would not surprise me; knocking him down and going into his guard with relentless gnp. All bets are off if Jacare ends up on top though. I really don't like that Jack is vulnerable to arm-chokes and that this is Jacare's main ptv. But Jacare won't get into that position very easily, at least not without draining his tank, and as he tires he gets really sloppy or abandons TDs altogether.

This game has to finally catch up to Jacare at some point, doesn't it? I'll take a ball of energy underdog with a ton of momentum behind him over the legend.



TL;DR
At some point in a 5 rounder Jacare is getting sparked yet again but Joker won't think twice about going into his guard. This leads to a scramble and a somewhat hail mary choke sub for Jacare or, much likelier, a brutal gnp stoppage for the Joker. This line is off: Hermansson +135 is surprising and has to be the play.

 

[mkess101]

+135 is the cost of your ticket aboard the Hermansson train? I'm totally in.

Not sure the philosophy leading up to the Branch fight should be altered all that much. Granted, Jacare will have 0 quit but that should be offset by him being 39 with some very long years on him. His recent wins have been against completely unimpressive competition - Belfort, Boetsch, Brunson, and 2018 Weidman - and his losses have been against good-to-great fighters in a division that's kinda shallow and starved of name power. And after Adesanya styles Gastelum this coming weekend that loss will look even worse.

An all but shot Weidman, with little to no defense or head movement, was made to look fast and dynamic against Jacare outside of maybe two bursts of energy per round (one of which won Jacare the fight of course). The other 4 minutes of each round Jacare looked dangerous and threw heavy but also plodded around slowly and missed a lot of his single shots while getting busted up. While the Jacare-Joker fight stays on the feet Souza is getting picked apart and possibly KO'd. He won't have the speed or power to overwhelm and trap Hermansson like TSantos did. Hermansson's striking defense against the same TSantos showed me enough there that he'll weather the bursts of energy. Jacare keeps getting sparked and his recovery has looked good but that's going to catch up to him. Is ~6 months enough time to recover since being in a mini-war at his age? Maybe I'm reaching a bit here but I dunno...he's old! One of these knockdowns will eventually be a straight up knockout.

I hope Joker looks to keep this standing, he shouldn't mess around with Souza on the ground but he probably will. However, Jacare doesn't really go for many TD's these days. I think he's too cardio-aware to play that kind of grinding style anymore. Plus, I think Hermansson's TDD is good enough anyway. He was initially stuffing and sweeping Leites the backpack and yes the 2nd round may have been a 10-8 for Thales but Jack had busted rib(s) so we have more to the story there. If the smaller Gastelum and Whittaker can escape/stuff/scramble free of Jacare I can see Hermansson doing it too. A fight ending sequence that mirrors the Whittaker stoppage, or Gastelum in round 2, would not surprise me; knocking him down and going into his guard with relentless gnp. All bets are off if Jacare ends up on top though. I really don't like that Jack is vulnerable to arm-chokes and that this is Jacare's main ptv. But Jacare won't get into that position very easily, at least not without draining his tank, and as he tires he gets really sloppy or abandons TDs altogether.

This game has to finally catch up to Jacare at some point, doesn't it? I'll take a ball of energy underdog with a ton of momentum behind him over the legend.



TL;DR
At some point in a 5 rounder Jacare is getting sparked yet again but Joker won't think twice about going into his guard. This leads to a scramble and a somewhat hail mary choke sub for Jacare or, much likelier, a brutal gnp stoppage for the Joker. This line is off: Hermansson +135 is surprising and has to be the play.

Great breakdown.

The ONLY apprehension I would have about playing Joker would be that he seems very much like a guy who can't help but instinctively initiate grappling exchanges. And there are levels to grappling. Jacare even at his age can very easily sweep Jack and put him in big danger. You already acknowledged it so it's not like you are going in blind to it but the big question to me is whether you think Hermannson is disciplined enough to stick to a sprawl n brawl gameplan. If you think he is, I agree the value is all on him.

 

[EndlessCritic]

Liking Gonzalez at +140 here. He gave Gillespie his toughest test to date.

 

[ill800]

Thought the hermansson jacare line was pretty sharp

May have to play the props on this one

Esparza also opened up asa dog for this one. That was fun maxing that and laughing about it

Was also equally baffled by people who bet linekers line down to -130 for me.

Was glad to get cutelaba at his opening price as well.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Thought the hermansson jacare line was pretty sharp

May have to play the props on this one

Esparza also opened up asa dog for this one. That was fun maxing that and laughing about it

Was also equally baffled by people who bet linekers line down to -130 for me.

Was glad to get cutelaba at his opening price as well.

Yeah this was an odd one. Joker's moved to -105 now.

 

[ill800]

Yeah this was an odd one. Joker's moved to -105 now.

It’s still early. One guy max betting at 200 bucks can move that line quick. Not to mention it sat for almost 12 hrs. No one really touched it

Jacare is way too dangerous for a guy who almost instinctively takes the fight to the ground.

 

[Soccer Steve]

It’s still early. One guy max betting at 200 bucks can move that line quick. Not to mention it sat for almost 12 hrs. No one really touched it

Jacare is way too dangerous for a guy who almost instinctively takes the fight to the ground.

OK fair enough. Line movement is still something I'm just getting a knack for so grabbing at guy at +135 and seeing him at -105 has me all hot and bothered.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Thought the hermansson jacare line was pretty sharp

May have to play the props on this one

Esparza also opened up asa dog for this one. That was fun maxing that and laughing about it

Was also equally baffled by people who bet linekers line down to -130 for me.

Was glad to get cutelaba at his opening price as well.

Esparza vs Souza? That fight is off. Souza injury. Virna Jandiroba is replacing her.

 

[Papi]

Lineker and cutelaba are max plays for me 5u each cant remember last time i had that on the same card

 

[NorthernLights]

Great breakdown.

The ONLY apprehension I would have about playing Joker would be that he seems very much like a guy who can't help but instinctively initiate grappling exchanges. And there are levels to grappling. Jacare even at his age can very easily sweep Jack and put him in big danger. You already acknowledged it so it's not like you are going in blind to it but the big question to me is whether you think Hermannson is disciplined enough to stick to a sprawl n brawl gameplan. If you think he is, I agree the value is all on him.

From Hermanssons interview with Ariel Helwani:

I am not afraid to go (to the ground). I will take him down and I will do what I do. He has a really good ground game, but I have good medicine for that, and that’s the best ground-and-pound in the world

I think Jack gets finished.

 

[Doc R]

Hermanson’s best win is against David Branch who is 2-3 in the UFC.

I think Jacare is another level of competition.

Guy who beat Yoel(IMO) and 2018 0 chin Weidman is still very skilled, just obv cannot take a shot any more.

Age is less relevant when you’re Jacare or Yoel and have the same “supplement regimen”. Jacare for the Weidman fight looked like he put on some muscle compared to Gas. I never bet against PEDs.

5/6 jacare losses, Rockhold, Moussasi, Yoel, Whittaker, Gastelum. Other one is his first fight.

I still think he beats anyone that isn’t a serious contender. Hermanson has looked hittable in some of the 3 fights I’ve watched of his.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

I question Jacare's cardio in a 5 round fight, but other than that hard to see him losing this one.

 

[ill800]

-125 jacare.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

the comments on weidman.... lmao. acting like he is in the vitor stage.

he is still a top 6 guy and gives all guys a tough fight even if he loses. his win over kelvin isn’t that long ago neither. jacare‘s win over him was impressive because he came back strong in the later rounds and weidman did look good in that fight.

 

[Oblivian]

These ESPN cards are so much better than the PPVs now.