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UFC on Fox 18 - Post Your Bets!

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Oblivian, Jan 22, 2016.

  1. zomb No soap for you Platinum Member

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    mix of own and just straight up tailing EzFlyer on every single bet my bookie offers. yolo

    Rivera $200 to win $155 / $300 to win $190
    Tarec $250 to win $130
    Barnett $277 to win $211
    Dwyer $225 to win $366
    Natal $225 to win $142 / $225 to win $132
    Ortiz $300 to win $146
    Martin $225 to win $153
    Yakovlev $150 to win $127


    Rothwell/Barnett o2.5 $75 to win $105 / o2.5 $75 to win $75
    Bader/Johnson u1.5 $75 to win $83 / u1.5 $75 to win $75
    Casey/Natal o2.5 $150 to win $91
    Rivera/Alcentara o2.5 $300 to win $154
    Ellenberger/Saf o2.5 $300 to win 1.467
    DGF/OAM o2.5 $300 to win $136

    total risk: $3,727

    dno if I'll add more, haven't' focused much on this card and not much seems to interest me other than the ones I have
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2016
  2. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Ok this should be it for me. I also have many overs in parlays, so just gonna save myself from typing them and throw that out there

    Bader 4 & 5, Bader ML
    Barnett by dec and ML
    Rivera ML
    Barb by dec
    Saffiedine by dec and ML
    CD
    Natal, Casey by KO (much better hedge than that atrocious round 1 price)
    Ortiz by dec, Ortiz in round 3, Ortiz ML
    Sullivan by dec and ML, Yako by dec in a parlay
    Fullen by dec
    Brown by dec
    Levan by dec and ML
    Martin, Martin in round 1

    over 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, and 9.5 fights go to decision

    Barnett vs Rothwell FOTN
     
  3. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    UFC Fox 18 Risk: 2,219.44
    Bader RD 4: 8.50 for 293.25 / Bader RD 5: 6.50 for 289.25 / Bader +5.5: 100 for 192.50 / U1.0: 50 for 97 / AJ
    barnett -185: 185 for 100 / O2.5: 50 for 70 / NOT rothwell ITD: 230 for 100 / Rothwell DEC: 30 for 194.10
    rivera -112: 224.64 for 199.99 / rivera -3.5: 30 for 52.50 / rivera DEC: 30 parlays / alcantara
    barberena +3.5: 100 for 160 / o1.5: 67.50 for 50 / Northcutt
    saffiedine -185: 299.70 for 162 / saff DEC: 30 parlays / ellenberger
    OAM DEC: 30 parlays / ferreira
    natal -153: 230 for 150 / natal DEC: 30 parlays / natal SUB: 10 for 94 / O2.5: 72.60 for 50 / casey
    ortiz RD 3: 25 for 375 / ortiz DEC: 30 parlays / reis
    yakovlev DEC: 30 parlays / sullivan no scorecards: 50 for 52.50
    caceres SUB: 60 for 135 / fullen

    dwyer +200: 100 for 200 / brown
    makashvili DEC: 30 parlays / jackson
    martin SUB: 100 for 290 / olivieri
    props
    DEC O6.5: 60 for 75
    DEC O7.5: 25 for 80
    DEC O8.5: 10 for 83.50
    DEC O9.5: 4 for 104
    DEC O10.5: 1 for 107
    FOTN: northcutt-barberena: 20 for 190
    parlays
    70 RR for 738.48: rivDEC/ saffDEC/ OAMDEC/ natalDEC/ ortizDEC/ yakoDEC/ makDEC
    ---

    not officially done. prolly one more update tomorrow afternoon. but i'm close.
     
  4. TNT10 White Belt

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    My bets for the night:

    Dwyer
    Makashvilli Dec
    Rivera
    Natal
    Natal/Casey Doesn't go the distance
    Barnett
    OAM Dec
    Johnson R1 or 2
    Martin
    Yakovlev
    Ortiz Dec
    Sage ITD

    I'm biggest on Natal and Rivera so hoping they pull it off. Got a couple of parlays too.

    When I did my predictions for this show I think I had like 8 or 9 fights going to decision so I like those over bets on total decisions, can't find them on the sites I use though.
     
  5. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Wow I just realized how many damn bets I have. Joseph B is right, I really hope this isn't a trap card. So many seemingly likely outcomes, I have this sinking feeling I may end up saying "WTF happened?" at the end of the night. Oh well, I have:

    Bader +265 ML
    Bader rd 4 +3450
    Bader rd 5 +4450
    Bader by dec +775
    Rumble rd 1 +195
    Rothwell KO/TKO +225
    Barnett sub +375
    Barnett/Rothwell over 2.5 +145
    Overs in a bunch of fights: Acantara/Rivera, Casey/Natal, Ellenburger/Saff, Mercier/Ferrera, Reis/Ortiz (big)
    Ortiz by dec +115
    Saff by dec -110
    Rivera by dec *140
    Rivera rd 3 +1800
    Jackson ML +265
    Jackson by dec +550
    Natal ML -150 (big)
    Natal by dec +170
    Martin ML -170
    Martin by sub +225
    CDF dec +450
    Decisions over 6.5, 7.5, 8.5


    I think that's most of them, probably missed a few I have in little lottery ticket parlays but that's about it. Honestly, in looking at this card I think I will live bet very little and stick with my original thoughts. There's a couple exceptions where I think live bet might be a good chance to make $. If Ellenburger is having success taking Saff down might have to switch to him. I think possibly CDM could be good livebet opportunity if he's getting the better of it. If Barnett is spending a lot of energy trying to take Rothwell down and not having success maybe LB Ben. And if Rumble looks tired after rd 2 Bader could be a great LB esp if Rumble is maybe ahead on the cards but looks really tired and can get Bader at really nice odds I might add. Okay I know this one isn't for discussion so I'm done LOL.
     
  6. SalvadorAllende Steel Belt

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    Edit with results:

    $ 8 on Dwyer + Caceres + Natal/Casey over 2.5 to win $ 29,15. Lost $ 8
    $ 8 Dwyer to win $ 9,20. Lost $ 8
    $ 12 Yakoklev to win $ 10,20. W
    $ 21 on Natal to win $ 12,60. W
    $ 15 on Josh Barnett to win $ 9,75. Lost $ 15
    $ 12 on AJ/Bader under 1.5 to win $ 12,60. W
    $ 8 on AJ via TKO/KO and Kovalev (boxing) via TKO/KO to win $ 6,15. W

    Total risk: $ 88,00
    Result: Won $ 10,55
    Total fun: A lot.
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2016
  7. null Gold Belt

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    UFC on Fox 18 Risk $2415.00

    Ryan Bader (+250) vs Anthony Johnson $100.00 for $250.00
    Ryan Bader wins by submission (+665) $25.00 for $166.25
    Ryan Bader wins in round 4 (+3375) $5.00 for $168.75
    Ryan Bader wins in round 5 (+4375) $5.00 for $218.75
    Ryan Bader wins by 5 round decision (+775) $50.00 for $387.50
    Anthony Johnson wins in round 1 (+200) $50.00 for $100.00
    Anthony Johnson wins in round 2 (+300) $30.00 for $90.00

    Ben Rothwell (+140) vs Josh Barnett $100.00 for $140.00
    Ben Rothwell wins by 3 round decision (+647) $50.00 for $323.50
    Ben Rothwell wins by 3 round decision (+745) $50.00 for $372.50

    Jimmie Rivera (-140) vs Iuri Alcantara $280.00 for $200.00
    Jimmie Rivera wins in round 3 (+1800) $10.00 for $180.00

    Sage Northcutt/Bryan Barberena Over 1½ (-135) $135.00 for $100.00

    Tarec Saffiedine (-185) vs Jake Ellenberger $370.00 for $200.00
    Tarec Saffiedine wins inside distance (+325) $35.00 for $113.75
    Carlos Diego Ferreira wins by submission (+700) vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier $10.00 for $70.00
    Rafael Natal (-165) vs Kevin Casey $165.00 for $100.00
    Rafael Natal wins inside distance (+245) $40.00 for $98.00
    Rafael Natal wins by TKO/KO (+435) $25.00 for $108.75
    Rafael Natal wins by 3 round decision (+170) $75.00 for $127.50
    Kevin Casey wins in round 1 (+475) $25.00 for $118.75
    Dustin Ortiz wins by submission (+1183) vs Wilson Reis $10.00 for $118.30
    Dustin Ortiz wins in round 3 (+1475) vs Wilson Reis $10.00 for $147.50
    George Sullivan scorecards = no action (+105) vs Alexander Yakovlev $75.00 for $78.75
    Alex Caceres wins by submission (+200) vs Masio Fullen $30.00 for $60.00

    Levan Makashvili wins by 3 round decision (+120) vs Damon Jackson $40.00 for $48.00
    Tony Martin wins in round 1 (+300) vs Felipe Olivieri $10.00 for $30.00
    Tony Martin wins by submission (+250) $20.00 for $50.00
    Matt Dwyer (+160) vs Randy Brown $100.00 for $160.00
    Randy Brown wins by TKO/KO (+220) $50.00 for $110.00

    Fights to go distance over 6½ (+125) $40.00 for $50.00
    Fights to go distance over 7½ (+320) $25.00 for $80.00
    Fights to go distance over 8½ (+835) $15.00 for $125.25
    Fights to go distance over 9½ (+2600)$10.00 for $260.00
    Fights to go distance over 10½ (+10700) $5.00 for $535.00

    Alex Caceres wins Fastest SUB (+825) $10.00 for $82.50
    Tarec Saffiedine wins Fastest KO (+2000) $10.00 for $200.00
    Sage Northcutt/Bryan Barberena FOTN award winner (+950) $10.00 for $95.00

    Parlays:
    George Sullivan/Alexander Yakovlev Over 2½ (-230) + Dustin Ortiz (-220) vs Wilson Reis $100.00 for $108.70
    Round Robin $10.00 ea. x 21 parlays of Makashvili decision + Yakovlev decision + Ortiz decision + Natal decision + Aubin-Mercier decision + Saffiedine decision + Rivera decision $210.00 for $742.08
     
  8. wigglestick pess de gward Platinum Member

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    Well I have to go to work in 2 hours and won't be able to add more bets so this is it.

    Singles
    Natal - 41.25 to win 25
    Barnett - 48.30 to win 35
    Fights to go distance O6.5 - 22 to win 27.08

    Parlays
    Roman Reigns total opponents eliminated
    / Johnson - 6 to win 5.87
    Natal/ Makashvili - 15 to win 17.50
    Johnson/ Not Casey by sub - 40 to win 22.12
    Caceres/ Not Casey by sub - 15 to win 8.54
    Barnett/ Not Casey by sub - 20 to win 18.58
    Johnson/ Natal - 10 to win 11.99
    Oam/ Not Casey by sub/ Johnson fight ITD - 6.50 to win 5.48
    Not casey by sub/ Not Alcantara inside distance/ Not Ellenberger ITD - 25 to win 19.27
    Sage/ Caceres/ not Casey by sub - 5.50 to win 6.45
    Sage/ Not Ellenberger ITD/ Not Casey by sub - 18 to win 16.13

    272.55 to win 219.01
     
  9. zomb No soap for you Platinum Member

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    updated and final. good luck everyone
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2016
  10. Dusty Trunks Green Belt

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    UFC Fight Night 73 +5.2
    UFC190/WSOF22 +.26u
    UFC on Fox 16 -0.80u
    UFC Fight Night 74 -5.25u
    UFC Fight Night 81 -0.25
    Bellator 148 +1.95u

    UFC on FOX 18

    Ryan Bader
    +220 1u to win 2.2u
    Ben Rothwell +120 2u to win 2.4u
    Jimmie Rivera -150 3u to win 2u
    Carlos Diego Ferreira
    +230 1u to win 2.3u
    Rafael Natal
    -165 6.6u to win 4u
    George Sullivan
    +110 3u to win 3.3u
    Matt Dwyer
    +120 2u to win 2.4u
    Felipe Olivieri +140 1.5u to win 2.1u


    GL to all
     
  11. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    UFC Fox 18 Risk: 2,177.44
    Bader RD 4: 8.50 for 293.25 / Bader RD 5: 6.50 for 289.25 / Bader +5.5: 100 for 192.50 / U1.0: 50 for 97 / AJ
    barnett -185: 185 for 100 / O2.5: 50 for 70 / NOT rothwell ITD: 230 for 100 / Rothwell DEC: 30 for 194.10
    rivera -112: 224.64 for 199.99 / rivera -3.5: 30 for 52.50 / rivera DEC: 30 parlays / alcantara
    barberena +3.5: 100 for 160 / o1.5: 67.50 for 50 / Northcutt
    saffiedine -185: 299.70 for 162 / saff DEC: 30 parlays / ellenberger
    OAM DEC: 30 parlays / ferreira
    natal -153: 230 for 150 / natal DEC: 30 parlays / natal SUB: 10 for 94 / O2.5: 72.60 for 50 / casey
    ortiz RD 3: 25 for 375 / ortiz DEC: 30 parlays / reis
    yakovlev -118: 118 for 100 / yakovlev DEC: 30 parlays / sullivan no scorecards: 50 for 52.50
    caceres SUB: 50 for 116 / fullen
    dwyer: 0 for 82.50 / brown
    makashvili DEC: 30 parlays / jackson
    martin SUB: 50 for 150 / olivieri
    props
    DEC O6.5: 60 for 75
    DEC O7.5: 25 for 80
    DEC O8.5: 10 for 83.50
    DEC O9.5: 4 for 104
    DEC O10.5: 1 for 107
    FOTN: northcutt-barberena: 20 for 190
    parlays
    70 RR for 738.48: rivDEC/ saffDEC/ OAMDEC/ natalDEC/ ortizDEC/ yakoDEC/ makDEC
    ---

    finalized (all i changed was i hedged martin sub and caceres sub plays down to 0.5u and freerolled dwyer)

    oh and i bet yakovlev to win a unit
     
  12. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    Alright here we go:

    2.3u Rivera -170
    .8u Yakovlev -105
    2.8u Ortiz -220
    1.7u Sapo -160
    1.5u Ellenberger +235
    2u Sage itd -115
    3.5u Barnett -185/-160

    Embarrassed at how bad I read that Barnett line movement. Thought -185 was actually not that bad of a price. Goes to show how much I know. Had to hit it again when I saw him down at 160 but didn't have the balls to unload more when he got down to the -135/140 area, 3.5u is a big bet for me, especially for hw's. Let's hope this goes well too much of this got me feeling uncomfortable.

    [​IMG]
     
  13. edole Brown Belt

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    500 on ellenberger to win 1125

    +225


    ***official edole free money play of the day
     
  14. Dooze Purple Belt

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    Loss of £13.24 overall not great. Knew sticking mostly to props would be risky, didn't pay off.

    Matt Dwyer by KO @ 4.00 - £2 returns £8
    Dwyer/Brown ends by KO @ 1.66 - £10 returns £16.67


    Martin/Oliveiri ITD @ 1.57 - £6.37 returns £10.01

    Makashvilli UD @ 3.40 - £2 returns £6.80

    Caceres by sub @ 3.20 - £3 returns £9.60
    Caceres r3 @ 13.00 - £1 returns £13
    Caceres r2 @ 7.00 - £2 returns £14

    Yakovlev by Decision @ 2.87 - £4 returns £11.50
    Yakovlev UD @ 3.90 - £2 returns 7.80

    Ortiz r3 @ 17.00 - £1 returns £17
    Ortiz by Split Decision @ 6.00 - £2 returns £12


    Natal @ 1.58 - £10 returns E15.88
    Natal by KO @ 7.50 - £2 (free bet) returns £13


    OAM by UD @ 2.70 - £3.29 returns £8.88
    OAM/CDF goes to decision @ 1.62 - £5 returns £8.08

    Saffiedine by UD @ 2.50 - £5 returns £12.50

    Northcutt by submission @ 5.50 - £3.87 returns £21.29
    Northcutt r2 @ 6.00 - £2 returns £12

    Fight ITD @ 1.57 - £7 returns £11

    Alcantara SU @ 2.45 - £3 returns £7.35
    Fight goes to decision @ 1.62 - £5 returns £8.08

    Rothwell r3 KO @ 26.00 - £2 (free bet) returns £50
    Barnett r3 @ 17.00 - £1 returns £17

    over 1.5 round @ 1.72 - £5 returns £8.64

    Bader by decision @ 9.00 - £2 returns £18
    Bader r3 @ 29.00 - £1 returns £29
    Bader r4 @ 34.00 - £1 returns £34
    Bader r5 @ 41.00 - £1 returns £41


    Parlays:

    Yak/Sullivan + Reis/Ortiz + Berger/Tarec + Iuri/Rivera + CDF/OAM ALL o1.5 rounds + Kovalev/Pascal within 10 rounds = £1 returns £4.39

    Northcutt + Natal + Kovalev ITD @ 2.77 - £4.90 returns £13.61



    That's me for the night, will watch the card tomorrow. Best of luck all.
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2016
  15. hugdeeznuts Purple Belt

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    How does that make you feel?
    Rumble itd
    Barnett
    Rivera by Dec
    Sage itd
    Ortiz by Dec
    OAM/Tares parlay
    Natal
    Caceres itd
     
  16. YoungScholar Brown Belt

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    All I have for tonight is 2.5u on Saffeidine/Ellenberger under 2½ @ +175.
     
  17. hugdeeznuts Purple Belt

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    How does that make you feel?
    Added barnett/Rothwell completes 2 rounds prop
     
  18. ClosetVitorFan Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    I'm on Rumble and Barnett. 200 on a parlay. Pays +150. Not too shabby.
     
  19. Dusty Trunks Green Belt

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    UFC on FOX 18

    Ryan Bader
    +220 1u to win 2.2u L
    Ben Rothwell +120 2u to win 2.4u W
    Jimmie Rivera -150 3u to win 2u W
    (*Live bet* Carlos Diego Ferreira
    +200 .5u to win 1u) W
    Carlos Diego Ferreira +230 1u to win 2.3u W
    Rafael Natal
    -165 6.6u to win 4u W
    George Sullivan
    +110 3u to win 3.3u L
    Matt Dwyer
    +120 2u to win 2.4u L
    Felipe Olivieri +140 1.5u to win 2.1u L

    +4.2 units

    Terrible start, great finish. Solid profit.

    Hope you guys made out well.
     
  20. TNT10 White Belt

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    Up overall which I'd never complain about. If Barnett or Sage ITD had hit I'd of been up bigggg but oh well!
     

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