UFN 101 - Whittaker vs Brunson - Australia

[t6p]

So people are fading Rountree and I understand why but how can you feel confident when you know basically nothing about the guy you're betting on. I'd like to fade Rountree too but I need to see more than a dominant performance against an 0-0 guy. Rountree is dangerous and athletic, is +130 really good enough to fade him? Please convince me to bet Pedro

I'm on Pedro, but I don't feel very confident. Quick thoughts:

- Rountree has shown himself to be a novice on the ground. I believe it was mentioned that Pedro is a BJJ purple belt and he's looked very aggressive once the fight hits the mat in the limited tape we have
- Rountree's striking technique, while powerful, isn't very good. If Pedro can avoid the one big shot I like his chances of getting this fight to the ground, where he should dominate
- Rountree's recent interviews (posted on previous pages) do not inspire confidence in him.

Anyway, I can't recommend a play on Pedro to others, but I'll take the +130 for a smallish bet.

 

[Bands]

Liking Vera, Knight and Ben 10 as dogs. Already hit Vera at +135. Wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of dogs cash on this card.

 

[Officer_Brown]

Yao vs Lausa.

Leaning towards yao. I think yao is more athletic and explosive. Also better footwork and pressure plus cardio to back it up. Lausa seems to be aldo type of fighter. He is too stationary for Yao. I think Yao pushes forward attacks from different angles and clips him. Lausa is probably favorite because of better record.

I haven't seen much discussion about Yao vs Lausa. Am I only one confident on Yao? I think he is much better than his record shows. He had Serrano hurt against the cage before he got taken down and his hand broken. But come on Serrano is an olympic wrestler. Lausa is nowhere near that. And its going to be a stand up fight probaby.
@Joseph Budden heard you are big on Yao, right?

 

[Joseph Budden]

I haven't seen much discussion about Yao vs Lausa. Am I only one confident on Yao? I think he is much better than his record shows. He had Serrano hurt against the cage before he got taken down and his hand broken. But come on Serrano is an olympic wrestler. Lausa is nowhere near that. And its going to be a stand up fight probaby.
@Joseph Budden heard you are big on Yao, right?

Not big on Yao nor am I confident lol. I predict him by decision and am degenerate, so bet that prop but not one i'd advocate

 

[Officer_Brown]

Not big on Yao nor am I confident lol. I predict him by decision and am degenerate, so bet that prop but not one i'd advocate

Looking good. Another dog picked. Going to cash that bitch in

 

[Officer_Brown]

Also like Kelly more and more. Camozzi is stiff as a board. I think Kelly steals round with TD's and judges probably lick hometown D. It was impressive how Kelly won scrambles against Bjj world champion. If Kelly looked like Conor everyone would be picking him. But he doesn't look scary thats why casuals won't bet him

 

[CR0W]

I haven't seen much discussion about Yao vs Lausa. Am I only one confident on Yao? I think he is much better than his record shows. He had Serrano hurt against the cage before he got taken down and his hand broken. But come on Serrano is an olympic wrestler. Lausa is nowhere near that. And its going to be a stand up fight probaby.
@Joseph Budden heard you are big on Yao, right?

Yao's best shot is on the ground. I'm on Lausa for all the reasons I said in my breakdown. Lausa has pro boxing experience and good footwork apart from sometimes leaning into his punches a bit too much whist is dangerous for takedowns. He's gone 5 rounds before, has great cardio and wicked hand speed. He should be able to stay a step ahead of the bullrushing Yao on the feet but if Yao gets top control it's a much more dangerous fight.

 

[usernamee]

Havent seen much of Lausa but what I have seen (one boxing match and one MMA fight) he's just in peoples faces throwing bombs. Haven't really seen him stick and move at all. It looks like his standup matches up with what Yao wants to do which is to stand and bang. Little dude packs some power. Sure his best bet may be on the ground but I think he has a good chance striking.. Again.. Seen way too little on Lausa tho

 

[Brick Top]

Also like Kelly more and more. Camozzi is stiff as a board. I think Kelly steals round with TD's and judges probably lick hometown D. It was impressive how Kelly won scrambles against Bjj world champion. If Kelly looked like Conor everyone would be picking him. But he doesn't look scary thats why casuals won't bet him

Conor doesn't look scary. He's a manlet

 

[CR0W]

Havent seen much of Lausa but what I have seen (one boxing match and one MMA fight) he's just in peoples faces throwing bombs. Haven't really seen him stick and move at all. It looks like his standup matches up with what Yao wants to do which is to stand and bang. Little dude packs some power. Sure his best bet may be on the ground but I think he has a good chance striking.. Again.. Seen way too little on Lausa tho

He is a very good counter puncher though, nice left hook and bolo punch. He countered Dean Bermudez well, landed a flush head kick on him and snatched the guillotine. I'm sure he's watched footage on Yao and formulated a gameplan around his style, I see Yao main threat on the ground though, he could back Lausa up at times and throw flurries but he'll struggle to land clean in my opinion.

 

[usernamee]

Lol I first read "Dennis Bermudez" and my eyeballs almost popped out of my fucking head

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Do you guys believe the line movements depends on how much money is coming in on a fighter or prop?

Because my limits are only 20$ and everything I've played so far keeps dropping -10 pts every time I play it. I've played Ham decision twice and it's dropped twice from +135 to +125 to +115 and that's pretty much crap for value I wouldn't recommend that line. It's been the same for every other prop I've touched.

20$ shouldn't be enough to change a line so I assume they're adjusting it to my plays?

 

[Joseph Budden]

Do you guys believe the line movements depends on how much money is coming in on a fighter or prop?

Because my limits are only 20$ and everything I've played so far keeps dropping -10 pts every time I play it. I've played Ham decision twice and it's dropped twice from +135 to +125 to +115 and that's pretty much crap for value I wouldn't recommend that line. It's been the same for every other prop I've touched.

20$ shouldn't be enough to change a line so I assume they're adjusting it to my plays?

idk but all the props I dropped $100 on got worse too so possibly

 

[Bands]

Do you guys believe the line movements depends on how much money is coming in on a fighter or prop?

Because my limits are only 20$ and everything I've played so far keeps dropping -10 pts every time I play it. I've played Ham decision twice and it's dropped twice from +135 to +125 to +115 and that's pretty much crap for value I wouldn't recommend that line. It's been the same for every other prop I've touched.

20$ shouldn't be enough to change a line so I assume they're adjusting it to my plays?

No way they are adjusting it to your $20 plays. Bookies just want even money on each side and I'm not surprised people are hammering Ham decision. I was considering it myself but current odds are too steep.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

No way they are adjusting it to your $20 plays. Bookies just want even money on each side and I'm not surprised people are hammering Ham decision. I was considering it myself but current odds are too steep.

It sure as hell seems like it. I'm going to chuck 20$ right now on a random line that I haven't even scouted yet. I'll throw 20$ on Ben Nguyen decision even though I don't even believe the prop will hit. I can't imagine anyone running to bet this line right now so let's see.

 

[Bands]

It sure as hell seems like it. I'm going to chuck 20$ right now on a random line that I haven't even scouted yet. I'll throw 20$ on Ben Nguyen decision even though I don't even believe the prop will hit.

It makes sense that people would unload on Ham decision though, decent value at +135. The chances of her winning any other way are very slim. The bookie doesn't care who wins they just want an even pay out, all they care about is their 10%.

 

[Bands]

Vera will most likely close as a favourite and rightfully so.

 

[Officer_Brown]

Vera will most likely close as a favourite and rightfully so.

Also like Vera here. Vera loses if he faces better grappler than himself. Ning is a striker and I see him gettin grapplefucked.

 

[Joseph Budden]

lol @ 5d dropping props for all fights except Noke/Omari and Vera/Ning. Wtf?

 

[Card]

I've been in UFC guys corners, twice already, I'm not nervous, I heard 1 week earlier, but it was still short notice, I came off a fight, so I only had 2 weeks off, I've been training for 17 years, I've dreamed about it my whole life, only had 2 weeks, trained for a southpaw, but that's it, I prefer stand up but I'm well rounded, my fights end up on the ground, I want a first round finish