UFN 106 - Belfort vs Gastelum - Brazil

Status
Not open for further replies.
Its amusing how juiced some faves have gotten this year, but Kelvin is still only -400. He should legit be about -800 here. This is just about as safe as picks get. Hes going to destroy Vitor bad.
 
Oblivian said:
Belfort ITD pays less than Belfort straight. I'll likely be on Belfort for a small play and the ITD line in a multi-parlay.
Click to expand...
LOL didn't even notice that
 
Joseph Budden said:
Its amusing how juiced some faves have gotten this year, but Kelvin is still only -400. He should legit be about -800 here. This is just about as safe as picks get. Hes going to destroy Vitor bad.
Click to expand...
I see people complaining about it but we have an opportunity to take advantage of it by betting dogs. It's a good thing
 
Just to play devil's advocate here, most of Belfort's losses are happening on the ground. Gastelum can do that of course, but he's also exchanging a lot. It's not like he hasn't been tagged and rocked before either. Gastelum is by far the better fighter at this point, but his style gives Belfort opportunities.
 
I don't even want to think about the gastelum fight until he makes weight.
 
Belfort fight is so hard to cap as he is volatile i cant even bet over/under. Gonna be a no play i think or maybe maybe the under.
 
Barboza ml is a fine bet. Barboza + Kelvin Parlay is awesome. Under in the main event is a good bet. Hell, laying the price on Kelvin is fine. These are easy ones :)
 
What is this crazy shit I'm reading about Beneil using high volume? Flicking out the jab ?

He is one of the slowest guys on the roster and one of the slowest guys at LW if not the slowest, going up against one of the fastest guys

Barboza is almost impossible to take down so this will be fought standing, if Barb can't finish he's winning a dominant decision


I have 2u on him at -155, might add some to rd 2, 3 finish from accumulation of damage
 
If you are going to strike with the Barboza the only way to beat him is the constant wildman pressure that Tony used.If he can't get the takedown I don't think Beneil can walk through the fire.
 
I honestly think most of these fights go to decision outside of the ME, feels like its gonna be a LB feast. Especially hitting the Brazilians in close fights.
 
KeystoneKannon said:
If you are going to strike with the Barboza the only way to beat him is the constant wildman pressure that Tony used.If he can't get the takedown I don't think Beneil can walk through the fire.
Click to expand...
And Tony had the chin and durability yo execute it, he was getting SMASHED, he had close to nothing for Edson on the feet, but his overwhelming pressure got to him

Beneil doesnt have the same qualities, chasing Edson like Tony did will get him ktfo
 
rewatching Edson vs Gilbert.

Barb is doing a fantastic job at either moving off the center line and countering when GIl advances, or just landing a hard leg kick as Gil comes forward. He's clearly developing answers to his previous weakness of guys with good pressure boxing.

Gil lands a right over the top as Barb is moving backwards that stumbles him, Barb becomes defensive and recovers pretty quickly. Gil gets a moment of cage control out of it but then gets tripped and GnP'd to end the round. So we know that Barb can still be gotten to this way, but he shows a better response to it now imo.
 
Last edited:
After seeing that punch in slo mo from a different angle, I don't even think it hurt Barb that badly. He was just mid-swing when it landed so the momentum from his own punch pulled him off balance. He recovers his stance immediately and looks cobweb-free.
 
Timurd123 said:
And Tony had the chin and durability yo execute it, he was getting SMASHED, he had close to nothing for Edson on the feet, but his overwhelming pressure got to him

Beneil doesnt have the same qualities, chasing Edson like Tony did will get him ktfo
Click to expand...

Just rewatched Barb/Ferg. A few things:

Tony ate a lot of shots from Barb in rd 1, but landed a lot of his own too. I'm not sure the stats, but I'd imagine pretty close to even for sig strikes. And both guys landed pretty crisp shots too, it wasn't weak pitter patter. Tony hit Barb with an illegal upkick, but Barb didn't look to lose any speed or movement after. He only took a couple minutes of his recover time too even though it looked like a solid kick to the face. If you rewatch, Tony actually had plenty for Edson on the feet. He was cracking him a lot with elbows, punches, some kicks. But he also gave Edson extra to think about with a couple very fast Imanari rolls in rd 1. Beneil doesn't have that in his arsenal that I know of. Nor does he have Tony's reach or speed. I honestly don't know how he gets inside Edson's kicking range.


Edit: Just checked, sig strikes from distance in rd 1 (standing) were 27-27 so yep, dead even LOL. I knew it would be close, doesn't get any closer.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Its amusing how juiced some faves have gotten this year, but Kelvin is still only -400. He should legit be about -800 here. This is just about as safe as picks get. Hes going to destroy Vitor bad.
Click to expand...
Agreed. Is it just me, because I think Kelvn ITD at -260 is a massive steal. By the time this fight happens I wouldnt be surprised if Im on Kelvin, Kelvin ITD, u1.5, Kelvin RD 1, Kelvin RD 2, Kelvin -3.5.

I totally agree with you that -400 is a steal for Kelvin. Vitor's only way to win is by KO in round 1 and kelvin has some of the sharpest boxing in the UFC. Oh and by the way Kelvin has a granite chin that's wrapped in titanium, iron and rune armor gold trim. Oh and vitor in 2017 is legit a dinosaur with no testosterone left in those ol' balls.
 
cagebrain said:
Agreed. Is it just me, because I think Kelvn ITD at -260 is a massive steal. By the time this fight happens I wouldnt be surprised if Im on Kelvin, Kelvin ITD, u1.5, Kelvin RD 1, Kelvin RD 2, Kelvin -3.5.

I totally agree with you that -400 is a steal for Kelvin. Vitor's only way to win is by KO in round 1 and kelvin has some of the sharpest boxing in the UFC. Oh and by the way Kelvin has a granite chin that's wrapped in titanium, iron and rune armor gold trim. Oh and vitor in 2017 is legit a dinosaur with no testosterone left in those ol' balls.
Click to expand...

I like Kelvin itd, but wondering what Kelvin sub will be. He's great at taking the back and I could definitely see him getting Vitor's back and choking him out. Not sure I like Kelvin rd 1 so much though. Kinda think he'll be wary of Vitor early and just try to grind him and sap the 4-5 minutes that Vitor has in his gast tank by holding him against the cage or making Vitor defend from guard the whole round. Then do what Mousasi did once Vitor is just a standing punching bag.
 
Vitor towering (lil bit) over Gastelum. Damn Kelvin should be WW. Its shame he cant control his eating habits.

belfort-gastelum-faceoff-vendas.jpg
 
Dariush hasn't fought a kicker since Cruickshank 2 years ago. He's been able to press forward without risk of getting his legs chopped down. I think that's played a big factor in how his forward moving, in-your-face style has been effective lately. He's been the one landing the left body kick to finish combos and punish guys leaving their ribs open, but he won't have that advantage here.
 
Officer_Brown said:
Vitor towering (lil bit) over Gastelum. Damn Kelvin should be WW. Its shame he cant control his eating habits.

belfort-gastelum-faceoff-vendas.jpg
Click to expand...
Yeah I don't see him doing too well against the Romeros and Rockholds of the division.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,238,249
Messages
55,546,576
Members
174,824
Latest member
Rank Wang

Share this page

Back
Top