UFN 110 - Lewis vs Hunt - New Zealand

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Hirota dec +610 is very enticing. Volkanovski struggled in round 1 vs Kasuya more than I remembered. He still needs work defensively, and he still exposes his hips for tds when he attacks. Kasuya scored an easy td and controlled top position for the final min.

My concern is Hirota getting pressured all fight and Volk getting stronger as the fight goes. But man, +610 Hirota dec just doesn't seem right. Gonna sit on this for a little and hope the price doesn't change.

EDIT holy shit Volk is -470 right now!!! Wtf
 
Bless said:
EZ and others, what do you think about the over in the Pearson/Hooker fight? -170 seems like quite a good price to me, Ross has gone the distance in all of his last 7 bouts
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yea i favor it. he's still a durable dude. he survived a major blitzkrieg by masvidal and made it to the final bell afterwards (which is more impressive now than it was at the time)

hooker is a finisher.. pearson is not really at this point. plus hooker has never been ko'd. i think the only way it doesn't go O2.5 is if hooker catches ross with a big kick or a choke

-170 feels about accurate to me at present on O2.5.. but that's coming from someone who's been on hooker's side since the outset (i bet his opener, then freerolled it, then added back a unit, hehe) -- so i'm in the camp that thinks hooker CAN get a finish. maybe -200 would be more accurate, tho, maybe there's value in -170 on that O2.5. idk. not betting it here for now
 
Joseph Budden said:
Hirota dec +610 is very enticing. Volkanovski struggled in round 1 vs Kasuya more than I remembered. He still needs work defensively, and he still exposes his hips for tds when he attacks. Kasuya scored an easy td and controlled top position for the final min.

My concern is Hirota getting pressured all fight and Volk getting stronger as the fight goes. But man, +610 Hirota dec just doesn't seem right. Gonna sit on this for a little and hope the price doesn't change.
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yep. also hirota is kinda a decision machine. he's got a hell of a chin on him and he's only finished little japanese dudes... (not disrespecting anyone here, but he's not shown that kind of finishing ability outside of japan)

i think i like it, too. just made a small bet.
 
man, i'm surprised steele's price keeps dropping. I'm on steele, i've seen a lot of others on steele... in fact i don't know if i've seen anyone backing jumeau really? yet line keeps tightening? weird.

i almost feel like i've overcommited to the fight as is (for my style) so i'm definitely not adding.. but who's all betting jumeau here..? guy can be taken down pretty easy & is sloppy in general.. big experience discrepancy, too... i know steele is hittable at times but i'm not understanding this movement.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Hirota dec +610 is very enticing. Volkanovski struggled in round 1 vs Kasuya more than I remembered. He still needs work defensively, and he still exposes his hips for tds when he attacks. Kasuya scored an easy td and controlled top position for the final min.

My concern is Hirota getting pressured all fight and Volk getting stronger as the fight goes. But man, +610 Hirota dec just doesn't seem right. Gonna sit on this for a little and hope the price doesn't change.

EDIT holy shit Volk is -470 right now!!! Wtf
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That's fucking insane!

Hirota is still a veteran of the game

That's gotta be Mirsad Becktic territory line wise
 
EzFlyer said:
man, i'm surprised steele's price keeps dropping. I'm on steele, i've seen a lot of others on steele... in fact i don't know if i've seen anyone backing jumeau really? yet line keeps tightening? weird.

i almost feel like i've overcommited to the fight as is (for my style) so i'm definitely not adding.. but who's all betting jumeau here..? guy can be taken down pretty easy & is sloppy in general.. big experience discrepancy, too... i know steele is hittable at times but i'm not understanding this movement.
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I was just as confused as you. I expected Steele to reach -200. I don't see what Jumeau can do here. Sham made a comment about him being able to bang so that being a chance, but I don't see that either. His standup is very awkward and slow. Court McGee is a muchhh better striker, and besides the first punch he hit Steele with he lost the striking in that fight imo.

I don't see anyway Jumeau wins this fight, or really any fight in the UFC. He does not look good in any facet
 
Feel like Jumeau's only shot is to clip Steele early, which does seem to happen pretty often. But I'm still on Steele
 
Antagonist88 said:
Feel like Jumeau's only shot is to clip Steele early, which does seem to happen pretty often. But I'm still on Steele
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Two things regarding this being his only chance though. One, I don't think he has power. It sure as hell doesn't look like it to me. The KO of Grujic was the weirdest thing ever. Two, you know Steele is tough and won't stop fighting. After the Roberts and Court fights, hes a guy you can rely on to not crumble and fight for your money the whole way.

So yeah. ACJ was my big confident play last week, hard to be as confident when not as familiar with Jumeau overall as those guys, but this seems like easy money to me.
 
EzFlyer said:
man, i'm surprised steele's price keeps dropping. I'm on steele, i've seen a lot of others on steele... in fact i don't know if i've seen anyone backing jumeau really? yet line keeps tightening? weird.

i almost feel like i've overcommited to the fight as is (for my style) so i'm definitely not adding.. but who's all betting jumeau here..? guy can be taken down pretty easy & is sloppy in general.. big experience discrepancy, too... i know steele is hittable at times but i'm not understanding this movement.
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wiki capping i guess and fading steeles chin. i expected big movement in this line
 
The more I look at the main event, the more I lean Hunt.

Fuck it, 2u Hunt
 
Thoughts on Brunson/Kelly? Surely dad-bod can't do it again..? Paddy Power have got Brunson ITD @ near evens, can't decide whether to play that straight or put his ML in my RR.
 
Pearson odds dropping, happy I got on @2.62
 
8u steele
6u brunson
5u hunt
2u cutelaba
2u ottow
2u aldrich
1u kim

great card!
 
DarkneT said:
Lol 'Moragas level' he's fought a lot of good people yeah, but he hasn't beat or looked good against them
Please don't bet Moraga he's baaaaaaad
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He could lose - I wouldn't call him a lock - but he might be my most confident ML pick for this card, so I obviously like his current line.
I just don't see much upset potential in this fight.
 
2bet said:
He could lose - I wouldn't call him a lock - but he might be my most confident ML pick for this card, so I obviously like his current line.
I just don't see much upset potential in this fight.
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Hey man do you and you might end up right, hope you do srs

Cutelaba, hulk, ottow and Brunson i would say are much safer but that's just me
Good luck
 
I went with Brunson, Moraga, Steele, and main event to finish with any k.o.

So pretty much fading the Aussies and New Zealander with the more athletic fighters, a risky bet but imo worth the 4.30 price.
Main concern is with Moraga getting clipped but unlikely, I think there's a chance his opponent doesn't even make 125. As well as Brunson not fighting with high I.Q, I believe this is gona be reminiscent of the Sam Alvey ko of Kelly but more brutal.
I'm confident Steele can consistently take it to the ground and be too powerful and UFC experienced to lose rounds. Another scare is that if any of these are close decisions, the judges may give it to the Australians. Wish me luck!
 
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edole said:
I don't understand the Brunson love. His striking is very mediocre and he shoots from a mile out.

I favor Kelly in the clinch, cardio, pressure, and volume.
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Another sig big my friend? I believe the month is up on the current one :)
 
From reddit

"According to his social media Hunt's just been riding jetski's and motorboats. A lot of the comments are just 'don't you have a fight soon' ? He gunna gas fast :("
 
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