Hey guys... late as always but early thoughts.
I pick Chiesa over Lee.
While Kevin is a better athlete and probably more skilled fighter, Chiesa is bigger, more durable and can find openings anytime. Take the Dariush fight for example. Beneil is a solid contender at LW. He was beating the crap out of Michael until he slowed down and only took Chiesa an oppening to sub a legit BJJ black belt.
I dont think Lee has the cardio to go 5 hard rounds with Chiesa.
Hendricks vs Tim.
Come on! Tim is a nice guy but I think Hendricks is several levels above him. Red flag, Jhonny missing weight at MW. Does he even trains? Fuck. Tim is not skilled but a though guy. I think Jhonny is way more skilled and he can even "out-though" Tim at this point. Should be an easy fight for Hendricks.
BJ-Siver.
BJ +185? Im all over it. Damn. Siver is scrappy and BJ looked like he did not belong in the last few fights. But Siver is coming from a long layoff, a suspension and looked bad at the weigh in. Though cut for sure.
BJ looks in shape for him (he will never be shredded, lets face it). Matchmaking has been terrible for him but this is a winnable fight.
BTW... Damn Guida looks TST!
Nice, I'm with you on all of them.
Really like Chiesa here, as you say he's bigger, more durable and I think he can push a pace that Lee can't match. Lee is young and constantly improving but for me there's questions of his chin. He got finished by Santos who dropped him, mounted him then punished him with punches as Lee gave up his back in rushing to stand up. Lee had a great come from behind win vs Trinaldo but he was badly hurt and I think most thought he was done for as he got back to his stool. Even more concerning was how when hurt he turned into a panic wrestler, shooting from miles out.
Don't think that'll play well against Chiesa who although not great defensively has come a decent way in his stand up. I think the way Chiesa throws punches will cause issues for Lee, a lot of straight punches similar to what got him caught against Santos. If memory serves, Chiesa dropped Masvidal with a similar punch.
Lee usually has a 5-7 inch reach advantage (77" reach). He won't have that here as Chiesa is 76" reach and one of the few taller opponents Lee has fought (the other main one being Santos, both 6'1", Santos also being the only fighter Lee faced with a reach over 73" (Santos 75" - every other opponent other than Tuck was 67"-72" and around the same height as Lee).
I don't like the way Lee gives up his back when in trouble, against Chiesa that's a death sentence. He gave it up against Santos (who kept punching instead and got the TKO) and against Trinaldo his lazy shots when hurt ended in him being easily sprawled on and Trinaldo electing not to take it.
Chiesa is one of the best backtakers in MMA and adept at finishing the fight when he gets it, no doubt in my mind had it been Chiesa in those 2 spots, he'd have been sinking in a RNC.
This turned into an essay, but I think Lee may struggle with Chiesa pace, durability, size and long punches. I see him getting hurt and defaulting to his wrestling in the 2nd or 3rd when he starts to tire and Lee giving up his back and being choked out shortly afterwards.