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UFN 112 - Chiesa vs Lee - Oklahoma City

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Mcgregorian, Jun 12, 2017.

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  1. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    I guess you are probably right. But if it were anyone else I'm sure we would be far more critical. I mean, him not making 186 lbs. is very disconcerting. All the bright side his odds are now very playable LOL
     
  2. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Yes that line is getting real tempting now.
     
  3. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Right...Garcia has some of the worst striking inn top level mma that I've seen. This is a case where I believe he just isn't gelling properly with Tri-Star gym and Firas.

    Training at a gym like Combat Club where Henri Hooft would refine his but still let him be there in a little more he wants to be. He will also get great wrestling training.
     
  4. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    notables

    -kimball and stansbury both look the best they have physically
    -gordon 149...
    -miranda looked a little awkward
    -guida does look bulkier than usual
    -siver looked skinny and fuckin awful
    -hendricks 188...
    -chiesa looked drained

    -powell like 3-4" taller
    -moroz like 5+" taller
    -means like 6" taller
    -boetsch 2-3" taller and looked bigger
     
  5. NorthernLights Blue Belt

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    I currently have 1.75u on Boetsch at 3.45 (+245)...I was thinking about switching sides somewhere along the way but then Hendricks goes full Hendricks and now I can't make up my mind. Help me.



    This guy...

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2017
  6. Jamah Green Belt

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    @Antagonist88 You are right, Luca's bet is Means - García ends ITD.
     
  7. CR0W BOXING

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    Not sure if anyone has posted this, but Marcus David posted this on his personal Facebook. Glad I have money on Penn, I think he could shock a lot of people and come out looking good here; albeit it could be down to Siver looking horrific.

     
  8. Yotsuya Brown Belt

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    I forced myself to hedge 15% of my ml bet. Maybe I'll do another 10%, but I will not change sides. Boetsch has feasted on insecure opponents. IMO both Samman and Natal showed weakness right from begining and Tim finished both.
     
  9. quincy k Brown Belt

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    i have no idea why hendricks is a bigger favorite on the ko prop than tim. makes no sense. he had leites in trouble in both the first and second round before he got submitted.

    and who the fuk eats at mcdonalds. that food is horrible
     
  10. quincy k Brown Belt

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    i have a unit on tim at +205 and hedged. its in oklahoma so johhny could get a decision. i also have boetsch ko +600 and 3rd round +2200.
     
  11. Card Silver Belt

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  12. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Garcia dec has spiked all the way up to +1000.
    I'm on means itd but I think I have to stab here.
     
  13. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Herrig nsc.. -140 to +250 to +120

    I hit the first two prices and hedged with the current lol
     
  14. lawmills2006 Purple Belt

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    I hope so because I was drunk as feck yesterday and ended up out putting 3u on Penn.

    +200 though so ride or die
     
  15. trucido Blue Belt

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    Guida to win ITD @ +1200 seems a bit off? I know he hasn't had a finish in years but I could see him maybe catching a sub in a scramble or something.
     
  16. Ham Socks Professional Fighter

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    My god. Confidence increase moroz.....
     
  17. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Tall & skinny with no wrestling background vs a good wrestler often translates into: tall and skinny horizontal

    ...but I'm thinking about taking a shot on her.
     
  18. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Just makes those td's easier with how lanky she is
     
  19. Dooze Purple Belt

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    Nice, I'm with you on all of them.

    Really like Chiesa here, as you say he's bigger, more durable and I think he can push a pace that Lee can't match. Lee is young and constantly improving but for me there's questions of his chin. He got finished by Santos who dropped him, mounted him then punished him with punches as Lee gave up his back in rushing to stand up. Lee had a great come from behind win vs Trinaldo but he was badly hurt and I think most thought he was done for as he got back to his stool. Even more concerning was how when hurt he turned into a panic wrestler, shooting from miles out.

    Don't think that'll play well against Chiesa who although not great defensively has come a decent way in his stand up. I think the way Chiesa throws punches will cause issues for Lee, a lot of straight punches similar to what got him caught against Santos. If memory serves, Chiesa dropped Masvidal with a similar punch.

    Lee usually has a 5-7 inch reach advantage (77" reach). He won't have that here as Chiesa is 76" reach and one of the few taller opponents Lee has fought (the other main one being Santos, both 6'1", Santos also being the only fighter Lee faced with a reach over 73" (Santos 75" - every other opponent other than Tuck was 67"-72" and around the same height as Lee).

    I don't like the way Lee gives up his back when in trouble, against Chiesa that's a death sentence. He gave it up against Santos (who kept punching instead and got the TKO) and against Trinaldo his lazy shots when hurt ended in him being easily sprawled on and Trinaldo electing not to take it.

    Chiesa is one of the best backtakers in MMA and adept at finishing the fight when he gets it, no doubt in my mind had it been Chiesa in those 2 spots, he'd have been sinking in a RNC.

    This turned into an essay, but I think Lee may struggle with Chiesa pace, durability, size and long punches. I see him getting hurt and defaulting to his wrestling in the 2nd or 3rd when he starts to tire and Lee giving up his back and being choked out shortly afterwards.
     
  20. Slohog Green Belt

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    My case for Kish

    Managed to put a couple of units down on Kish yesterday at evens and would've added. Might still ad if it keeps still at -140 or so. I've faded Herring a lot (both in wins and losses) and bet on Kish in more or less all her fights in the UFC so far I think, so take that for what you will.


    We have Felice Herring, a 32 years old veteran with a 12-6 record and a background in kickboxing and fairly amazing slutty cosplay, going up against Justine Kish, a 29 years old decorated thaiboxer with a 6-0 record. They both have a bunch of issues. Herring seems to have a problem with conditioning in most of her fights and broke against PvZ just a couple of years ago. Except for her win over Alexa Grasso she has lost more or less every fight against a decent prospect or established professional she has gone up against. That said she has moments of looking fairly decent, some sneaky subs and decent physicality. She also seems to be a bit of a late bloomer and looks better then ever eight years into her MMA run. Her kickboxing looks fairly decent when she gets into rhythm and she has a couple of nice subs.


    Justine Kish on the other hand is kind of weird. She missed her shot at TUF because she had to get knee surgery (I think, it was a fairly bad knee injury in any case). Before TUF she absolutely manhandled Randa Markos and after a long lay off she came into the UFC and won a very close decision against the underrated Nina Ansaroff and then another very close decision against Ashley Yoder. Worth noting is that while I think Yoder could've gotten the decision with the old rules, she had a lot more control, I think it's fair to say that Kish did a lot more dmg and overall probably will get an edge with the new rules. She's a decorated stand up fighter and undefeated in MMA, but her fight IQ seems not only to be bad, at times it seems non-exsistent and while she has some fairly beautiful aggressive striking she's yet to see a punch she wasn't willing to block with her face while loading up the next step in her aggression.


    As far as I can tell she doesn't game plan. She take the middle of the ring and tries to figure out a way to hit the other chick in the face as early and often as possible. If they fight at range she'll stalk them down and if they try to come in close she gets a thai clich and starts unloading knees. If she gets taken down she muscles herself out of it with no regards for defensive grappling and as far as I can tell she's about as technical as a brick on the ground. The only reason this works, kind of, is that she's stronger, more fit and has better conditioning then anyone she fights. She just doesn't stop, despite being bigger then the opponents for the most part.


    Pressure is a girl's worst friend
    Now, Herring looked great last time out. On the other hand she wasn't pressured much at all. It was mostly technical striking from the outside. Before that she got a quick win over Kailin Curran, who is 1-4 in the UFC and next goes up against Alexandra ”Better ass then Herring” Albu, a 2-0 fighter/bodybuilder.

    In april 2015 Herring lost to PvZ, as I recall she had a decent first round then got ran over by the energizer bunny that is PvZ and that's about it. Earlier on her road to gatekeeper status she lost to Tecia Torres, a high volume striker, and Carla Esparza. As far as I can tell the way to beat Herring seems to be high pace and half decent submission and/or takedown defence. And it's not a black belt or a D1 wrestler we're talking about, it's a decent well rounded strawweight who happens to like to fuck around a bit on the mat.

    I think that, fight IQ be damned, Justine Kish has a better then 50/50 chance to win this fight even if she comes out swinging like a mad women and gets taken down at will the first round. Her style just seems tailor made to beat Herring. If she on the other hand shows the TDD she had against Markos I think she'll just run over Herring with ease. And keep in mid then that she has had really bad weight cuts, long layoffs and octagon jitters to deal with in her earlier fights. Chances are that she'll look better in at least some regard given that she seems to take her weight cut seriously, is something like six months away from her last fights and probably feels a bit safer with her job given her 2-0 record and fairly entertaining fighting style. She's also on record saying that Herring tends to break, looks happy rather then a zombie during the weight cut and seems to have decent support from sponsors and such now.

    My guess is that she smokes Herring fairly easy and gets a well deserved step up next time around.
     
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