UFN 120 - Poirier vs Pettis - Virginia

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Pre fight action smaller tonight than normal. So far I'm locked in on:

Dodson +100-I really like Moraes but Dodson's speed is second only to Mighty Mouse maybe in all of MMA. I think that's the difference. Obviously Dodson's lack of activity at times is a concern, but I'm comfortable betting him at even $.

Lauzon +105 and Lauzon sub +512- Guida has one gameplan, and by trying to implement it he's playing with fire against a sub guy the caliber of Joe. Could Clay outhustle Joe for the win? Yeah, but I'm surprised he's favored here. I like Joe and his multiple ways to win.

I'm also strongly considering a play on Brown/Sanchez goes distance at +165. Diego's chin *might* be shot, but at the higher weight I think he'll be able to withstand punishment a bit better. And Brown isn't one-shot killer, he gets his stoppage through breaking his opponent down. (Granted, Lauzon isn't a big puncher either and he starched Diego). I just have a feeling this one could very well see the cards.
 
mkess101 said:
Lauzon +105 and Lauzon sub +512- Guida has one gameplan, and by trying to implement it he's playing with fire against a sub guy the caliber of Joe. Could Clay outhustle Joe for the win? Yeah, but I'm surprised he's favored here. I like Joe and his multiple ways to win.
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I haven't seen Joe fight well over the course of 3 rounds for years, maybe ever. He has shown some slick and active BJJ work but i'd still be shocked if he was able to get something off the bottom on Guida especially as the fight goes on. I really feel like Lauzon has 1 round to make something work or hes going to get easily handled in a unanimous decision.
 
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Sneaking in a play at on Sage Rd 1 at +400. Call me crazy, but I don't think this fight leaves the first round as Quinones is going to be a willing competitor.
 
BatBoyJG said:
Added

Sage 4u -160 (Yeah I said it)
Moraes decision 0.8u +170
Arlovski +285 2u
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Jesus Christ you got inside info on that Sage bet my man?
Or are you just rich as fuck
 
thesharktank said:
I haven't seen Joe fight well over the course of 3 rounds for years, maybe ever. Hes has shown some slick and active BJJ work but i'd still be shocked if he was able to get something off the bottom on Guida especially as the fight goes on. I really feel like Lauzon has 1 round to make something work or hes going to get easily handled in a unanimous decision.
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???

Lauzon got robbed vs Jim Miller last year, and was getting the better of Miller throughout the fight, even in round 3.

I don't use the term "robbery" very often, but Joe was straight up robbed in that fight. Then of course the favor was returned as Held was robbed against Joe.

Either way, it was just last year that Joe showed he can still fight at a relatively high pace for 15 minutes.

Guida is good at what he does, yes. But he has literally one way to win. And he puts himself in jeopardy at times with his grappling. Not just jeopardy of being subbed, but of getting carved up by elbows inside his opponent's guard. And Joe is obviously plenty good enough to do it from there.
 
edole said:
@Oblivian have any strong leans tonight?
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I'm on more favs than most cards here. Bets are as follows: Pettis, Brown, Albini, Ferreira, Assuncao, Guida (dog), Moraes via dec (dog), Tatiana, Quin/Northcutt ITD, Hill, Strickland, Collier (dog), and Robertson/Stewart ITD. So only 3 dogs which is pretty unusual for me. I have a lot of double parlays.
 
whoa, marq KO is +650. i'm big on mutante (obviously i have good price) but i'm taking some of this
 
mkess101 said:
???

Lauzon got robbed vs Jim Miller last year, and was getting the better of Miller throughout the fight, even in round 3.

I don't use the term "robbery" very often, but Joe was straight up robbed in that fight. Then of course the favor was returned as Held was robbed against Joe.

Either way, it was just last year that Joe showed he can still fight at a relatively high pace for 15 minutes.

Guida is good at what he does, yes. But he has literally one way to win. And he puts himself in jeopardy at times with his grappling. Not just jeopardy of being subbed, but of getting carved up by elbows inside his opponent's guard. And Joe is obviously plenty good enough to do it from there.
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I was at the Lauzon / Miller fight. I think Lauzon won as well, but that was because he was able to take Miller down. He was losing the striking exchanges. He wont be able to take Guida down, or stop Guida's shots. A bit telling that the example you can come up with is a fight that he lost, If Guida looks as good as he did against Ortega or Koch he will run through Lauzon. I don't specifically mean that he gasses (which he sometimes does), its that Joe doesn't have the technical ability on the feet or strength to definitively beat anyone in the UFC by decision.
 
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thesharktank said:
I was at the Lauzon / Miller fight. I think Lauzon won as well, but that was because he was able to take Miller down. He was losing the striking exchanges. He wont be able to take Guida down, or stop Guida's shots. A bit telling that the example you can come up with is a fight that he lost, If Guida looks as good as he did against Ortega or Koch he will run through Lauzon I don't specifically mean that he gasses, just that Joe doesn't have the technical ability or strength to definitively beat anyone in the UFC by decision.
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I rewatched the Miller fight just yesterday, and I disagree about the striking. Miller landed more, but there's absolutely no question that Joe was landing the harder, cleaner punches.

Guida can be outgrappled by slick guys too. He has left his neck in jeopardy on occasion and Joe has incredibly sneaky chokes.

There's almost no chance (outside some total fluke) that Clay finishes Joe either. I can't knock a play on Guida dec at +145 or whatever it is now, but if you are gonna bet Clay that's the way to go imo. No point paying even a little juice. If Clay wins, we all are about 90% sure what it's gonna look like. Personally, I'll take the guy with more ways to win. Joe, while not a huge puncher, surprised everyone when he starched Diego. And he did have Miller rocked a bit (and Miller has a notoriously solid chin). Clay has shown he can get stung, and Joe can transition to a sub if he does it too. Lauzon NSC is just to steep now to play though, so I'm fine playing him straight and his sub line.
 
This is from MMA Oddsbreaker

Written by Gabe Killian

Women’s Strawweight bout: Tatiana Suarez (-280) vs. Viviane Pereira (+255)

Gabe's Thoughts: I think Suarez holds great value at her current offering price of -280, as I think she should be somewhere between a -1400 betting favorite in this women’s 115-pound contest. That is keeping in mind the fact that she is coming off an injury layoff. Were it not for her injury and extended layoff, I would have put her at a solid -2000. She is at a striking disadvantage in this bout, but I don’t expect that to matter one bit. I believe she will find success in taking this fight to the mat, where I see her dominating the Brazilian. I favor a submission finish for Suarez, but if she fails to secure it, I think we will see three 10-8 rounds en route to a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. I see this as being her fight to lose, so I believe Suarez will come out on top with an impressive victory in Virginia; ultimately remaining undefeated, while giving Pereira her first taste of professional mixed martial arts defeat.

Gabe's Call: Suarez by Submission (neck crank, 3:23 round 1)
 
EzFlyer said:
whoa, marq KO is +650. i'm big on mutante (obviously i have good price) but i'm taking some of this
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Unibet had for a few days Marq itd +650....veeery nice line, hit it for 1u
 
Zee's MMA Subscriber said:
This is from MMA Oddsbreaker

Written by Gabe Killian

Women’s Strawweight bout: Tatiana Suarez (-280) vs. Viviane Pereira (+255)

Gabe's Thoughts: I think Suarez holds great value at her current offering price of -280, as I think she should be somewhere between a -1400 betting favorite in this women’s 115-pound contest. That is keeping in mind the fact that she is coming off an injury layoff. Were it not for her injury and extended layoff, I would have put her at a solid -2000.
Click to expand...

WTF.... no UFC fighter should ever be -2000. I know nothing about this fight, but can't take advice from someone who is so clueless about odds.
 
mkess101 said:
???

Lauzon got robbed vs Jim Miller last year, and was getting the better of Miller throughout the fight, even in round 3.

I don't use the term "robbery" very often, but Joe was straight up robbed in that fight. Then of course the favor was returned as Held was robbed against Joe.

Either way, it was just last year that Joe showed he can still fight at a relatively high pace for 15 minutes.

Guida is good at what he does, yes. But he has literally one way to win. And he puts himself in jeopardy at times with his grappling. Not just jeopardy of being subbed, but of getting carved up by elbows inside his opponent's guard. And Joe is obviously plenty good enough to do it from there.
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Guida was actually getting the better of the standing against Koch.

Joe and Jim was like who could slow down more
 
Smashed Dodson nsc

Love that line at -126
 
thesharktank said:
Sneaking in a play at on Sage Rd 1 at +400. Call me crazy, but I don't think this fight leaves the first round as Quinones is going to be a willing competitor.
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Welcome to the money team, master Sage will reward your braveness.
 
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