UFN 143 on ESPN+ 1 Cejudo vs Dillashaw

[turbozed]

Your analysis was very thoughtful and good (as usual), but with one fatal flaw. You implied that Ostovich has any kind of grappling, size, or strength, when she sucks at all three. You nailed all of PVZ's defects, but you have to keep in mind that Ostovich has many of the same problems, if not worse.

I understand the desire to bet against a garbage, habitually overrated (betting-wise) fighter like VanZant, but Ostovich is like her slightly lousier Hawaiin doppelganger with far less toughness and shorter limbs, whether it's success at being an Instagram thot, choice of fighter husband, or abilities.

Ostovich is definitely bottom tier at 125. For how medicore she is, I think her TDs will be enough for PVZ. Ostovich has landed all of her TD attempts in the UFC (and in her TUF run IIRC) and they weren't sloppy head/arm throws but shots at the legs/hips, which PVZ would probably have a harder time defending based on her striking stance.

Ostovich's striking isn't too bad either. She landed pretty heavy looking overhand rights against Fabian, Honchak, and Montana. I trust Ostovich to land better punches in the pcoket as PVZ isn't much of a puncher. She's either kicking at range or looking for a clinch. That style worked well against Chambers and Curran at 115, but I don't expect her to dominate anyone in the clinch at 125 (2nd biggest jump up in weightclass in UFC % wise). I can see PVZ maybe being successful in the clinch, but I don't see her playing keep away for 3 rounds given that she stops moving in striking distance. I don't love the bet but It's a lot less nauseating backing a lower tier girl like Ostovich when she's got a + next to her name.

 

[Dianabol]

Turbozed Absolutely HATES PVZ and You Won't Believe What He Posted!

Turbozed DESTROYS PVZ with LOGIC and REASON!

You've made several lengthy posts being unfairly cruel about PVZ

Clearly a hater but thats ok, UFC's golden girl is gonna prove you wrong.

The only people picking Ostovich are dummies and PVZ haters, it's true

 

[Dianabol]

I really messed up betting Bermudez at -115, I thought that was a good number. +115 is ridiculous, this is the 1st time Bermudez has been an underdog since his UFC debut and it's against this scrub Te Edwards, I can't get over that

People have misread Bermudez's situation and they're writing him off but there's levels to this game

Maybe I should add more to Bermudez, think I'm scared? Who the fook is Te Edwards?

 

[turbozed]

You've made several lengthy posts being unfairly cruel about PVZ

Clearly a hater but thats ok, UFC's golden girl is gonna prove you wrong.

The only people picking Ostovich are dummies and PVZ haters, it's true

Well. You seem like quite the gentleman defending M'Lady from "unfairly cruel" criticism. I hope PVZ finds this thread and recognizes your virtue.

In all seriousness, Paige has a lot more heart than Ostovich who looked like she quit in the 3rd against Montana. So I have a small PVZ Rd3 hedge. Whatever significant advantages people see PVZ having other than that is hard for me to see though. If you can point me to specific moments that demonstrate a potential athleticism advantage up at 125 then I'm happy to be wrong and save some money. Early on in the thread I couldn't find any specific analysis past people saying Ostovich sucks and is levels below PVZ. Even if that were true, it's not too helpful.

 

[Gugabe]

I really messed up betting Bermudez at -115, I thought that was a good number. +115 is ridiculous, this is the 1st time Bermudez has been an underdog since his UFC debut and it's against this scrub Te Edwards, I can't get over that

People have misread Bermudez's situation and they're writing him off but there's levels to this game

Maybe I should add more to Bermudez, think I'm scared? Who the fook is Te Edwards?

I'm on Bermudez too, but I'm concerned by the line movement here. The line went from +105 Edwards to -125 Edwards in about an hour on an otherwise stable/Bermudez-tilting line. So it looks like somebody sharp with a serious bankroll took the swing on Edwards as opposed to it just being line drift from public bias.

Maybe they're an idiot, but that kinda movement suggests privileged information to me. Maybe Bermudez is coming in injured or Edwards looks fantastic in the gym. I'm feeling Bermudez, but I don't see a reason why anybody'd just go dick in the wind big on Edwards so I'll assume they know something that I don't.

 

[TrueAscension]

Hardy Rd 1 +200 looks tasty to me.
I like Dillashaw -5.5, PVZ decision, and Gillespie -3.5

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Hardy Rd 1 +200 looks tasty to me.
I like Dillashaw -5.5, PVZ decision, and Gillespie -3.5

Where you getting +200?
Best I got was does not start round 2 at -150

 

[TrueAscension]

5dimes
EDIT: Ah shit its -200. Woops. Apologies.

 

[Card]

 

[Naught2Sixty]

5dimes
EDIT: Ah shit its -200. Woops. Apologies.

 

[null]

One thing is disturbing me about the new ESPN deal: Five days out from the UFC's first card of 2019 and debut card of the ESPN deal and there is still no Countdown or Road to the Octagon show, weigh-in show, pre-fight show or post-fight show scheduled on any of the ESPN channels, nor listed on ESPN+'s published streaming schedule. Nor has there been a replacement for weekly show UFC Tonight discussed. So what is going to happen, the card just occurs in real time and it is never previewed or analyzed anywhere? Is this part of WME-IMG's cost-cutting measures?

 

[northsofia]

Bermudez as an +110 underdog makes me scratch my head in wonder. There has to be something wrong with him, can anyone share if has any suggestions, please?

 

[edole]

I have a hard time finding confidence in 2019 Dennis Bermudez. Hes a decent boxer with short arms for a FW, and usually relies on wrestling/pace to get the job done.

He is very chinny, and up at LW, I dont see how his game translates.

He may win this fight, but I'm not betting on it.

 

[t6p]

One thing is disturbing me about the new ESPN deal: Five days out from the UFC's first card of 2019 and debut card of the ESPN deal and there is still no Countdown or Road to the Octagon show, weigh-in show, pre-fight show or post-fight show scheduled on any of the ESPN channels, nor listed on ESPN+'s published streaming schedule. Nor has there been a replacement for weekly show UFC Tonight discussed. So what is going to happen, the card just occurs in real time and it is never previewed or analyzed anywhere? Is this part of WME-IMG's cost-cutting measures?

I'm wondering if this will be the UFC Tonight "replacement":

 

[2bet]

So the most that bet365 allows me to bet on a Crowder/Hardy U1.5 + Cerrone/Hernandez ITD parlay is... 0,70€.
Props literally unplayable.
On the other hand, that might be a good thing for me, I have never been good with props anyway

edit: HELL NO. It's not the props. I got limited on everything.
Can't even put 4€ on Cerrone. WTF I just made like 2500€ on bet365 last year, I thought only the big players will get limited like that

 

[Soccer Steve]

I have a hard time finding confidence in 2019 Dennis Bermudez. Hes a decent boxer with short arms for a FW, and usually relies on wrestling/pace to get the job done.

He is very chinny, and up at LW, I dont see how his game translates.

He may win this fight, but I'm not betting on it.

"Very chinny" is 2 losses by KO out of 25 pro fights and, spanning within the last 4 years mind you, a flash KO by KZ and a 3rd round KO by massive hitter Stephens?

 

[edole]

"Very chinny" is 2 losses by KO out of 25 pro fights and, spanning within the last 4 years mind you, a flash KO by KZ and a 3rd round KO by massive hitter Stephens?

Correct me if I'm wrong, didnt ricardo lamas rock him with a jab?

 

[Soccer Steve]

Correct me if I'm wrong, didnt ricardo lamas rock him with a jab?

Not sure, tbh.

 

[Omni1]

Would someone be a homie and tell me where I can find tape of Bautistas last fight or two?

Sandhagan getting td doesn’t bother me so much but i should probably stop blind betting....

Bautista has good wrestling & very good jits. I have a small plays on Bautista straight & Bautista via decision. Sandhagen is good. However, he should not be priced at -485.

 

[Soccer Steve]

I think the Over (FGTD currently sitting at +185) is a strong play for the Glover-Roberson fight. An older, slowed down Tex coupled with a new, smaller opponent will probably introduce a lot of hesitation into both game plans. Ion was going to bring a fight, while Roberson is being a company man on short notice here and might figure he's already bought some rope down the road, win or lose on Saturday.

Lots of intangible 'mights' 'ifs' and 'probablys' in there but isn't a lot of the fight game in their heads? The 'feel out process' might just chew through a couple rounds here for us...