UFN 143 on ESPN+ 1 Cejudo vs Dillashaw

[Austisthunder]

Bautista has good wrestling & very good jits. I have a small plays on Bautista straight & Bautista via decision. Sandhagen is good. However, he should not be priced at -485.

Would be inaccurate to state that between Sandhagen being able to handle Yuri in his last fight + his probable size advantage that Im not really concerned about this...
Although-400 or more I’m not really interested in this fight I think

 

[matthew55]

You've made several lengthy posts being unfairly cruel about PVZ

Clearly a hater but thats ok, UFC's golden girl is gonna prove you wrong.

The only people picking Ostovich are dummies and PVZ haters, it's true

this makes me like my Ostovich bet that much more

 

[Jordan3399]

"Very chinny" is 2 losses by KO out of 25 pro fights and, spanning within the last 4 years mind you, a flash KO by KZ and a 3rd round KO by massive hitter Stephens?

His chin is definitely not great, dropped twice and finished by Stephens, One punch KO'd by rusty as hell KZ, dropped hard by Lamas's jab, Brandao and Grice dropped him too.

Wouldn't say he's a total glass jaw but he's definitely chinny although it might improve up at 155. Equally I really wouldn't be comfortable betting on it holding up vs a knockout artist who can stuff his wrestling a weight class up.

 

[burge13]

Bermudez seems to get hurt or rocked in every fight but at the same time he's rarely KO'd. I don't see his chin improving moving up at this stage of his career though. Just now means he's being hit by bigger guys

Edwards at + was the play IMO. Pass otherwise. People's thoughts on not go the distance -150?

 

[Soccer Steve]

His chin is definitely not great, dropped twice and finished by Stephens, One punch KO'd by rusty as hell KZ, dropped hard by Lamas's jab, Brandao and Grice dropped him too.

Wouldn't say he's a total glass jaw but he's definitely chinny although it might improve up at 155. Equally I really wouldn't be comfortable betting on it holding up vs a knockout artist who can stuff his wrestling a weight class up.

Te Edwards is a "knockout artist"? Te can only be called a can crusher at this point in his career. Not even. His best win is against an embarrassing opponent in Austin Tweedy. The guy is utterly unproven and when he finally faced real competition it kicked his head off. Bermudez at + money in this spot is a beautiful gift. I suppose inaccuracies like 'very chinny' and 'knockout artist' is what got it there.

 

[longway]

Bautista has good wrestling & very good jits. I have a small plays on Bautista straight & Bautista via decision. Sandhagen is good. However, he should not be priced at -485.

Not much tape on Bautista, but from the little there is, he looks to have the game and athletism to counter Sandhagen, also he sounded quite level headed in an interview I listened to. At +360 I will definitely play him a little, but I am more interested in the O1.5 when it appears.

 

[Jordan3399]

Te Edwards is a "knockout artist"? Te can only be called a can crusher at this point in his career. Not even. His best win is against an embarrassing opponent in Austin Tweedy. The guy is utterly unproven and when he finally faced real competition it kicked his head off. Bermudez at + money in this spot is a beautiful gift. I suppose inaccuracies like 'very chinny' and 'knockout artist' is what got it there.

I'm not pretending Te Edwards is something great at all but arguing Bermudez has a good chin is just false he's had trouble with plenty of remotely hard hitting opponents and needed takedowns in order to have success with most of his opponents. If nothing else Edwards has solid wrestling and hits hard which is the two biggest problems Bermudez has had in his career.

Prior to his last the Elkins fight every single one of Bermudez UFC losses all 4 of Bermudez UFC losses involved him getting rocked badly. In what way does he have a good chin at all?

Equally, every single one of Te Edwards wins is a KO in under 3 minutes so regardless of some of his competition level the description of KO artist isn't exactly an unfair one at all. I never claimed he was a great striker but his record speaks for itself and while I don't think Edwards should be favoured there are clear and justifiable reasons the line is so close.

 

[Soccer Steve]

I'm not pretending Te Edwards is something great at all but arguing Bermudez has a good chin is just false he's had trouble with plenty of remotely hard hitting opponents and needed takedowns in order to have success with most of his opponents. If nothing else Edwards has solid wrestling and hits hard which is the two biggest problems Bermudez has had in his career.

Prior to his last the Elkins fight every single one of Bermudez UFC losses all 4 of Bermudez UFC losses involved him getting rocked badly. In what way does he have a good chin at all?

Equally, every single one of Te Edwards wins is a KO in under 3 minutes so regardless of some of his competition level the description of KO artist isn't exactly an unfair one at all. I never claimed he was a great striker but his record speaks for itself and while I don't think Edwards should be favoured there are clear and justifiable reasons the line is so close.

Maybe I hinted strongly, haha, but I never said he had a 'good chin'. I wanted to counter the argument that he was 'very chinny'. Anyways, semantics. You make good points. We can leave it now if you want.

Is Edwards is a solid wrestler? Where have we seen it? His first win of any semblance of note was in 30 seconds and in his second fight, as I love to point out, his head was kicked off.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

Gonna preface this by saying I acknowledge it is foolish to rely on anything a fighter says when doing media when capping a fight, but I just listened to TJ on Luke Thomas’ show and he said some pretty interesting shit. Specifically, he said his cut is over, he’s closer to 125 today than he was to 135 his last several camps at 5 days out and that he’s setting PRs in the weight room and is stronger today that he was during his last camp. Hard to believe but pretty intriguing claims. Already on him for 3 units and am strongly considering maxing out on him. Cejudo’s rate of improvement is worrisome but I honestly think TJ is probably the best fighter in the world right now and he seems to have such an intelligent approach to preparation.

 

[Jordan3399]

Maybe I hinted strongly, haha, but I never said he had a 'good chin'. I wanted to counter the argument that he was 'very chinny'. Anyways, semantics. You make good points. We can leave it now if you want.

Is Edwards is a solid wrestler? Where have we seen it? His first win of any semblance of note was in 30 seconds and in his second fight, as I love to point out, his head was kicked off.

He was a NCAA Division 1 and hit a decent double leg after getting rocked by Madge but we've seen little in his actual fights as he's just relied on his KO power. Also he trains out the MMA Lab with guys like Benson Henderson to train with too so I'm confident he's getting his grappling and TDD tested regularly in the gym.

I'm tempted by Bermudez Dec or maybe ML but I just don't see how he has anything close to what Don Madge. They're totally different stylistically, how do you see it going? I'm just not convinced Bermudez has the power, BJJ or wrestling to dominate any individual area. Seems like the vast majority of the time it's either an early Edwards KO or Bermudez avoids the power, volume striking to a decision with some short wrestling exchanges in between.

 

[edole]

Gonna preface this by saying I acknowledge it is foolish to rely on anything a fighter says when doing media when capping a fight, but I just listened to TJ on Luke Thomas’ show and he said some pretty interesting shit. Specifically, he said his cut is over, he’s closer to 125 today than he was to 135 his last several camps at 5 days out and that he’s setting PRs in the weight room and is stronger today that he was during his last camp. Hard to believe but pretty intriguing claims. Already on him for 3 units and am strongly considering maxing out on him. Cejudo’s rate of improvement is worrisome but I honestly think TJ is probably the best fighter in the world right now and he seems to have such an intelligent approach to preparation.

If I see TJ on the scales looking anything other than half dead, I will probably be right there with you. I've just got to see it first. He can be close to the 125 lb mark this early in the week but that doesnt mean his body won't start to panic as he sheds those final pounds.

If Cejudo looks like a stud on the scales, and TJ looks absolutely dead, I might take a stab on Cejudo as well.

 

[ill800]

So my concern with Roberson is his diminishing output after rd 1. He still holds his power and explosiveness but really seems to drop off after the first rd

Glover is washed but he still has solid cardio

He’s so slow now, not only his punches but his reaction time in general. He takes way too many punches and Roberson is quick and powerful.

Glover needs to be comboed to really be finished. Roberson will likely catch him but will he be able to finish him without gassing?

Also think sandhagens line is way too high

 

[Soccer Steve]

He was a NCAA Division 1 and hit a decent double leg after getting rocked by Madge but we've seen little in his actual fights as he's just relied on his KO power. Also he trains out the MMA Lab with guys like Benson Henderson to train with too so I'm confident he's getting his grappling and TDD tested regularly in the gym.

I'm tempted by Bermudez Dec or maybe ML but I just don't see how he has anything close to what Don Madge. They're totally different stylistically, how do you see it going? I'm just not convinced Bermudez has the power, BJJ or wrestling to dominate any individual area. Seems like the vast majority of the time it's either an early Edwards KO or Bermudez avoids the power, volume striking to a decision with some short wrestling exchanges in between.

A few people have hit on it (@Dianabol comes to mind), and the line flip settled it for me, but your words "volume striking to a decision with some short wrestling exchanges in between" are where I see it going. But Bermudez throws (almost recklessly) and carries some heat and we've seen Te go down, not to say he'll be dismantled a la Madge, but a Berm KO isn't totally out of the question. But I won't be playing that; Berm ML and Decision for me.

 

[longway]

He was a NCAA Division 1 and hit a decent double leg after getting rocked by Madge but we've seen little in his actual fights as he's just relied on his KO power. Also he trains out the MMA Lab with guys like Benson Henderson to train with too so I'm confident he's getting his grappling and TDD tested regularly in the gym.

I'm tempted by Bermudez Dec or maybe ML but I just don't see how he has anything close to what Don Madge. They're totally different stylistically, how do you see it going? I'm just not convinced Bermudez has the power, BJJ or wrestling to dominate any individual area. Seems like the vast majority of the time it's either an early Edwards KO or Bermudez avoids the power, volume striking to a decision with some short wrestling exchanges in between.

I took 1U Bermudez ML at +110 and partial hedge with Edwards R1 - I think this combination covers the outcome about 80% of the time. If Bermudez didn't have stinking luck, and this wasn't such a strange change in the line, I would bet more even though he is moving up to 155.

 

[longway]

So my concern with Roberson is his diminishing output after rd 1. He still holds his power and explosiveness but really seems to drop off after the first rd

Glover is washed but he still has solid cardio

He’s so slow now, not only his punches but his reaction time in general. He takes way too many punches and Roberson is quick and powerful.

Glover needs to be comboed to really be finished. Roberson will likely catch him but will he be able to finish him without gassing?

Also think sandhagens line is way too high

He does have very solid cardio. Spot on.

I don't know why people are fading him so much against Roberson, or any of these mid-tier guys who are susceptible to Glover's ground game. Unless there is some info where he has already decided he will retire and is determined to win or go out on his shield, I think Gover is very solid in this spot. Yeah, he can get KO'd, but it's far more likely he will get Roberson to the mat and win.

 

[PuertoRican]

I'm not sure if there is a better free trial deal out there for ESPN+ and the UFC's first event together, but the ESPN+ default page shows a 7-day free trial, which I'll use this weekend: http://www.espn.com/watch/espnplus/?om-navmethod=topnav

I was hoping for a 30-day free trial like when Fight Pass first came out. I think the UFC now offers a 7-day free trial or something.

 

[null]

I'm not sure if there is a better free trial deal out there for ESPN+ and the UFC's first event together, but the ESPN+ default page shows a 7-day free trial, which I'll use this weekend: http://www.espn.com/watch/espnplus/?om-navmethod=topnav

I was hoping for a 30-day free trial like when Fight Pass first came out. I think the UFC now offers a 7-day free trial or something.

I'll be signing up for a year on Friday. It's cheap enough and it's not like I am going to stop watching or betting the UFC any time soon.

 

[ill800]

He does have very solid cardio. Spot on.

I don't know why people are fading him so much against Roberson, or any of these mid-tier guys who are susceptible to Glover's ground game. Unless there is some info where he has already decided he will retire and is determined to win or go out on his shield, I think Gover is very solid in this spot. Yeah, he can get KO'd, but it's far more likely he will get Roberson to the mat and win.

Him being almost 40 and likely having brain damage makes me hesitant to bet him in this spot

I’d honestly rather bet the younger dog.

He’s 100% going to land a few bombs on teixeira

How long will teixeiras chin hold up? If he didn’t take misha down we’d likely be talking about him dropping three in a row and 4 out of the last 5. Misha was landing at will on him

 

[Oblivian]

Is Edwards is a solid wrestler? Where have we seen it? His first win of any semblance of note was in 30 seconds and in his second fight, as I love to point out, his head was kicked off.

I think way too many people are ignoring the wrestling aspect of this fight since Edwards has finished guys so quickly. The other big factor could be the size differential. People always just say "Bermudez wrestled division 1", but they don't really look into it. He wrestled for Bloomberg mainly at 149 lbs. He ended up quitting his 4th season, and he was eligible to wrestle for a 5th and did not. So he left more than a year and half of college wrestling on the table. Edwards was with Arizona State and Old Dominion. He settled at 174 lbs. I'd definitely give Edwards the edge in collegiate wrestling background, and he did it at a higher weight.

I don't think we'll see Bermudez being able to outwrestle Edwards here. Keep in mind Edwards is at MMA Lab. He's not at some "yes man" team. There is no way he's not wrestling and grappling day in and day out. When I look back at Bermudez's career, he's had 5 wins in his last 11 fights. Three of those wins were against guys ok with fighting on their back or where he had an absolutely clear wrestling advantage. The other 2 were Kawijiri and Guida, and this was when Bermudez looked absolutely at the top of his game. That same Bermudez would have had an easy time with someone like Rick Glenn or Andre Fili, and I think that Bermudez would have looked a lot better than he did vs. Elkins.

I just see a guy who looks like he's clearly declined, he's moving up a weight class, and he doesn't have a wrestling advantage which he's depended on before. He's going up against someone with a better wrestling background, in his natural weight class (wrestled higher at that), who hits hard, and is training at a good camp. Edwards could end up being a flop, but I feel all of the signs are there that this should be a favorable matchup for him.

 

[Koniradi98]