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UFN 143 on ESPN+ 1 Cejudo vs Dillashaw

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Dec 28, 2018.

  1. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    Surprised so many are heavy on Dillishaw.

    Cejudo has possibly the best wrestling in all of MMA, some of the best cardio, is tremendously big and strong at his weight, has at least decent striking, and very good, borderline excellent striking defense.

    Oh, and he is improving fight by fight, too.

    I don't feel like there is anyone around right now, even someone as great as Dillishaw, that I would happily play at -210 against Cejudo. Especially at a weight he has never competed at before. Cody fought like an idiot. Cejudo, by contrast, fights very intelligently.

    Since Cejudo at +175 isn't quite appealing enough either, I am giving the main event a pass in terms of betting.
     
  2. Cockadoodle Blue Belt

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    Yea Crowder seriously looks like he is fighting under water
     
  3. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Sorry, if a fighter that you praise that highly is sitting +175 and you call it unappealing and pass then your breakdown of that fighter must be inaccurate. No?

    DJ smashed him once and was utterly robbed (makes more sense after the “trade”) in the rematch. And TJ was robbed against a near-goat Cruz (oh what could’ve been if not for that glass body of his); Dom being basically a bigger, better version of Cejudo.

    TJ, the bigger fighter, will nullify most of any wrestling advantage, if there is any, and probably finish him late.

    We’re in the era of champ-champs.
     
  4. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Cejudo barely got a decision over an injured DJ where Cejudo could only lay on top of him after scraping a takedown in 3 rounds. TJ can do pretty much everything DJ did but with far better TDD and is a much more dangerous striker. The style match up is easily in favour of TJ, its whether the weight cut will go well or not and as it is I think most are very confident TJ is going to make weight and look absolutely fine.

    I'd disagree on Cejudo having the best wrestling in MMA or that he's even close to it, he has the best credentials but trying to integrate that into MMA takes years of development. It wouldn't surprise me at all if TJ outwrestles him it's not like Cejudo has looked that dominant at all, 1 for 7 on Benavidez or 1 for 15 trying to get down guys like Chico Camus is pretty awful. Guys like Tim Elliot or Dustin Ortiz have been more effective than him against mutual opponents wrestling, and overall in MMA guys like Jon Jones, Romero, Cormier, Aldo have far better wrestling.
     
  5. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    No. I think Dillishaw's true odds should be around -180 and thus Cejudo should be +180. Thus, neither side is appealing.

    Is this how you analyze match-ups?! By bringing up barely relevant fights (Cejudo is clearly not the same guy who fought DJ the first time), stating woefully biased opinions (claiming DJ was "utterly robbed" in the rematch), meaningless Narrative descriptors (someone being a "near-goat"), and downright false comparisons? (Cejudo and Cruz are very, very different fighters)

    That's one way to look at it. Another is that Cejudo beat arguably the greatest fighter in MMA history pound-for-pound at or near his prime by fighting the perfect strategy and nullifying everything that made him so dominant.

    This is why I don't like these type of generic Narrative descriptions.

    Considering that DJ himself has outstanding wrestling and some of the best TDD in the sport's history, I don't know how TJ's can be "far better".

    What a beautiful example of how worthless pure takedown percentage stats, without any context, are.

    Incidentally, if ever there was an example of an Olympic wrestler whose skills don't translate nearly as well to MMA wrestling, it's Romero. (Well, now that Henderson is retired)
     
  6. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    I knew the Cruz line would trigger you but you are the easiest mark to trigger itt.
    Do I look at recent fights to analyze upcoming ones? Yes.
    Barely relevant? Come on man.
    Woefully biased? It was a lame robbery, plain as day.
    Trigger though it may have been, Cruz and Cejudo are way more similar than you’re caring to consider.
    And DJ has shown wrestling and TDD to be a main, if fleeting, weakness of his. You’re making stuff up to fit with your unapologetic stubbornness and relentless arguements against anyone who disagrees. We’ve seen this over and over. It’s spent now.
     
  7. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Now for all your criticism of things I have said I never came close to anything that inaccurate. The one singular thing that is not great let alone anywhere near the 'best in the sports history' is DJ's TDD. He has been absolutely dominated wrestling more than once and getting takendown is the reason for all of his losses, the draw with McCall and aside from when he was dropped by Dodson the result of pretty much every round he lost as champ.

    You criticise statistics but numbers don't lie. There's a reason Aldo has 92% TDD, Jones has 95%, TJ 86%, Dodson 82%, Whittaker 84%, Woodley 97%, Barao 92% etc. It's cause they all have great TDD proven across a lot of fights with multiple great wrestlers. DJ has 65%.

    If you want some context with TJ the only guy to take him down was Cruz who hit brief takedowns shooting in as TJ came forward striking and every time TJ popped straight back up. In comparison Cruz took a guy like DJ and bounced him around the octagon like a child for 25 minutes. For a bit more context the only guy Cruz hasn't been able to hit takedowns on was Cody Garbrandt who has never been takendown.
     
  8. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    So you openly admit you spew nonsense for the purpose of trolling? Got it. Will ignore your ravings from here on out.
     
  9. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    “Ravings.”

    Have at ‘er dude. All the best of luck to you.
     
  10. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    "All his losses" is 3 fights, although Johnson didn't lose to Pickett because of wrestling. But yes, an in-his prime, larger wrestler in Cruz beat him when Demetrius' wrestling was still improving and Cejudo, an Olympic gold medalist, also exploited his wrestling. His TDD percentage is lower because so few guys try to take DJ down to begin with.

    Anywho, I'm not fond of playing -210 against great fighters without any clear, exploitable flaw. I also doubt the people so confident about these lower weight fights appreciate how much better the fighters and more complex the fights there are.
     
  11. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    So now you are brushing off 3 fights that he all lost as insignificant? He completely lost the Pickett fight due to wrestling what are you talking about? Do you check what you say? Here let me help you. http://www.fightmetric.com/fight-details/80d1f9945f7d0d5b
    Pickett got almost outstruck 2 to 1 but hit 10 takedowns to 2. I wonder what won him the fight?
    As for this notion DJ somehow developed this amazing TDD, he was takendown 3 times by Borg and 4 by Elliot relatively recently. In the Elliot fight especially he lost the first round dominantly and was caught deep in a choke after getting outgrappled and didn't stuff a single takedown all fight.

    And wtf do you mean so few people try to take DJ down? He has had to defend one or more takedowns in every single fight he's since he joined the WEC with the sole exception being when he KO'd Benavidez in 2 minutes.

    And yet you are so happy to criticise mine and others analysis, writing off the opinion of the majority of this forum because you 'doubt the people so confident about these lower weight fights appreciate how much better the fighters and more complex the fights there are'.
     
  12. Itsnotthatseriousmydude White Belt

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    I’ve worn contacts in all my fights. Sometimes you lose one sometimes you don’t. Incentive to keep your head protected. That being said some athletic commissions allow them and some don’t.
     
  13. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    No, I'm simply pointing out that it's cherry-picking. Demetrius Johnson has 30 professional fights, including against many good and even excellent wrestlers whose takedowns he neutralized or out-grappled himself. One has to consider everything, wins as well as losses, as well as the actual technique displayed in determining his level of takedown defense.

    That being said, I'm probably remembering the Pickett fight wrong. I watched it live way back in the day but it was long before I was taking notes. So yeah, that was another early fight where he was out-wrestled by a larger opponent.

    Which highlights another central problem with using the stat out of context, especially in modern MMA. Instances where a fighter immediately wall-walks, hip escapes, or scrambles back up are still counted as "takedowns".

    Yeah dude, that's totally the most important thing when it comes to betting! Going with the majority's opinion! I feel so terrible that I didn't go with the majority opinion about how Cyborg was going to destroy Nunes and was better than her in every aspect of striking, and foolishly argued about it!

    And you wonder why you're not more successful with your betting...
     
  14. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Betting against everyone elses opinion when you actually have a solid argument is one thing it's another when you are doing it with no good argument and because you arrogantly still think you're are better than them. People can call it a beta mentality or whatever but if there are several guys all very knowledgable on something and all unanimously agreed on it I'm going to at least take it seriously even if I disagree and decide to bet against it.

    You are criticising my betting like I'm remotely bad or not profitable. I'm not here to brag about profits and really don't care to third party track or whatever but I know for a fact I'm doing decent. You're last sentence is nonsense. Just because I have the ability to recognise I'm not perfect doesn't mean I'm not confident I have quantifiable data showing my success that gives me that confidence. I just believe firmly there is always room to improve and even if one day I'm magically the most profitable MMA bettor on the planet I'll maintain that attitude. It's that mentaility that kept guys like GSP, DJ, Jon Jones etc. at the top.
     
  15. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    I think Cejudo winning via wrestling is not happening. If Cejudo wins I can see him knocking out depleted by the weight cut T.J. Something similar to Rose knocking out Joanna when her weight cut was horrible and she was stunned by every clean punch that landed on her face. Or second way - if T.J. slows down a lot in the later rounds (and even then I see Cejudo winning by using his striking not with takedowns), again weakened by the cut.

    Wrestling approach - I don't see it guys. It has been said here, T.J. is bigger and better wrestler than everybody that Cejudo has faced so far and Cejudo's wrestling is not quite well adapted yet for the octagon. Cejudo's big head can absorb a lot of damage and carry him through the fight and maybe if T.J.'s cut was not that painless as he talks around in the interviews, this could be the shot for Cejudo to beat two champs back to back. And there is no recent examples of champs going down in weight and win. Everybody challenge the champ in the weight above and beat them. Seem to be the way this things work
    [​IMG]
     
  16. MidgardSerpent Black Belt

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    Hmm.... you sound like someone with good eyes. :)

    Most contacts are soft and the chance of them damaging your eyes through impact are nihil, if anything they might possibly offer slight, very slight protection from your eyes getting scratched during a fight.
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2019
  17. lefontes Purple Belt

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    Heavy on TJ.

    Better footwork, bigger, much better striker, equal speed maybe. Dont lose since 2011. Tj by ko or decision on bet365 is great value.
     
  18. t6p Brown Belt

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    TJ first one on the scale. Weighed in at 124.6.
     
  19. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Tbh every time the champion that moved in weight was the winner.
     
  20. usernamee Silver Belt

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    Looked pretty good actually, no?

     

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