UFN 154 on ESPN+ 12 Moicano vs Korean Zombie

[mkess101]

Just gonna chime in here:

You guys didn't cap fights before lines got released????? I always assumed everyone did. Not specifically capping to an exact number or anything but giving a range like @LeskoJohnson did (btw very nice breakdowns).

Doing it is such a great first step. You have nothing to influence or sway you. Once lines are released, (and to me this was always the most vital aspect) you might be swayed and think "Holy sh*t, why is this so far off from how I capped it?" Which is a GOOD thing. It forces you to look at how and why you capped the fight the way you did. And sometimes you'd do more study and say "Nope, my read was spot on and the books are way off". And sometimes you'd say "Okay...I'm starting to see why line is set the way it is..."

Hell, I even did it with props. I'd assign what I thought probabilities were for dec, itd, sub, KO, FGD, FDNGD, etc. Couldn't do it for every fight but did it for as many as I could. Then when props got released I'd compare and go from there. I think over the years I made a lot of $ on props because I had those #'s ready so when they got released I already knew what I was looking for.

In short...if you have time you NEED to do this. It's not the totality of capping fights, but it is a key PART of it.

 

[LeskoJohnson]

Probably the best post I’ve seen on these forums. I’ll be honest Ive never capped fights before markets so that was super helpful. You obviously got some tasty odds doing that.

Thanks for the tip.

Thank you man, appreciate it. I found that I can be much more precise with my betting and mainly a lot less biased. I was already having pretty good results, but sometimes the odds can cloud your vision and if you take that out of your process, you get way more efficient and your ev increases a whole lot.
I’m already halfway the 13 July card, and even tho I am a busy person (mostly the same as a person who is in a serious relationship, works full time or studies a difficult major at college.), if your organize your free time you can produce a whole bunch and try to get ahead of the curve. I used to be a poker player and that is a game of small edges, sports betting is kind of the same but the adaptions are bigger and less detail oriented, but every edge you can get is absolutely fundamental.

 

[LeskoJohnson]

I agree, very helpful post Lesko! If you are sharp enough to cap successfully it would definetely seem better to cap fights before markets. Once odds are out it is damn near impossible to assess a fight neutrally, without using the odds as an anchor point.

Exactly. If you’re a human and you saw the odds on the market you are 100% capping fights differently than you would in a vacuum, you are much more likely to find value where it doesn’t exist, or lose value relying on how the market opened/moved.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Once lines are released, (and to me this was always the most vital aspect) you might be swayed and think "Holy sh*t, why is this so far off from how I capped it?" Which is a GOOD thing. It forces you to look at how and why you capped the fight the way you did.

I was a click away from getting Deron Winn at -110 and seeing that number I hesitated with deer-in-the-headlights syndrome. Got him on the way down at least but he's at -200ish right now. Confidence in your read is a big thing too.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I was a click away from getting Deron Winn at -110 and seeing that number I hesitated with deer-in-the-headlights syndrome. Got him on the way down at least but he's at -200ish right now. Confidence in your read is a big thing too.

This Bruno Silva is a tough match up for Darren . He is much bigger and more experienced.
Not mentioning USADA, pass for me.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Does anybody else like the Zambie at dog odds? I've been watching a bit of him again and am reminded that he is definitely a good fighter, and I think he's got a shot here

 

[TrueAscension]

I never let the odds dictate how I bet I just go with the fighter I like and how I think he/she wins and bet accordingly. I rarely have time to pre-tape but I’m going to get on that July 7 card today because I feel like there’s some reeeeeeally fun fights there and may need to parlay props at this but point because money lines are out of control

This is not to say I don’t take stabs on huge dogs from time to time but I don’t allow the odds to dictate who I favor if that makes any sense

 

[ApplesVild]

I've always thought the best path would be tape first without ever looking at the odds. Pick who you favour to win for each fight based in the take without the influence of the odds. Then when you've got some guys that you really like see what their odds are and go from there. If you like a dog on tape then lucky you.

I know everyone on here talks about "value" but fuck that.

 

[Soccer Steve]

I've always thought the best path would be tape first without ever looking at the odds. Pick who you favour to win for each fight based in the take without the influence of the odds. Then when you've got some guys that you really like see what their odds are and go from there. If you like a dog on tape then lucky you.

I know everyone on here talks about "value" but fuck that.

Everyone talks about it because it's the proven method to long term success. That, and hitting big parlays once in a while sure doesn't hurt.

 

[ApplesVild]

Everyone talks about it because it's the proven method to long term success. That, and hitting big parlays once in a while sure doesn't hurt.

I know I know.

Its with things like Cowboy/Ferguson. So many people thought Ferguson would win but bet Cowboy because he's the value side. If you think Ferguson will win then bet him, it just makes sense to me.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Anyone have a 5dimes referral code? Bovada is great with payouts, but there'a no live betting, and the lines are always so skewed(ie last night Machida was -390 and Chael was +265).

 

[Ryan Kelly]

I know I know.

Its with things like Cowboy/Ferguson. So many people thought Ferguson would win but bet Cowboy because he's the value side. If you think Ferguson will win then bet him, it just makes sense to me.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

The mythical attachment to 50%. What a wild thing.

 

[matthew55]

jesus here we go again

 

[TrueAscension]

I know I know.

Its with things like Cowboy/Ferguson. So many people thought Ferguson would win but bet Cowboy because he's the value side. If you think Ferguson will win then bet him, it just makes sense to me.

Or some people actually though cerrone might win and he looked good in round 1.

I had Cerrone until I rewatched the Pettit fight and realized how much of a psycho Tony is. He could never lose to Cerrone

 

[Omni1]

The mythical attachment to 50%. What a wild thing.

Think of it like this. If you thought Tony had a 71% chance to win then the odds would be -245. As a rule of thumb I only bet a favorite if the odds offer me a +5% advantage. So if I thought Tony had a 71% chance to win I would only bet Tony if his odds were 66% or -194 or better. The same is true with + odds as well.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

Deron Winn is very green but this matchup looks good for him.

Silva comes from the same camp as Serginho and other known brazilians. They are known for throwing with big power and mediocre technique. Bruno is a wild man, too and his takedown defence looks bad. If Winn doesn’t play around, he should win. The wrestling gap should be gigantic. If he wants to test out his striking, he might get kneed in the face.

Wouldn’t bet him at the current line though.

 

[TrueAscension]

Anyone have reads on the Moicano fight? I never hedge but he’s the last leg of a 24k parlay for me and I’m not feeling so wonderful about it.

 

[MacPherson911]

how's Lineker's cardio? I don't remember him gassing even in Rd5 against Dodson. Short notice here concerns me but in a 3 rounder agains a boxer I'm betting that his cardio holds up and he controls this.

 

[Jordan3399]

Anyone have reads on the Moicano fight? I never hedge but he’s the last leg of a 24k parlay for me and I’m not feeling so wonderful about it.

Zombies a good match up for Moicano. He needs to pressure like Ortega did to Moicano did but thats just not his style nd even then Moicano does well. If anything I think hitting Zombie live will be a better as odds will widen early. Not sure how much you'll be able to get down live to hedge though.