I have spent quite a bit of time thinking about the main event. I stan Weili pretty hard, have bet her every UFC fight thus far and faded Andrade vs Rose...but there are a lot of points in Andrade favor
She is the better wrestler, athlete, and power and she has INSANE ouptut. She is built for 5 round fights because she has such an insane pace and everybody except Joanna ends up getting worn down eventually.
Even though Rose was completely dominating the first round, round 2 strikes were equalish and even if Andrade slam didn't get a KO, she still probably wins round 2 with a bit of top control instead. Rose was already starting to slow a bit, so it might have been en route to 48-46 Andrade or 47-47 draw. And it's not like Rose cardio is megabad, she just won round 5 in the Joanna rematch.
So can Zhang really hang long enough to either win 3 rounds or get a finish? The latter is possible, but not super likely. Zhang's finishing almost all happens on the ground. Her striking is good enough to possibly score a knockdown against Andrade massively lol striking D and then finish on the ground. But it's a bit of a longshot.
Zhang's most likely path to victory is going to be having her cardio hold long enough to keep hitting Andrade more than she gets hit back and avoiding takedowns for 3/5 rounds enough to get homecooking score. Basically can she be the better fighter for 12.5+ minutes of the fight?
Rose was for 8 minutes, Torres was for 4.5, Gadelha for 2 minutes, Joanna for the whole 25. Joanna was pretty much engineered in a lab to give Andrade fits, and that was > 2 years ago and Andrade has likely improved since.
Zhang's cardio seems pretty good, but that still doesn't mean she can hang with Andrade for long since she doesn't have Rose's reach, speed or striking to be as dominant when fresh. And her shaky chin could have her slow due to Andrade cumulative damage. I kinda think this will be like a 5 round rendition of Andrade vs Torres w/ Andrade winning either 49-46 or via late stoppage most of the time.
Still being careful bc it's not INSANE to think Zhang could be the better fighter long enough to win a home decision or find a way to finish, but both are relatively slim. Andrade is clearly more likely to both finish and win a 5 round decision.
Even though Andrade win vs Rose was some level of fluky, she still may have won or draw without the slam and I am pretty shocked to see her trade at the same price vs a weaker opponent. Even if it's in China, I still think that's a clearly easier fight than Rose in a neutral location.
Still not sure how much I want to bet, but I feel EV should be around Andrade -200 and she has a bit of value at current odds.
