UFN 161 on ESPN+ 19 Jędrzejczyk vs Waterson

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[TrueAscension]

Sneaky good card here.

Without odds I like Vettori, Price to put out Vick's lights, Gracie with a quick sub, and hoping Michelle can grapple her way to a win with those odds

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

I see no ptv for waterson. Her standup is much inferior and her head and arm throw will never work on Joanna to get fight to the ground.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

I see no ptv for waterson. Her standup is much inferior and her head and arm throw will never work on Joanna to get fight to the ground.

Why not? It works on everyone else.

 

[Austisthunder]

Why not? It works on everyone else.

Do women just flat out lack balance/ strength to not resist a H&A throw?

Ive thot about why women specifically cannot defend it repeatedly

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Do women just flat out lack balance/ strength to not resist a H&A throw?

Ive thot about why women specifically cannot defend it repeatedly

That and a lack of athleticism and base wrestling knowledge. That schoolyard headlock is a pretty common among novice wrestlers. In my high school wrestling class every new guy eventually grabbed the head like that.

 

[Broe.]

I put 800 on joanna x 1.5, im not sure if i should hedge a little or not.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

lines out early, always exciting news

I think this card is way better for betting than the coming PPV

 

[Cockadoodle]

Are we going to get the Moreira Anders or the Roundtree & Theodoru Anders now that he is back at middleweight. Hard to know. GM3 can take a shot but he does get hit. Would have to think Anders hips are too good and Meerschat will gas himself trying to get it to ground

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Dern only -170? Dont even care she just had a baby theres still a massive JJ edge in her favor.

 

[theTKDguy]

looks like a good fun card, betting wise too. Vettori, price, frevola, anders, spann, maybe griffin look good.

ME is very tricky. Normally Joanna should handle kh but remember she's an ig thot now. Boob surgery = bad things to come. Wouldn't play joanna honestly. If odds get stupid i'm more likely to put a couple bucks on motivated kh. Seems like a gus vs smith type of fight.

Cub is only losing nowadays but he hasn't looked that bad in his last fights. His striking is def a problem for gracie but still, if/once he gets ahold of the old man it all goes downhill. Cub's neck is a guillotine magnet.

Elliot could be a good dog play vs figueiredo. He's got size and could grapple his way to a dec but i need to watch more

Vera vs ewell is a great fight

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Chito vera is Toronto Raptors level live bet gold. Ewells activity and agression will most assuredly make Chito lose round 1 emphatically but like #wethenorth he finds his way back in.

 

[ill800]

Two cards in a row where low level wmma is where I see the most value

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Two cards in a row where low level wmma is where I see the most value

Dern?

 

[Cockadoodle]

Dern?

Thomas Gifford. Wait that's a dude?

 

[ill800]

Dern?

Nah. I don’t even like dern. She almost lost a decision to Ashley yoder. I actually bet ribas but I’m going to have to go back and review her ground game and tdd. This could be one if the times when my memory has failed me and I make a silly opening line bet

dern is pretty terrible standing and her takedowns are mediocre at best but she is pretty good on the ground. I’ll give her that

I was actually talking about mueller at +160 against jj Aldrich and of course the obvious jeon kim

 

[Jordan3399]

Nah. I don’t even like dern. She almost lost a decision to Ashley yoder. I actually bet ribas but I’m going to have to go back and review her ground game and tdd. This could be one if the times when my memory has failed me and I make a silly opening line bet

dern is pretty terrible standing and her takedowns are mediocre at best but she is pretty good on the ground. I’ll give her that

I was actually talking about mueller at +160 against jj Aldrich and of course the obvious jeon kim

Dern is total fade material here imo. Ribas is a good black belt in BJJ herself plus has a very solid Judo background with the Brazilian National Team. She showed gigantic striking improvements last fight and Dern barely gave birth a few months ago. Most of Dern's TDs are bad clinch attempts that won't work at all on a good judoka and she's never really shown good lower body takedowns either. Unless while pregnant she developed a great double leg I don't like her chances of implementing a reliable gameplan.

 

[ill800]

Dern is total fade material here imo. Ribas is a good black belt in BJJ herself plus has a very solid Judo background with the Brazilian National Team. She showed gigantic striking improvements last fight and Dern barely gave birth a few months ago. Most of Dern's TDs are bad clinch attempts that won't work at all on a good judoka and she's never really shown good lower body takedowns either. Unless while pregnant she developed a great double leg I don't like her chances of implementing a reliable gameplan.

Yes. My brain actually worked here. I put 4 units on ribas and her line is even better now

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Problem with Ribas is if she tries to grapple with Dern, if she's smart and doesn't she could be okay but grappling exchanges are unlikely to go well for her.

I'd also be concerned about Dern coming in overweight again.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Why not? It works on everyone else.

Joanna is excellent at getting back up though, I've only seen Valentina really hold her down consistently.