UFN 161 on ESPN+ 19 Jędrzejczyk vs Waterson

Part 1

Weaver vs Baby cub gifford

Gifford sucks but Weaver has that 70iq “i need to poop” expression constantly on his face
Weaver should win via existing but hes idiotically pulled guillotine attempts a few times which is close to unforgivable in my rulebook
Undecided if i wanna go weaver here

Vettori wins if he pushes any pace / manages not to get taken down, i think he succeeds but -300 is too juicy

Niko price in true meme magic fashion gets a glass jaw opportunity here but prolly finds a way to lose

Anders GM3 fuck this

Kron Gracie vs Cub
Was initially hoping to get Kron at dog odds here, shocked at opening line

The one minute kron was striking with Alex you can clearly see he can’t rely on winning striking battles, hes sub or bust vs Cub who can actually kinda defend Tds
Value on Cub here imo

Ribas vs miss piggy

Value on the dog , better striking and can defend TDs, problem is I suspect she’s stupid enough that shell wanna prove she can grapple with Dern, she might be able to but still
 
Pt 2

Deiveson i like here, Elliots got solid catch wrestling but can be very loose , Dev can explode out from bottom if he gets taken down
Otherwise Dev has a tier higher advantage everywhere

Clark vs spann
I just think of Spann with dozens of piss bottles surrounding him while hes sad.
pass

Vera vs Ewell
Vera by submission will be interesting
Also vera live bet after the inevitable slow start

JJ vs Waterstone

I dont see a path to victory for MW here,
She beat herrig and a shot KK and thats it

JJ has the distance control + TDD that this matchup isnt an issue

Only question is whyd she have to get the fake tits, thats an extra 1.2 pounds she already massively struggles to cut
 
Because everyone is gonna do it anyway...
13DAFE05-AE4A-4BE9-915E-BC4A8D0C2826.jpeg
...and for capping purposes.
 
I’m the only one on Watterson here. Think she’s made some vast improvements and the odds are off.
 
TrueAscension said:
I’m the only one on Watterson here. Think she’s made some vast improvements and the odds are off.
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How do you see her getting it done? Hard to see her outspamming or rocking Joanna. You think she finds grappling success?
 
Waterson isn't going to be hitting head and arm throws on Joanna constantly or sit at range spamming her sidekick. Joanna's probably going to go forward and chop down that weak karate stance and outland Michelle no problem. Waterson likely needs some weird flukey finish to win or major out of nowhere decline in Joanna, I'm not even convinced she has the cardio to go 5 rounds with Joanna when she gassed against Torres.

She's also 12 years into her pro career, I doubt we see some major improvements now and just over a year ago was getting beaten around the octagon by Courtney Casey. She's just not on Joanna's level.
 
Lol bookies are crazy with Vicks odds. Imo he will finish price. Price took some shots in last fights and Vicks chin should be better at welter
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Lol bookies are crazy with Vicks odds. Imo he will finish price. Price took some shots in last fights and Vicks chin should be better at welter
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His chin might just be shot period. The weight cut for sure affected him at 155 but he's taken so much damage so quickly the move up might not matter ala Luke Rockhold.
 
Naught2Sixty said:
His chin might just be shot period. The weight cut for sure affected him at 155 but he's taken so much damage so quickly the move up might not matter ala Luke Rockhold.
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Thought the same but he has only 2 ko loses
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Lol bookies are crazy with Vicks odds. Imo he will finish price. Price took some shots in last fights and Vicks chin should be better at welter
Click to expand...
Changing weight class doesn't get rid of massive defensive issues. Niko can KO most guys at 170 too, he has freakish power.
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Thought the same but he has only 2 ko loses
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4 actually. Hooker, Gaycheese, Dariush and Chiesa on TUF. He has also been severely hurt in multiple fights. Felder rocked him, Trujilo and Franca I think.
 
Naught2Sixty said:
4 actually. Hooker, Gaycheese, Dariush and Chiesa on TUF. He has also been severely hurt in multiple fights. Felder rocked him, Trujilo and Franca I think.
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Nick Hein rocked him a couple of times too

I will forever contend that Gaethje +130 vs Vick is the best bet I have ever made. I couldn’t believe that the market was favoring somebody with such a bad chin vs a guy with Gaethje’s power.
 
TrueAscension said:
Top control or possible arm bar
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This is the one thing keep me from laying the juice on Joanna, but there is no evidence that her grappling D is in decline and she’s actually the younger fighter here.

I can see Waterson mixing in a takedown or two, but I have a hard time see her control Joanna unless she has declined hard.
 
I watched Nikos last fight and changed my mind. Im passing on this fight but I really like this guys to win.
Luis Pena
Marlon Vera
Deveison Figueredo
 
I played JJ -370, I dont think it gets cheaper than -350 again. See no clear path for Waterson. I also played Elliott +185 and Sanchez +250. looking at few other lines but I want them to get a bit better.
 
I remember when i parlayed Nate and Tate, only thing that got me worried was the size of Tates bust. Could those new boobs slow jj down?
 
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