Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jun 18, 2016.
Just over 2 weeks till this event and not one post
Few very early thoughts
noke vs keitas
I think nokes height advantage (6.1") over keitas (5.11") will just be too much for keita to handle, noke can fight from range with leg kicks and long jabs to snag 2 clear rounds I reckon, keita is tough but he will have to find a way to close that gap and get his offence going even then I feel judges like nokes power strikes better. Think it goes to decision since both guys durable so like the overs also, noke decision.
Smolka vs Ben
I like bens style but he really does put 2-3 rounds performance into round 1 and can gas himself out in the later on rounds, bens got a good solid all round game, heavy punches in bunches and wrestling and showed some lovely top control and positional grappling lately, I think round 1 is his best chance for a finish but otherwise smolka would take over in r2 and r3 imo, I think smolka may survive and get the finish in r3.
Eric vs Sam
Eric who was on this seasons tuf see here:
Eric has some good wrestling and single leg take downs, likes to lock in submissions or take opponents backs (much lower tier competition), he is going to struggle here with sam who has a very quick turn around for this fight, sam should be able to stop those take downs and get close enough to start striking here, I doubt eric will be on his bike he tends to prefer to clinch and look to get the fight to the ground. Sam su perhaps eric sub as a hedge I feel.
Tim vs josh
Should be a wild and fun scrap between both guys here but I think tim is fading more recently and been in many battles and is 35, he always has that power but josh does a lot of strength and conditioning also and has shown headkick kos and crafty submissions lately and @ 28 and 6.3" he should be the much better and stronger guy coming in. Tim does have that ko power but think josh should get the w here either by ko or sub.
Linekar vs Mcdonald
I feel Mcdonald is still a young prospect in the sport and well rounded and still has that power in his hands, but linekars in your face forward pressure style with power shots which go from body to head in seconds is proving too much for any opponent recently, I feel the momentums on Linekar to land something big since mcdonald's hands are not as confident as linkekar's right now. Linkekar su maybe will check his decision props.
Chiesa vs Ferguson
I think heart, determination and chin will be on full display in this fight since both guys don't give up and just come forward till one guy is finished. I still feel ferguson is the better all rounded fighter coming in but Chiesa has shown he can strike and submit the best too, I like chiesa sub r1 but Tony to get better from r2 onwards perhaps getting a finish in r2 or r3, will probably live betting tony if he survives r1 also, perhaps the under's or wont go distance props are more safer this fight, just can't see this fight lasting more then 2-3 rounds really.
Spicely goes from having a nervous breakdown and crying after practice on TUF, then having one of the worst performances ever.... to fighting sam alvey?
Tell me about Spicely guys? Easy fight for Alvey?
Idk about easy since Alvey is lower level of the division himself, but I favor him to win from what I've seen of Spicey on TUF
All depends if eric gets that take down, he did show some nice back control and submissions in past fights but also showed he does not like strikers with power, I think sam should be able to keep the fight standing enough and since eric likes to close the distance should allow sam to start countering or fighting at least unlike last time. Sam also needs a W to keep his job due to 2 last losses in ufc. Maybe eric sub in r1 or r2 as a possible hedge at most.
don't know anything about him but unless spicely is a stationary target, i'll happily play him against alvey.
Didn't alvey throw 2 punches last fight against Theo?
Yeah normal Alvey performance!
I like chiesa here I think.
His grappling has been really impressive - not that he will sub ferguson, but if he ends up in top position, which youd think he should, I think he can grind out a decision.
Bigger, stronger, grappling good enough to avoid ferg's crazy subs, wrestling advantage..
If ferg goes for that spinning shit he will propably end up on bottom
Disagree on Chiesa. I really like Ferguson in this spot. Tony is going to a have a huge advantage in the standup and I'm not sure that he's at a disadvantage grappling wise. Chiesa was getting lit up in the first round vs Dariush until Beneil inexplicably gave up his back trying to get back to his feet. I don't expect Ferguson to make the same mistake. I'm not even sure that Chiesa has the size or strength advantage. Chiesa is slightly taller but Tony has a longer reach. Tony has also said that he walks around at 190lbs so he's a big 155er himself.
FWIW, Chiesa was finished by Masvidal with a d'arce choke, which happens to be Ferg's specialty. I think Chiesa sloppy striking is going to be his downfall here. I'm expecting Ferguson to hurt him and finish with a sub. I just can't see Chiesa lasting 5 rounds with a guy as good as Tony.
Im liking Ferg sub +350 especially over 5 rounds. He needs to be careful with that spinning shit he does but that aside i think he gets killed here.
I quite like the fight to finish ITD prop, both are finishers and Ferguson will have a significant advantage in the standup whilst Chiesa can take advantage of the slightest mistake. If you are going to play Chiesa then I think Chiesa ITD is a good shout too as he isn't exactly a round winner.
I probably won't hit it huge but I do like Chiesa based on the lines. Chiesa seems to consistently be underrated but he is really scrappy and seems to alwyas make it close. Ferg is good but I am not super high on him as some in here. I would rather put 1 or 2 units on Chiesa ML than pay the juice on Ferg.
I also don't think Ferg will sub Chiesa. Chiesa is pretty fast and doesn't usually give up position easily.
Chisea lost to a past his best Lauzon and mitch clarke gave him a tough fight. Dariush was destroying him. Hes far too one dimensional no stand up. Ferg as parlay fodder for me. And if masvidal can choke chisea so can ferg.
Regarding alvey's poor showing last outing that could have been due to theo's excellent footwork, use of distance to throw sam off for the entire fight, I did not see eric with too much movement he really did seem content on closing the distance and grabbing a leg for a take down while on tuf soon as he met with a powerful striker he folded.
Its a hard fight to predict, eric is 8-0 (beatall low tier fighters) and this is his first opponent with a decent record or one at least with skill and more decent Ws to his name in sam. I think we see a much desperate sam this fight who will unleash for this ufc job, but if eric is going to get his take downs going he may snag a sub in there.
Eric sub, Sam su is perhaps my only real plays, but still do prefer sam given erics forward pressing style, live betting will be fun for this fight
Well, we can stop debating Chiesa vs Ferg. Chiesa is out.
Cerrone or Poirier for me. Dariush if neither is available.
PRAYING for Cerrone. Jesus what a fight that would be.
We can count Poirier out, he said before fighting Green he'd be taking some time off due to wife's pregnancy
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