UFN 92 - Caceres vs Rodriguez - Utah

[Joseph Budden]

Dias attempted about three takedowns but he found it so difficult getting anywhere near cubs hips or legs unless you are watching closely you wont even realise.

Kawa landed 4 td's on siver and had 7 or 8 stuffed. Two he landed were off kicks and one from siver initiating the td attempt. Kawa only landed one clean td where he didnt catch a leg or have siver clinch with him. Siver is also slower than cub and doesnt have the footwork of cub. Siver backs up in a straight line too cub instinctively circles away from the fence. Siver didnt pressure kawa enough gave him far too much room to move forward and spam singles didnt make kawa respect his striking enough. Id like to see cub come out right away and land some bombs on kawa immediately so he respects that power and therefore make him hesitant to close the gap. Based on bermudez fight tho i expect kawa to hesitate from the get go but cub needs to make sure thats the case and stamp his authority all over this fight from the get go.

38 too nearly 50 fights thats gotta show soon enough too. I rally feel there is a huge gulf standing here and i really think thats going to make kawa hesitant to close the distance.

Agreed. It will make him hesitant on top of how difficult Cub already makes it. Guida probably looked the sharpest of his career standing vs Kawa, but still hard to wipe the memory of Clay dropping him when thinking of Kawa's striking

 

[SalvadorAllende]

So is 1.3u considered $130 to you guys?

I think that in general 1u = 1% of Bankroll. It is a way to compare the level of risk.

It easier that way.... if not rich guys like Sham make bums like me feel bad about themselfes (LoL,just kidding)

 

[Sham5916910]

I think that in general 1u = 1% of Bankroll. It is a way to compare the level of risk.

It easier that way.... if not rich guys like Sham make bums like me feel bad about themselfes (LoL,just kidding)

Ive switched to units now!

 

[oliverinsix]

Size Disparities

Height
• Trevor Smith 4 inches taller (Trevor Smith vs Joseph Gigliotti)
• Maryna Moroz 7 inches taller (#8 Maryna Moroz vs Danielle Taylor)
• Jason Novelli 3 inches taller (David Teymur vs Jason Novelli)
• Horacio Gutierrez 3 inches taller (Teruto Ishihara vs Horacio Gutierrez)

Reach
• Rony Jason 7 inch reach advantage (#8 Dennis Bermudez vs Rony Jason)
• Trevor Smith 6 inch reach advantage (Trevor Smith vs Joseph Gigliotti)
• Maryna Moroz 9 inch reach advantage (#8 Maryna Moroz vs Danielle Taylor)
• Jason Novelli 4 inch reach advantage (David Teymur vs Jason Novelli)

Notes on Danielle Taylor
Profile
• Works as a correctional officer in LA County
• Took up martial arts for self defense because of her work
• 5 Amateur fights, 8 Pro
• Turned Pro in 2014
• Trains out of Saekson's Muay Thai in Van Nuys, CA - No UFC Fighters on their roster that I know of
• Previously trained out of SoCal Fight Factory in Palmdale, CA
• Started with a grappling base training in Wrestling, Judo, and Jiu Jitsu at SoCal Fight Factory
• All pro fights have been under the KOTC banner
• Coaches wanted her to drop down to 105 at one point
• Tried out for TUF 20
Fight Notes
*Some small things I saw in the little amount of footage I could find
• Defensively porous, very hittable at range
• Decent wrestling, lot of head arm throws and double legs
• Most takedowns hit from the clinch it seems
• Has been one punched knocked out cold before
• Strong aggressive blitzes, good finishing instincts, swarms with hooks like a mini Wanderlei when opponent is hurt
• Punch centric striking offense
• Good volume and combination striking
• Good cardio

I was a little perplexed to see Moroz sitting at only a -240 favorite against what seemed to be a very raw green fighter on less than two weeks notice but Taylor definitely packs enough heat and an aggressive style to match to keep things interesting. Was thinking of using Moroz in some parlays but now I'm iffy. Have to go rewatch tape on Moroz but I remember her getting dropped a few times by Valerie so we know she can be cracked. Think she is able to use her range and technical striking to win more times than not though. Taylor doesn't seem to use many kicks so I think she spends the majority of the fight getting tagged at distance. My biggest question mark would be how Moroz responds to the forward pressure Taylor may bring. Gonna be a huge size mismatch though so lines may swing after weigh ins.

 

[Joseph Budden]

An inexperienced woman who favors head and arm throws? Never would've guessed it

 

[Sham5916910]

Why do women always go for head and arm throws and sometimes just the head? Such a bad td to try and hit.

 

[Ukram]

Danielle Taylor, 26 years old @ 5 foot, former KOTC champ with a nick name of dynamite sporting a 7-1 record, her only loss was in her first title defence but in the rematch she reclaimed her belt with a ko win also.

Some fight footage:

HL reel with most of her prior fights mainly against much lower tier competition


her only loss here:


2nd to last fight here:


nice judo throw here:


She may be looking pretty good here, good powerful punches in bunches, powerful take downs and judo displayed and she has done some 5 rounders here, but these are all against much lower tier competition.

The jury is still out with her and she does have have 3 big factors coming into this fight right away, ufc debut, short notice and only 5". I may put a flyer on her though via ko, she could be the female mighty mouse version after all, but overall I can't take away anything from moroz, her boxing skills should be better (she is qualified,sports science degree and trains the Olympic reserve team in boxing) she also has a full camp, major height and size advantage here maybe taylor with the power advantage but is still an unknown for now.

 

[Joseph Budden]

What makes it even funnier is i've never seen many chicks properly do the head arm toss. Maybe there are different techniques than what I learned in wrestling?

http://www.wikihow.com/Do-a-Head-and-Arm-Throw-and-Follow-Through

^^^^but if you look at step five, I feel like I NEVER see women get their hip in that front position when going for it. They just muscle chicks to the mat from the head arm position lol

 

[Ukram]

My biggest question mark would be how Moroz responds to the forward pressure Taylor may bring.

Yeah on the same page here, have watched moroz last 3 fights even her loss with val, val is a tough cat and just had the better night really, moroz was too keen to jump into a sub and ended up getting stuck off her back where val could easily dominate on top, she was trying to go for that jojo sub type finish I feel, it just don't work on val who has good boxing and subs of her own.

moroz has a master of sports and kickboxing, I think taylor could mix in her blitz punches in bunches if she closes the gap or uses take downs to get there but she is just too much of an unknown, yeah it puts me off putting moroz su or in a parlay also especially after holm lol

 

[piglord]

i'm going big on camozzi, no fucks given.

 

[Ukram]

So Rony Jasons fav move is the flying knee and Bermudez fav move going for take downs.....

After last week am thinking of just putting 2-3 small underdog parlays lol

 

[oliverinsix]

Yeah on the same page here, have watched moroz last 3 fights even her loss with val, val is a tough cat and just had the better night really, moroz was too keen to jump into a sub and ended up getting stuck off her back where val could easily dominate on top, she was trying to go for that jojo sub type finish I feel, it just don't work on val who has good boxing and subs of her own.

moroz has a master of sports and kickboxing, I think taylor could mix in her blitz punches in bunches if she closes the gap or uses take downs to get there but she is just too much of an unknown, yeah it puts me off putting moroz su or in a parlay also especially after holm lol

Yeah, the more I think about it the more I think this will probably be a pass for me. Too many unknowns, but the caveat with Taylor is her performances have all been against significantly lower tier comp so I would still favor Moroz for betting. Was on Holm too so I hear ya.

EDIT: Danielle Taylor's opponents combined record is 16-21. All of her finishes have also been over opponents who have been finished before with the exception of Jamie Colleen.

 

[Lightsout671]

Im also big on Camozzi, Moroz, Yair by dec, not sure about Bermudez

 

[Oblivian]

Am I in the right spot?

 

[robbiedawg]

Stop betting Camozzi you fucks I want +200

 

[Oblivian]

Leites all day here...

 

[mkess101]

Stop betting Camozzi you fucks I want +200

LOL that's not gonna happen. +130 more likely than +200 imo. I just took him now at +165, can't risk it getting any worse. Waiting on his dec line but probably won't be much better than the ML I'd guess...

 

[mkess101]

Leites all day here...

Interesting. You didn't think he looked noticeably slower vs Mous than vs Bisping? I bet him vs Bisping, thought he may have won. I think he looked great in that fight. But against Mous just looked so much slower.

Camozzi looks to be coming into his own too. Long, rangy, throws combos and seems to be putting it all together. I think his tdd holds up too if he needs it.

Might be putting too much stock into that one fight for Leites and Mous makes a lot of guys look bad. But I cap this fight very close and think the value is on Camozzi at these odds.

 

[Oblivian]

Interesting. You didn't think he looked noticeably slower vs Mous than vs Bisping? I bet him vs Bisping, thought he may have won. I think he looked great in that fight. But against Mous just looked so much slower.

Camozzi looks to be coming into his own too. Long, rangy, throws combos and seems to be putting it all together. I think his tdd holds up too if he needs it.

Might be putting too much stock into that one fight for Leites and Mous makes a lot of guys look bad. But I cap this fight very close and think the value is on Camozzi at these odds.

Where is Camozzi better than Leites? I don't see a clear route for Camozzi besides a decision that will likely be close.

 

[robbiedawg]

Where is Camozzi better than Leites? I don't see a clear route for Camozzi besides a decision that will likely be close.

He's a better striker, better in the clinch and has the size advantage. Leites has looked old in his recent fights as well. If Camozzi keeps the fight standing he has a ~70% chance to win.