UFN 98 - Ferguson vs RDA - Mexico City

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Sham5916910 said:
I wouldn't be surprised to see it go to a decision but i think if there is a finish Ferg is more likely. Ferg has finished 6 of his last 8 fights and only Thomson could have survived that onslaught, and if that was 5 rounds i think Ferg would have finished. Ferg's never been 5 but cardio is one of his biggest strengths i think he thrives over 5.
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Couldn't agree more. Thompson showed incredible toughness in that fight, most guys would have been finished. Ferg also had his d'arce locked in during the second round but Thompson was able to work his way out of it because he was slippery from a cut opened up with a Ferg elbow.
 
Just rewatched Ferg barboza. Barb was tagging Ferg all nite long until Ferg landed a step in elbow that changed the complexion of the fight. I feel that this is how the fight will rda will play out. Ferg will keep getting tagged until he lands some crazy shit that changes things. Or he snags a sub out of something crazy.
 
Just realised this is at 7000ft. Has either ever fought at elevation before? This could be the x factor over 5 rounds. Ferguson is training at Big Bear which is 7000ft.

Just looking at Grasso HJC. HJC ships over 6 strikes per minute and has 5% td success. She's 36 too that's old as shit for a straw woman. This looks on paper like an awful fight for HJC. Rewatching the KK fight will tell me more as Grasso seems similar type fighter to KK.
 
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OneWarrior1 said:
Just rewatched Ferg barboza. Barb was tagging Ferg all nite long until Ferg landed a step in elbow that changed the complexion of the fight. I feel that this is how the fight will rda will play out. Ferg will keep getting tagged until he lands some crazy shit that changes things. Or he snags a sub out of something crazy.
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I think this is the only way for Ferg to win this. RDA can outstrike and outwrestle him for 5 rounds, but if Ferg lands one of his special shits RDA is going to be in very big trouble.
Very shity lines for now. Ferg ITD and RDA by dec are going to be interessting to see
 
northsofia said:
I think this is the only way for Ferg to win this. RDA can outstrike and outwrestle him for 5 rounds, but if Ferg lands one of his special shits RDA is going to be in very big trouble.
Very shity lines for now. Ferg ITD and RDA by dec are going to be interessting to see
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I hit Ferg ITD at +294 and sub at +550. RDA decision is +205 on 5d and I agree that it's his most likely path to victory.
 
Ferg to submit RDA? I really dont think this could happen
 
northsofia said:
Ferg to submit RDA? I really dont think this could happen
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It can because even though RDA is the better technical grappler Ferg has tremendous finishing ability via sub. And like Cerrone he's phenomenal at capitalizing by hurting guys with strikes and locking in a sub while they are hurt.

I agree Ferg nabbing a sub from guard is unlikely. If he's able to get one it will be due to RDA getting hurt by strikes or because of some crazy scramble where he locks one in.

We've seen top tier grapplers subbed plenty of times by guys that aren't even close to Ferg's league in terms of sub ability.
 
Honestly, Ferg has the best d'arce in the game. He is as equally proficient with any sub involving the neck and has one of the best snap downs onto the mat in MMA. He can definitely snatch a sub.
 
piglord said:
held/sanchez is a quandry. held is elite on the ground but diego's tdd is superb. from what i remember, held's striking is getting better but it's still a work in progress.

interested to see the lines on barzola/avila.

any intel on max griffin? will still fade erick montano even if he did surprisingly well against randy brown.
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Diego is finished, his reflexes are all but shot, he is slow as hell and got sparked by someone who he wouldnt even get stung by 2-3 years ago


Im on Held sub and will be putting him in parlays

I think RDA finishes Tony, he's just too hittable, RDA is sharp as nails and will ABSOLUTELY land something big on Tony, you can pretty much count on it, I think he can finish too, but if he doesnt do it by the end of the second I will be lookinng to lb Tony
 
I also think kicks would make a huge difference here, Tony's style is perfect for RDA's kicking game

The more I think about this fight the more I'm leaning towards RDA, and I didn't necessarily think so when the match up was originally announced
 
I think Ferg is a bit overrated in general. He is dangerous but he isnt a guy who consistently wins rounds.

Ferg thrives on scrambles and RDA is the opposite. RDA will aim to stay in the drivers seat and win rounds.

I actually think most likely way to win for Ferg is sub. However i def favour RDA by dec.

What i dislike about about Ferg is his reckless approach. Of course this makes him a fan favourite but i think this will catch up with him. And specifically RDA can capitalize on his reckless agression.
 
Imo its his recklessness that makes him so dangerous. Im also not convinced rda stops him hes not a finisher and ferg is hard as hell. Five rounds against a relentless tough as hell pressure fighter dangerous with subs and his hands is a dangerous recipe for anyone. Ferg is excellent at cutting you up too i can see this being a bloody chaotic fight where fergs cardio at 7000ft out lasts rda.
 
No way am i touching grasso @ -400. Nice standup but no power and hjc has never been stopped. Took some big shots from kk and kept coming. My biggest concern with grasso is her cage awareness. She gets her back stuck against the cage way too much and im not sold in her tdd. Hjc was able to clinch up and back kk into the cage lots and i think kk is prob stronger than grasso. If she can get grasso down could be interesting. Will prob stab hjc dec but im definitely considering the over here as parlay fodder.

Edit: HJC has split her camp between xtreme couture and jacksons for the altitude.
 
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Sham5916910 said:
Imo its his recklessness that makes him so dangerous. Im also not convinced rda stops him hes not a finisher and ferg is hard as hell. Five rounds against a relentless tough as hell pressure fighter dangerous with subs and his hands is a dangerous recipe for anyone. Ferg is excellent at cutting you up too i can see this being a bloody chaotic fight where fergs cardio at 7000ft out lasts rda.
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Yeah absolutley it is his reckless style that makes him dangerous. I just think its a bad matchup as RDA is more measured and calculated. I do like Ferg NSC as i doubt RDA finishes him.

Some of the rolling subs seemed lame to me because it is very low percentage. This kinda stuff wont phase RDA and may even have Ferg looking silly at times.
 
LEMONZEST said:
Yeah absolutley it is his reckless style that makes him dangerous. I just think its a bad matchup as RDA is more measured and calculated. I do like Ferg NSC as i doubt RDA finishes him.

Some of the rolling subs seemed lame to me because it is very low percentage. This kinda stuff wont phase RDA and may even have Ferg looking silly at times.
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He uses those rolling subs a bit too often. On that I agree. But they do serve a purpose. It's just something more for his opponents to think about. It also can lead to scrambles where he excels.

Ferg can be a bit reckless, but that's misleading as well. It seems to part of his plan to make fights into wars of attrition. When someone is as aggressive and relentless as he is, the opponent has 2 choices. Stand their ground and counter, or basically run away. Well, it's a fight. Unless someone wants to look like Caleb Starns vs Nate Quarry (look it up if you haven't seen it), they have to hang in there and counter. And Ferg will generally land but also get hit. But he KNOWS that, and he trusts his chin, will, and cardio to hold out longer than his opponent's do. And at this point they do pretty much every time.

RDA certainly poses a set of challenges Ferg hasn't had to face yet, but his recklessness isn't just for the hell of it. It's part of his plan.
 
IMO both have the same chin so it will come down to if RDA can control on the ground as I don't see this standing for long.
Ferguson has crazy subs and doesn't stop looking for them but feel RDA will be savvy enough to avoid them if he stays tight, possibly landing enough gnp to avoid stand ups
 
RyuDave said:
IMO both have the same chin so it will come down to if RDA can control on the ground as I don't see this standing for long.
Ferguson has crazy subs and doesn't stop looking for them but feel RDA will be savvy enough to avoid them if he stays tight, possibly landing enough gnp to avoid stand ups
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Wow I don't think either guy mind standing at all. Not saying it won't go to the mat too at times, but I think we'll get plenty of standup action.
 
Anyone liking Dariush here? I just put 3 units on him, the line is off IMO.

Will also have to take a closer look at Ferg is odds get better, guy is dangerous and durable. Like Alltruth was saying, his d'arce is nasty and he sets it up so well off the snapdown, Barboza fight is a perfect example. Wouldn't be surprised to see him finish RDA by KO or sub. I'm not looking to play RDA at current odds so it's dog or pass.

Don't like how lines get released this early, too much time for movement, but like always most of it will be on fight week.
 
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