UFN 98 - Ferguson vs RDA - Mexico City
- Thread starter EzFlyer
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Diego sanchez hasn't never been tapped before and he's hardly a finisher himself, so why the odds in favor of Held by finish? To be honest though I haven't really watched a lot of Held's progression so I'm no expert. Anyone fill me in on Held? I know he's relentless with the leg lock game but doesn't that lead guys with that style to lose decisions? Diego has certainly lost a step but he got KO'd in his last fight rather than getting tapped. Is Held a big puncher? I can't remember.
Any reason not to play the over?
Any reason not to play the over?
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Man idk. Held is not a big puncher but I think Diego is so damaged now
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Do like reyes here in a battle of two front foot fighters. Not sure i can use him as parlay fodder tho hes so damn hittable.
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Did some digging on marcin held I think this video summed him up well
Aggressive submission artist with 55% wins via sub, looks to get the fight to the ground and start working on submission attempts.
But as that bellator guy said his kryptonite is guys that can take him down and wrestle him.
Sanchez has been wrestling and mixing in take downs more lately, so as someone said early on in the thread, sanchez will probably take him down often here and he is a bjj black belt and no sub losses yet.
Bit more tape on marcin here:
Sanchez probably the favourite coming in, but maybe held sub as a good hedge. Maybe in r1 when both guys are fresher, held has more subs in r1 then any else.
Aggressive submission artist with 55% wins via sub, looks to get the fight to the ground and start working on submission attempts.
But as that bellator guy said his kryptonite is guys that can take him down and wrestle him.
Sanchez has been wrestling and mixing in take downs more lately, so as someone said early on in the thread, sanchez will probably take him down often here and he is a bjj black belt and no sub losses yet.
Bit more tape on marcin here:
Sanchez probably the favourite coming in, but maybe held sub as a good hedge. Maybe in r1 when both guys are fresher, held has more subs in r1 then any else.
Held -220 or so down under. Very sizeable fav
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I watched a bit of tape on Dariush/Magomedov but I don't see value on either guy. I think Rashid as a slight favorite is right, would hit Dariush if he moved up to +170 though.
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Beneil is a live dog for sure and +140 is too good to pass up. You could argue that he should be the fav.
A lot of reasons to like Ferg as a dog too, like I said before he is durable and dangerous. Will probably end up playing him just waiting for some more money to come in on RDA
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I've been watching Held for years, obviously very dangerous on the ground and very aggressive with his sub attempts. He's a little stiff on the feet, I actually think Diego is the better striker.
Held does have decent wrestling but I don't see him completing takedowns against Diego. Sometimes he'll abandon his TD attempts and pull 50/50 and go for leg locks and I expect him to do this vs Diego because the takedown won't come easy. The biggest hole in Held's game is his cardio, something he's always struggled with and something that he's been trying to fix recently.
Interesting match up with Diego, the line is way off, Held should not be such a big favourite. There is value on Diego, he's hard to finish, solid TDD, solid sub defence, better striker, better cardio. Wouldn't surprise me to see Diego win a 29-28 decision.
Diego has never been subbed and only been stopped stopped by KO/TKO twice. One time was due to the cut Penn opened up on him and obviously the other was by Lauzon in his last fight. Diego looked bad against Lauzon, got hurt early and Lauzon didn't let up but he never actually went down, one of the best chins in MMA.
I thought Diego looked good against Lymes Disease Miller though, if that Diego shows up then he can win.
If you wanna play the over I can't blame you, line is reasonable but I'm actually liking Diego as a dog, fuck Held's current line, it's a joke.
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Cardio is the biggest concern regarding Held, rd 3 in altitude against Diego Sanchez in Mexico , will likely go to Diego, if he gets a couple minutes of top control in the other rounds he can def get this dec, will most likely put a small play on Diego dec, tho he looked shot in his last fight so it will only be small
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Jeez Polo Reyes lands over 9 slpm! Highest I've ever seen. He also ships over 6 highest i've seen too! Not sure if Titan is included but he lands over 1 slpm. Hard not to like Polo Reyes more based on those stats.
Edit: damn hes a savage just watched his first fight on tuf!
Edit: damn hes a savage just watched his first fight on tuf!
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dariush dropping towards evens pretty quickly..
i'm getting in on it before it drops further. taking +135.
he has more power & better subs than mago. mago is more technical standing. mago coming off of a long layoff.
i admit i sometimes find that i "don't get it" with mago.. he lulls me to sleep w/his style... maybe i'm missing something, but yea. i think dariush has more ways to win and like i said, price is dropping. i don't wanna miss out on the movement.
i'm getting in on it before it drops further. taking +135.
he has more power & better subs than mago. mago is more technical standing. mago coming off of a long layoff.
i admit i sometimes find that i "don't get it" with mago.. he lulls me to sleep w/his style... maybe i'm missing something, but yea. i think dariush has more ways to win and like i said, price is dropping. i don't wanna miss out on the movement.
I agree that Dariush has more ways to win and I think there's value in his current line. I see it as a 50/50 fight at worst, but I actually probably favor Beneil a little bit. I think this is probably the best odds we'll get on him.
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isn't this the TUF Latin America season 3 finale? There's already 12 bouts announced for this card so unless I'm a complete idi-ass the only cast member fight will be the tourney final? anybody keeping up with this season?
Yes, I watched every episode so far and took detailed notes on it. It was a 16-man lightweight tournament this season not two 8-man tournaments in two different weight classes like in some previous seasons, so there will be only one weight class represented and one final bout. Maybe they'll add one more bout with the other two semi-finalists matching up or not. Frankly the talent level isn't there for most of these guys to make it in the UFC.
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Is rda training with evolve or kings?
Edit: seems hes up in mammouth mountain now.
Edit: seems hes up in mammouth mountain now.
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Looking at his Instagram, it seems he is training at Kings MMA.
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Need to watch tape on perez to be sure but just watched arantes' last 4 fights. His td defence is porous like so bad. Tough to keep down tho and dangerous off his back but you should not be getting armbarred from someones guard if you're in the ufc in 2016. Think the elevation will help perez too as both are always in high volume fights. Possible parlay fodder for me.
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