With the coronavirus in mind, will you continue to roll?

youngsteinel

youngsteinel

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I would think I would probably stop rolling for now if I was still doing BJJ. What about you all?
 
yes cause i dont buy into every hype remember ebola? west nile virus?
 
I’m in New Zealand. There have only been single digit cases of corona, and no new ones for days now.

So, yes, I’m going to continue rolling.

If it ever reaches epidemic levels where I live, then I’ll think about taking a break. Although at that point, BJJ becomes less of a concern than making sure I can get food at the supermarket etc.
 
You have a much larger chance of dying in a car crash on the way in to training than you do from getting sick and dying from coronavirus. I’m talking approximately 50 times more likely. Unless you are in close proximity at home with the elderly or someone with a weak immune system you will be fine.

As a first responder holy fuck this is getting annoying.
 
My folks are a little older and I like to see them every 2 weeks or so. I would really love to roll but I would hate for something to happen to them.
 
my gym is closed for the next 10 days,

dunno about hq in nyc (renzos)
 
RyanR said:
You have a much larger chance of dying in a car crash on the way in to training than you do from getting sick and dying from coronavirus. I’m talking approximately 50 times more likely. Unless you are in close proximity at home with the elderly or someone with a weak immune system you will be fine.

As a first responder holy fuck this is getting annoying.
Click to expand...

this.. lol i said the exact thing that u have a better chance of dying in a car crash yet people drive daily and even text and drive... now what does this tell us about people...
 
I plan to keep training. Just like how I keep training during flu season all these years. I do not really see what the difference is except for more media coverage.
 
I would agree I plan to train

But then Stephan Kesting sent this to me in the email

o


I've been getting a lot of questions about this so let's talk about covid 19 and BJJ...

I approach this from two perspectives...

On the one hand I have trained in the martial arts for 40 years and got my BJJ black belt 14 years ago...

...but on the other I have both a B.Sc. and an M.Sc. in biology and have been following the science around this virus fairly carefully.

Bottomline: I think we're in big trouble. Really. Big. Trouble.

And I don't think we should be training, at least not in the way that we normally do.

Let me explain...

The Big Problem
One of the big problems with this virus is that it's contagious BEFORE there are symptoms.

That means you could be rolling around with someone who seems perfectly fine, not the slightest cough or any indication of fever, and they can still give you the damn thing.

But maybe you're 20 years old. If so you might reasonably object that this virus mostly affects old people.

And that's roughly true. Based on early mortality studies coming out of places like China and Korea the older you get the more likely you are to die from it.

Let me rebut this a few different ways...

First of all, even if you don't die it's still going to suck for you. People who hae recovered from this thing describe it as the feeling of being suffocated alive.

Secondly, even if you're not badly affected you could still transmit it to your parents, the grocer, the little old lady sitting next to you o the bus and kill them.

Thirdly, the less fast this thing spreads the more time society and the medical system has to prepare, so don't be a selfish douchebag.

You might ask, "But isn't the infection rate going down in China?"

Yes, it looks like the rates have mostly levelled off there, but China also took incredibly drastic measures in late January (after first lying about it of course) that are unlikely to be enacted anywhere else.

(And I guarantee you that BJJ clubs weren't allowed to be operating in Wuhan after January 24th or so.)

The Science
There's a TON of information and misinformation out there about this virus - some of it politically motivated - and it's hard to sort out fact from fiction.

Two really good podcast episodes that passed my biologist's sniff test were the Joe Rogan talking with Michael Osterholm (JRE #1439) and Sam Harris talking with Nicholas Christakis (Making Sense #190).

If you listen to both of those episodes you'll be fairly well caught up on the present state of the science.

Ultimately we've got something that is very contagious and also reasonably deadly that is going to overwhelm the healthcare system.

What I'm Going to Do
I personally am washing and sanitizing my hands about 20 times a day.

I'm not shaking hands and am practising social distancing.

I pulled my kids from school and out of extracurricular activities yesterday.

I'm have to take a flight tomorrow but will be wearing an M95 mask and be sanitising my entire area as soon as I sit down. My clothing will also go directly into the wash as soon as I get home.

Unfortunately if you can get this virus from having someone breath on you then a more effective mode of transmission than rolling around on the ground with people who have also been rolling with other people cannot be imagined.

I wish it weren't true.

But until this thing is under control I'm not training with anyone anymore.

Not grappling, not striking, not weapons.

I love training. And I have a vested financial interest in the health of the sport. And I have many friends who make their living teaching jiu-jitsu and martial arts.

Until we have more data about this whole thing I'm going to do strength and conditioning and work on my BJJ skills by watching videos. I'm just NOT willing to risk bringing an infection to my family and coworkers because of how much I enjoy training.

And if you run a school then I think it's irresponsible to keep it open at this point.

Your school IS going to close at some point (I should add that hopefully this is just temporarily).

The only question is whether you close it before or after you allowed one person to transmit it to 10 new people and thus perpetuate the exponential growth of this infection.

The only good news that I can think of is that at least you won't be the only person negotiating with your landlord and your creditors for a temporary suspension of payments.

Everyone will be in the same boat and eventually there might be some sort of government intervention on this front (I'm not sure about how it works but Italy has suspended mortgage payments,

I really, truly wish it weren't so. And maybe the science is wrong, but the smart money says otherwise.

Richard Feynman said that, "The first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool."

Let's not fool ourselves on this one.

Stephan
Click to expand...

Seems like an over reaction but it has me thinking
 
Yeah, my gym has a good hygiene policy. I trust my teammates to wash their gear
 
To be honest, I’m not sure yet. I want to train tomorrow, but I’ve never seen anything like this. Maybe it’s not a bad idea for me to take a week or two off.
 
One thing this virus has revealed is that not everyone has proficiency in middle school math. People think cases are few in number so no big deal, but have no idea what an exponential curve looks like.

Worse are those who say the flu kills more. They don't even know how to multiply and take percentages.
 
All elders in my family are dead. Also I'm in Ontario. I think I'll be fine. I'd respect my gyms decision if they closed though
 
It's airborne. Meaning going onto the mat with 15 people is still safer than going into a supermarket with a thousand people.
 
Normot said:
It's airborne. Meaning going onto the mat with 15 people is still safer than going into a supermarket with a thousand people.
Click to expand...
It seems likely it can be transmitted at distance. The cases in the reports are of people who sat at restaurant tables together and that kind of thing. The odds don't really compare to the near certainty of passing it to someone you roll with.

The idea is that you should avoid contact to slow the spread in the population so that there's an outside chance every vulnerable person doesn't get it at the same time and completely swamp the intensive care beds that they'll need to survive, not so much that healthy young people should worry for their own health. Though some people who train are e.g. asthmatics like me, and at slightly elevated risk.
 
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