UFC 198 - Curitiba - Werdum vs Miocic

[Timurd123]

I've just watched lilnog vs shogun
I can't see him stopping the takedown to be honest and his only way he will is if he can land Jabs and straight lefts to keep distance and hope he can knee/uppercut Cummings as he comes in..
But I see Cummings walking through them to be honest and tats a shame as I have nog in some of my plays!

Cummins striking is worse than Ronda's tho
He is just attrocious

 

[Sham5916910]

Im not as confident as most people in Corey and Cummins. I think Cummins wins but hes very one dimensional and if he does struggle for takedowns hes in trouble. Villante knocked Corey out and he struggled with Lawlor who is a MW. I know Shogun has faded but i wouldnt write him off completely in this fight.

 

[RyuDave]

That's why I have a nog shogun double team.

 

[mkess101]

Im not as confident as most people in Corey and Cummins. I think Cummins wins but hes very one dimensional and if he does struggle for takedowns hes in trouble. Villante knocked Corey out and he struggled with Lawlor who is a MW. I know Shogun has faded but i wouldnt write him off completely in this fight.

Cummins is one dimensional but is he's watched ANY tape he'll see he can hit single legs on lil Nog easily. I just don't know how lil Nog stops Cummins from putting him on his back. As was mentioned, Cummins striking sucks but to his credit he KNOWS it sucks and I don't think has any delusions of standing very long at all.

Shogun could catch Corey, but that's his only chance imo. And even standing I favor Corey's youth, chin, size, and athleticism. And if he decides to put Shogun on his back (like he finally decided to do to Lawlor in rd 3) I don't know how Shogun stops him.

 

[Discjockeyshtud]

EDIT: while i mention the word 'parlay', it doesn't need to be said that the best plays are single bets and NOT parlays. I've already placed and will have placed my single plays but I reserve alot of my action for Live-Bets too.

Early Preliminary Parlay

Tukhugov/Carneiro o2.5 (-135)
Lineker/Font o1.5 (-145)
Cummins/Nogueira dec (-140)

Lotto Parlay

Carneiro dec +443
Lineker dec +439
Maia sub

Tailing your lotto parlay with Jacare & Redwood stacked on, love a long shot

 

[SirKratos]

Besides FOTN, avoiding event props like the plague on this card. Could see a bunch of decisions, could see a bunch of finishes.

O2.5 Sub?

 

[Rando]

Cummins striking is worse than Ronda's tho
He is just attrocious

This may be beside the point, but do you guys ever look at the stats on UFC.com? It has striking %...striking % defended, takedown %...ect. It tells you how many strikes absorbed and landed per minute...I assume just in UFC bouts. How useful is this info? How accurate?

According to it, you'd think Cummins was not a horrible striker

 

[Rando]

Cummins is one dimensional but is he's watched ANY tape he'll see he can hit single legs on lil Nog easily. I just don't know how lil Nog stops Cummins from putting him on his back. As was mentioned, Cummins striking sucks but to his credit he KNOWS it sucks and I don't think has any delusions of standing very long at all.

I believe EZ Flyer mentioned that Cummins could have trouble shooting from the outside...that clinch takedowns might be the better option for him. Do you have any insight on that?

 

[waiguoren]

This may be beside the point, but do you guys ever look at the stats on UFC.com? It has striking %...striking % defended, takedown %...ect. It tells you how many strikes absorbed and landed per minute...I assume just in UFC bouts. How useful is this info? How accurate?

According to it, you'd think Cummins was not a horrible striker

I believe those striking figures include ground strikes. Cummins is pretty devastating with strikes on the ground.

 

[Dooze]

Which way do you guys think is best to bet the Alves/Barberena fight? Warlley seems a bit too short to do as a single SU @ 1.18 but I don't really know how I see Barberena winning. I was thinking of Alves ITD @ 1.53, he probably wins by sub which I can get @ 2.10 but he's got power too as seen in that Jouban fight. I kinda settled on u2.5 @ 1.47 since outside of a late 3rd round finish it'd cover the Alves ITD bet as well as Barberena if he somehow managed to pull it off (10/11 his wins are ITD) but a lot of his fights seem to go quite deep into the fight and of his losses, 2 were by decision and the other a late 3rd round sub.

I think out of them all I'm leaning towards the u2.5 but I don't really know, expectation is Warlley finishes him early (probably via choke) but doing the old MMAth he seems kind of durable, just feels like a matter of how long can he survive.

What leans did you lot get from this fight?

 

[RyuDave]

Already have $8000 risked on this event, and not done yet.

I believe those striking figures include ground strikes. Cummins is pretty devastating with strikes on the ground.

Have you posted your picks?

 

[waiguoren]

Have you posted your picks?

Picks...ok....a first for me.

Tukhugov (can't find enough tape on Moicano)
Moraes
Trinaldo
Cummins
Font
Santos
Alves
Maia
Anderson
Justino
Souza
Miocic

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Picks...ok....a first for me.

Tukhugov (can't find enough tape on Moicano)
Moraes
Trinaldo
Cummins
Font
Santos
Alves
Maia
Anderson
Justino
Souza
Miocic

Interesting. How do you think Miocic wins? Not saying you're wrong or anything

 

[waiguoren]

@hazak

What ever happened to you? I miss you in these threads.

 

[waiguoren]

Interesting. How do you think Miocic wins? Not saying you're wrong or anything

It's a tough matchup but I think he wins the same way he always does. Superior pressure+pace+boxing+cardio and underrated power. He's younger and I think he is obsessed.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

It's a tough matchup but I think he wins the same way he always does. Superior pressure+pace+boxing+cardio and underrated power. He's younger and I think he is obsessed.

Him still working a full time job (I think) and the fight being in Brazil are some concerns of mine.

 

[Rando]

Alright, I'm in research mode right now until the fights begin basically. I just watched Tukhugov/Nover, here is my notes from that as well as my notes I posted a few days ago on his opponent.

I watched 1 fight so far as far as research goes. Here's some notes from the Carniero/Niinimaki fight.

Renato Carneiro

Bio
5'11, is tall for FW
-Trains in Brazil at Constrictor Team, with Rani Yahya, Francisco Trinaldo, and a few other undefeated guys. Seems like a solid camp. Not sure how good his wrestling will become.
-Did not have an easy path to the UFC apparently, most or all regional opponents were winning records.
-UFC debut against Niinimaki, won by submission. Niinimaki has been submitted 5x in his career, and was submitted by choke in his last 3 fights (Skelly, Backstrom, Caneiro).

Physical
-Probably not a ton of strength. More of a speed/cardio fighter.
-Cardio seemed fine in round 2.

Striking
-Very good kicks. High, low, mid kicks. Attempted a spinning kick.
-Very good hand speed.
-Seems to utilize a reach advantage well vs Niinimaki.
-Good technical offense.
-Has eaten some leg kicks. Has checked some.
-Good at using reach and distance.
-Stays on the offensive, controls the center of the cage.
-Good at avoiding strikes, but does seem susceptible to punches at times.
-Catches kicks.
-Good counter striker.
-Good killer instinct.
-Not a ton of punching power, but kicks hard.
-Didn't see clinch work

Grappling
-Started training in elementary school in Judo. Then progressed into BJJ.
-Ground seems to be strength, but striking is solid.
-Wasted no time jumping on a hurt opponent.
-Immediately passed, then during a scramble took the back and good body triangle. Solid RNC vs a decent grappler who was hurt.
-Has a judo background, didn't get to see it.
-Didn't see much wrestling or any GnP in the fight.

Zubaira Tukhugov

Physical
-25 years old
-5'8 ... 68 inch reach
-Aggressive
-Does not seem to gas in rounds 2 or 3. Maybe less output in round 3, but not nearly gassed.
-Ate a high kick from Nover but turned it into a takedown...chin seems fine.
-1 KO loss early in career.

Striking
-Quick punches
-Seems very powerful
-Throws more punches than kicks.
-Wings punches...sambo style.
-Throws kicks from both legs, decent.
-Does throw spinning kicks.
-Catches kicks into sweeps.
-Could be exposed to leg kicks with forward style
-Seems to have good movement/octogon control
-Decent head movement, sometimes keeps hands low
-Was able to stun Nover, and shows killer instinct, but was not able to finish. Stayed relatively composed and didn't expend all energy in an attempt to finish.

Grappling
-Master of Sports in Combo Sambo, so have to assume his takedowns are solid as well as grappling/wrestling.
-Big GnP from standing over opponent
-Prefers striking to grappling
-Nover was able to get back to his feet after Zubaira took him down.
-Submitted once early in career.
-Not sure about his submission offense or defense at this point.

This is a tough fight to predict. Honestly, I think I'm going to go with the Brazilian. I think he might be able to capitalize on leg kicks. I think the fight will probably remain standing for the most part, and I think Tukhagov has the power edge, but might be a little less technical. Tough one to call for sure, these seem like two very good prospects.

 

[Rando]

@hazak

What ever happened to you? I miss you in these threads.

Yeah I agree. He just disappeared almost a year ago? Bummer, hope the guy is ok and just quit sherdog or made a diff account.

 

[waiguoren]

Him still working a full time job (I think) and the fight being in Brazil are some concerns of mine.

Yeah not sure if he took off for this training camp, but probably not. He still gets in two-a-days and this lifestyle has been working for him against good opponents for years. Dude almost beat enhanced JDS with a full-time job. Also he has done the Brazil thing before, not on this scale obv, but he seems to embrace it.

 

[waiguoren]

Alright, I'm in research mode right now until the fights begin basically. I just watched Tukhugov/Nover, here is my notes from that as well as my notes I posted a few days ago on his opponent.









This is a tough fight to predict. Honestly, I think I'm going to go with the Brazilian. I think he might be able to capitalize on leg kicks. I think the fight will probably remain standing for the most part, and I think Tukhagov has the power edge, but might be a little less technical. Tough one to call for sure, these seem like two very good prospects.

I agree this is the hardest call on the card.