UFC 198 - Curitiba - Werdum vs Miocic

[Rando]

Sérgio Moraes vs Luan Chagas preview/prediction is updated

http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufc-198-curitiba-werdum-vs-miocic.3237657/page-38#post-116672555

 

[Rando]

Chagas 74 inch reach
Train Gile Ribeiro/Noguchi Team (this last was Anderson Silva first gym)
Similar strong as Sergio. Agressive striker with good power but tdd questionable. Bjj and carate Black belt, inferior grappling against Sergio, but good. Would fight next saturday in Imortal 4 but signed with UFC for 2 or 3 fights.

1 unit on Over 1,5
0.2 unit on Chagas decision (lines very good to this)

I pretty much came to the same conclusion about Chagas TDD. Thanks for the info. I think the odds are pretty on point with Moraes -470.

Looking over the props. Moraes -3.5 (-325) looks tempting as I think he will either win by sub or win 30-27. I could be wrong. Do you think Chagas can hang on the ground for 15 minutes?

Do you think he has a weird blocking technique? It seems like sometimes he just raises his hands high in the air like above his head. It seems like a weird way to block.

 

[Sham5916910]

So who shits the bed considering everone pretty much is on Cummins Alves Santos Cyborg Anderson Jacare?

 

[Rando]

So who shits the bed considering everone pretty much is on Cummins Alves Santos Cyborg Anderson Jacare?

Damn I'm probably going to be on those guys as well.

Maybe try a 6 team parlay.

 

[Joseph Budden]

So who shits the bed considering everone pretty much is on Cummins Alves Santos Cyborg Anderson Jacare?

None

EDIT you forgot that every single person is also on Maia lol

 

[edole]

So who shits the bed considering everone pretty much is on Cummins Alves Santos Cyborg Anderson Jacare?

I think the two most likely candidates to Shit the bed are Anderson and Cummins but I don't know Shit.

 

[lefontes]

I pretty much came to the same conclusion about Chagas TDD. Thanks for the info. I think the odds are pretty on point with Moraes -470.

Looking over the props. Moraes -3.5 (-325) looks tempting as I think he will either win by sub or win 30-27. I could be wrong. Do you think Chagas can hang on the ground for 15 minutes?

Do you think he has a weird blocking technique? It seems like sometimes he just raises his hands high in the air like above his head. It seems like a weird way to block.

Sergio and Luan are training on very rivals muay thai gyms in Curitiba: Evolucao Thai vs Noguchi Team, imo this fight not go to the ground. Both will proof one per other striking game. Because this i like a lot this over 1,5. If going to the ground, Chagas is good, good guard, but Sergio is high level. Imo Sergio not sub Chagas.

 

[lefontes]

Corey Anderson pressure is very big. Shogun is hero on Curitiba, 45k on stadium against him. i like Shogun as dog here because pressure on Corey is big.

 

[SamHale]

In 365's 'double chance' market last week I caught 'Struve by KO/TKO by Decision' at 1.83, was almost too good to be true.

This week I quite like 'Warlley Alves by Submission or Decision' at 1.72 (-138), again decent odds for the two most likely outcomes of the fight.

 

[Rando]

Sergio and Luan are training on very rivals muay thai gyms in Curitiba: Evolucao Thai vs Noguchi Team, imo this fight not go to the ground. Both will proof one per other striking game. Because this i like a lot this over 1,5. If going to the ground, Chagas is good, good guard, but Sergio is high level. Imo Sergio not sub Chagas.

Thanks! If they do stand, that does concern me. I just put $100 on Moraes -3.5 pts (-325)...and if they do stand I think its more of an even fight. Moraes has been KO'd and rocked before.

I also put down 75 on the over 1.5

Luan Chagas/Sergio Moraes Over 1½ +110 (Risk 75 / Win 82.50)
Moraes points handicap -3½ -325 (Risk 100 / Win 30.77)

 

[SalvadorAllende]

...i have cummins -165.

...but.

...i'm having second thoughts. he can get so sloppy.. i really thought nog won rd 1 and 3 vs shogun... he still has heart... in brazil....

talk me out of this craziness...

I thought Nog lost that fight 28-29 but only because he got taken down. There are two thing to remark here:

1) Nog was outboxing Shogun and had him hurt a couple of times. That tells me that Corey could do the same without being taken dowin in the process.

2) Shogun took Nog down with ease but his TDs were from trips while Cummins is more a double or single TDs type of guy iirc... pure wrestling.

 

[Agent Mulder]

In 365's 'double chance' market last week I caught 'Struve by KO/TKO by Decision' at 1.83, was almost too good to be true.

This week I quite like 'Warlley Alves by Submission or Decision' at 1.72 (-138), again decent odds for the two most likely outcomes of the fight.

Good spot on that Alves line. Hitting for 1u.

 

[weedreference]

Pulled the trigger on Anderson to win 2u. There are a lot of scenarios I can imagine him winning, and only one for Shogun (random KO). If it is striking late I think it will be Anderson piecing him up. Shogun has really bad movement, especially late. If ground then Anderson will almost definitely have control. He showed good stuff through some adversity versus Lawlor (though he should have lost, god damn it).

 

[iGnP]

I thought Nog lost that fight 28-29 but only because he got taken down. There are two thing to remark here:

1) Nog was outboxing Shogun and had him hurt a couple of times. That tells me that Corey could do the same without being taken dowin in the process.

2) Shogun took Nog down with ease but his TDs were from trips while Cummins is more a double or single TDs type of guy iirc... pure wrestling.

Nog's boxing is much better than Anderson's

 

[Sham5916910]

Ive shown amazing constraint not to have half my br tied up here there seems so many sure things. Someone is bound to shit that bed. If they dont man im gonna be gutted. Be management is key tho must stay strong.

 

[RyuDave]

So who shits the bed considering everone pretty much is on Cummins Alves Santos Cyborg Anderson Jacare?

I have a feeling it's Anderson and Cummings, more so Anderson under pressure of the whole thing but maybe Cummings eats something and he turtles

 

[Rando]

One thing I'm noticing in the Shogun/Lil Nog fight is Lil Nog almost always circles towards the power hand. Lil Nog is a south paw. I wonder if he does that in all his fights.

I don't think Lil Nog's boxing is too bad even at his age. Not sure how much it has declined since his prime. Seems to be decent technique and decent power. Staying composed while Shogun is rocked in round 1, not going crazy with aggression but keeping the pressure on.

Shogun was able to grab a single leg and hit it at the beginning of round 2. Makes me think Cummins could do the same. Maybe Lil Nog wasn't expecting a takedown from Shogun though. I'm sure he'll be looking for it vs Cummins

 

[RyuDave]

I've done about 20u in various teams and parlays but going to do another 20u straight and some lb untill about 3am I can't do another all nighter it doesn't finish till 6.30-7am

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Lil Nog only has 3 submissions in all of his fights, the last one being in 2009 against Dion Staring. I don't see Cummins leaving himself open for a submission, but who knows. The best strategy here for Cummins would be to clinch a lot and wear Nog out against the cage.

I thought Lil Nog looked pretty terrible in his last many fights. He's so slow and has so little output, though at times he shows some of his former boxing prowess. Perhaps the over bet is good for this fight.

His decline reminds me a lot of Shogun - they both lost that speed, quickness, and explosiveness that gave them so much success. They both sort of lumber around in the cage with really slow plodding footwork.

I thought the same too.. Lil Nog looked bad at the weigh ins. Like he he had zero energy.
But still I think he has not declined as bad as people says.

I believe EZ Flyer mentioned that Cummins could have trouble shooting from the outside...that clinch takedowns might be the better option for him. Do you have any insight on that?

There is one detail. If shogun beat Lil Nog it is because he came with a gameplan and took Minotoro down. Guess what? cummins trains in Kings under Cordeiro too. They will come ready.

Nog's boxing is much better than Anderson's

More technical sure but I think is slower at this point and if I am not mistaken he has height and reach.
Corey Anderson can definitely be catched by something.

 

[Sham5916910]

I've done about 20u in various teams and parlays but going to do another 20u straight and some lb untill about 3am I can't do another all nighter it doesn't finish till 6.30-7am

If im up healthily im going to bed after Cyborg fight. I pray im not down or i will prob end up until the end!