Lil Nog only has 3 submissions in all of his fights, the last one being in 2009 against Dion Staring. I don't see Cummins leaving himself open for a submission, but who knows. The best strategy here for Cummins would be to clinch a lot and wear Nog out against the cage.
I thought Lil Nog looked pretty terrible in his last many fights. He's so slow and has so little output, though at times he shows some of his former boxing prowess. Perhaps the over bet is good for this fight.
His decline reminds me a lot of Shogun - they both lost that speed, quickness, and explosiveness that gave them so much success. They both sort of lumber around in the cage with really slow plodding footwork.