UFC 198 - Curitiba - Werdum vs Miocic

[Rando]

I agree this is the hardest call on the card.

No doubt. Man I wonder if I have enough time to do research on the remaining 12 fights before fight time haha. I'll try though.

 

[EzFlyer]

This may be beside the point, but do you guys ever look at the stats on UFC.com? It has striking %...striking % defended, takedown %...ect. It tells you how many strikes absorbed and landed per minute...I assume just in UFC bouts. How useful is this info? How accurate?

According to it, you'd think Cummins was not a horrible striker

Stats in Mma are largely irrelevant.. In other sports, every team plays the same amount of games and against largely the same competition (at least the same level of competition)

 

[EzFlyer]

Alright, I'm in research mode right now until the fights begin basically. I just watched Tukhugov/Nover, here is my notes from that as well as my notes I posted a few days ago on his opponent.









This is a tough fight to predict. Honestly, I think I'm going to go with the Brazilian. I think he might be able to capitalize on leg kicks. I think the fight will probably remain standing for the most part, and I think Tukhagov has the power edge, but might be a little less technical. Tough one to call for sure, these seem like two very good prospects.

It is tougher than I originally thought. I maxed (3.5 for 2.5) the tuk opener of -140 and was all proud of myself when he was like -220... Lol. That didn't last.

I've since hedged all the way down to 1.28u to win 1u on tuk.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Werdum in worse shape than usual right? A bit surprising.

 

[Bless]

Dunno if it was posted already in this topic, but Unibet has Werdum/Miocic end in Split/Maj decision at +550.
I've hit it small to win 2u.

And BetVictor has Werdum wins by sub in rd 4 @+5000, hit it for 0.1u

 

[Joseph Budden]

Werdum in worse shape than usual right? A bit surprising.

Definitely softer around the midsection than he was for the Cain fight. I noticed that too

 

[Dooze]

Werdum comparison pics (vs Miocic/Cain/Hunt):

Weigh in:

Spoiler

Miocic

Cain

Hunt

Side on/staredown:

Spoiler

Miocic

Cain

Hunt

Definitely a bit softer around the gut.

 

[Rando]

I think Moraes is a much better overall fighter than Chagas. A lot is going to depend on whether or not Moraes can take Chagas down. If it is a striking battle, I could see it going either way. I think Chagas has such weak TDD that even if Moraes shoots with crappy takedowns, he should get the fight there. With the high level sub game, he probably wins by sub, unless Chagas is some amazing grappler as well and I just don't know it. He seems decent, maybe enough to not get submitted, but doesn't have the pedigree in BJJ. I think Moraes is going to win by sub or decision. Not impressed by Chagas. He is 22 though, if I were both of these guys I'd work on wrestling.

Sérgio Moraes
-33 years old
-6'0 - 72 inch reach
-2006 Debut (12 fights in 10 years)
-4-1 UFC, 2-1 Jungle Fight, 1-0 Bellator
-#37 Ranked WW on Tapology
-Trains at Alliance Jiu Jitsu

Physical
-1 loss by KO (Brett Cooper)
-Gets injured a lot
-Seems quick, not too strong but has KO power. Athletic.
-Chin seems questionable.
-Didn't seem to gas in round 2 or 3 vs Akhmedov. In fact his best moment was in round 3, though he doesn't seem like a cardio machine or anything.

Striking
-Throws flying knees as well as traditional knees. Not bad.
-Throws kicks, high and low. Also front kicks.
-Limited striker..still improving.
-Likes to control center and be aggressive.
-Throws counter left hook, misses.
-Very looping punches with both hands. Probably would be better throwing straight punches. The looping punches are just too slow and choreographed.
-1 punch in and out, or he throws his looping punches in combos. Could get lucky with looping punches, but decent strikers will capitalize and probably KO him.
-Decent movement
-Decent at blocking, but leaves himself open
-Clipped by 1 short shot and knocked down by Akhmedov in round 1. Not sure about his chin
-When knocked down, his ground game is so good that it could help his recoveries. Guys may be afraid to play on the ground.
-Clipped Akhmedov with a right in round 3 and swarmed the stunned Russian. This is where the looping punches come in handy, as he showed good killer instinct finishing the fight with them.

Grappling
-4 time BJJ World Champion
-Defeated Kron Gracie @ 2008 World Championship in BJJ
-Submitted Neil Magny in 3 minutes.
-Takedown and wrestling game seems weak. Vs Akhmedov is 0/2 or 0/3 on takedowns. Might know that he could not take the Russian down.
-If he had the takedowns this guy probably would be a lot better in MMA.
-Akhmedov took him down at the end of round 2, Moraes immediately locks in a guillotine attempt until the bell. BJJ is probably world class.




Luan Chagas
-22 years old
-5'11 - ?? inch reach
-2012 Debut (15 fights in 4 years)
-0-0 UFC, 14-1 MMA
-#147 Ranked WW on Tapology
-Trains at Gile Ribeiro Team
-Has not fought much competition. Maybe 1 quality opponent.

Physical
-Doesn't appear to be that strong, but not particularly weak. Maybe slightly weak when it comes to takedown/grappling type strength, but has punching power.
-Never been KO'd.
-Has never been to the judges. Cardio could be an issue, but I'm not sure.

Striking
-Has a Karate background. Has some Muay Thai
-Prefers to kick than to punch.
-Throws decent straight punches
-Looks like he can use work on head movement/blocking punches. Doesn't seem comfortable blocking. It actually looks weird to me when he blocks.
-Has the power to knock people out.
-Checks kicks.
-Likes to move forward, but is patient with karate stance.
-Decent at moving back when opponent throws a combo.
-Throws clinch knees, not bad.
-When opponent is hurt, he lunges in with aggressive looping punches. I watched him get taken down during his barrage.

Grappling
-Threw a 1-2 combo in a takedown, but the takedown was stuffed and looked fairly weak.
-Safe to assume grappling is not his biggest strength
-Was able to get 8 submission wins in his 15 fights. He is capable on the ground, but not amazing.
-Shows decent submission attempts in regional, we'll see how he is vs top talent.
-Lost once by submission in 2013 regional match.
-Was thrown down/rag dolled by a mediocre regional opponent. I don't think wrestling is his strength at all.
-In scrambles he uses the wizard a lot.

 

[Rando]

Man, I was going to go with Werdum in the main event, but with him looking soft, I don't know.

Anyone know any examples of times where guys come in soft and look real bad? Or vice versa...they look soft and perform as usual? I'm just curious how much of a noticeable difference it usually makes. In a fight like this that seems very close on paper, I think it might change my bet.

 

[letmebangbrah]

might as well donate this dollar to charity but:

cummins rd 3
brown rd 3
smith rd 3
anderson rd 3
belfort rd 1

$1 pays $3.06 million lol. anyone know what 365's maximum payout limit is? i feel like i read that it's around $500k.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Man, I was going to go with Werdum in the main event, but with him looking soft, I don't know.

Anyone know any examples of times where guys come in soft and look real bad? Or vice versa...they look soft and perform as usual? I'm just curious how much of a noticeable difference it usually makes. In a fight like this that seems very close on paper, I think it might change my bet.

An example of a guy coming in soft and looked real bad?

How about Werdum vs JDS?

 

[waiguoren]

Grappling
-4 time BJJ World Champion

I'm telling you, he is "only" a 2x world champion. IIRC he won the worlds in 2008 and 2011. There was one year that both he and Marcelo made it to the finals (maybe 09) and did the typical Team Alliance "close the bracket" thing. I guess they flipped a coin and Marcelo got to be world champion. No way he could have beaten Marcelo anyway.

 

[Rando]

I'm telling you, he is only a 2x world champion. IIRC he won the worlds in 2008 and 2011. There was one year that both he and Marcelo made it to the finals (maybe 09) and did the typical Team Alliance "close the bracket" thing. I guess they flipped a coin and Marcelo got to be world champion. No way he could have beaten Marcelo anyway.

Sorry mate, I just posted it straight from tapology. I'm actually not very familiar with this guy, but I am now.

http://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/fighters/sergio-moraes

Moraes is often called “O Orgulho da Cohab” meaning literally “The Pride of Cohab;” Moraes was born in Cohab. Moraes is a 4-time Brazilian Jiu Jitsu World Champion but his most famous fight was when he defeated Kron Gracie at the 2008 World Championship. He won silver in 2009, the bronze in 2010 and won the gold again in 2011. He also took home gold in the European Championship as well as the Brazilian National Championship in 2011. Moraes's affiliation is the Alliance Jiu Jitsu Team. Currently, he is teaching Jiu-Jitsu in San Diego, CA at Black House, Team Nogueira.

Maybe they are counting the Euro and Brazil National as "world champion".

 

[EzFlyer]

Man, I was going to go with Werdum in the main event, but with him looking soft, I don't know.

Anyone know any examples of times where guys come in soft and look real bad? Or vice versa...they look soft and perform as usual? I'm just curious how much of a noticeable difference it usually makes. In a fight like this that seems very close on paper, I think it might change my bet.

Use the weighin to support your ideas, not create them

 

[Rando]

Use the weighin to support your ideas, not create them

Not sure I follow. If you are suggesting it...I would never base an entire bet on just a weigh in. But obviously its good to know what kind of shape they are in...if they have been training and eating right, ect. To me its a factor in the fight, among many other things. Just not sure how much a factor. That's why I asked.

Like I said in a fight like this where I was going to go with Werdum but not confidently, it could sway me if he is out of shape and Stipe is in good shape. Especially as Stipe is younger and could be hungrier for the title.

 

[mkess101]

I believe EZ Flyer mentioned that Cummins could have trouble shooting from the outside...that clinch takedowns might be the better option for him. Do you have any insight on that?

Possibly. But I think he can also have success shooting as long as he focuses on the single to the lead leg and not the power double.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Cummins is a high level Murican wrestler and Rogerio is an old Brazilian.

The takedowns will happen

 

[EzFlyer]

Cyborg fastest ko +200
Alves fastest sub +575

 

[Agent Mulder]

Cyborg fastest ko +200
Alves fastest sub +575

Wow. Great lines!

 

[lefontes]

I will probably edit this post after I attempt to watch a recent Luan Chagas fight.

Sérgio Moraes
-33 years old
-6'0 - 72 inch reach
-2006 Debut (12 fights in 10 years)
-4-1 UFC, 2-1 Jungle Fight, 1-0 Bellator
-#37 Ranked WW on Tapology
-Trains at Alliance Jiu Jitsu

Physical
-1 loss by KO (Brett Cooper)
-Gets injured a lot
-Seems quick, not too strong but has KO power. Athletic.
-Chin seems questionable.
-Didn't seem to gas in round 2 or 3 vs Akhmedov. In fact his best moment was in round 3, though he doesn't seem like a cardio machine or anything.

Striking
-Throws flying knees as well as traditional knees. Not bad.
-Throws kicks, high and low. Also front kicks.
-Limited striker..still improving.
-Likes to control center and be aggressive.
-Throws counter left hook, misses.
-Very looping punches with both hands. Probably would be better throwing straight punches. The looping punches are just too slow and choreographed.
-1 punch in and out, or he throws his looping punches in combos. Could get lucky with looping punches, but decent strikers will capitalize and probably KO him.
-Decent movement
-Decent at blocking, but leaves himself open
-Clipped by 1 short shot and knocked down by Akhmedov in round 1. Not sure about his chin
-When knocked down, his ground game is so good that it could help his recoveries. Guys may be afraid to play on the ground.
-Clipped Akhmedov with a right in round 3 and swarmed the stunned Russian. This is where the looping punches come in handy, as he showed good killer instinct finishing the fight with them.

Grappling
-4 time BJJ World Champion
-Defeated Kron Gracie @ 2008 World Championship in BJJ
-Submitted Neil Magny in 3 minutes.
-Takedown and wrestling game seems weak. Vs Akhmedov is 0/2 or 0/3 on takedowns. Might know that he could not take the Russian down.
-If he had the takedowns this guy probably would be a lot better in MMA.
-Akhmedov took him down at the end of round 2, Moraes immediately locks in a guillotine attempt until the bell. BJJ is probably world class.




Luan Chagas
-22 years old
-5'11 - ?? inch reach
-2012 Debut (15 fights in 4 years)
-0-0 UFC, 14-1 MMA
-#147 Ranked WW on Tapology
-Trains at

Physical

Striking

Grappling

Chagas 74 inch reach
Train Gile Ribeiro/Noguchi Team (this last was Anderson Silva first gym)
Similar strong as Sergio. Agressive striker with good power but tdd questionable. Bjj and carate Black belt, inferior grappling against Sergio, but good. Would fight next saturday in Imortal 4 but signed with UFC for 2 or 3 fights.

1 unit on Over 1,5
0.2 unit on Chagas decision (lines very good to this)