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UFC 198 - Curitiba - Werdum vs Miocic
- Thread starter EzFlyer
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Yes. Chagas would fight 5/21 on event Imortal 4. Hes is well trained for UFC debut in my opinion.
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You got that right. The only way I get to threads in this section is if they get merged (like this) or they appear on the front page. Ultimately I like to talk about fights/fighters more than I like talking about bets.
Posting my bets would have nothing to do with it, although if it makes you feel better I will. I have turned $100 into $1600 without ever adding a dime, and Ive only been betting for less than a year (about 10 cards that Ive bet on). Im not saying my picks are all great or that I am a betting wizard, but betting has to be done with certain strategies in mind. The guys in that thread were saying some pretty dumb stuff, talking about putting money on whomever they thought was gonna win and not accounting for value/odds. Like I already mentioned putting money on someone who is -1700 is pretty much a bad bet no matter who is in there.
1. -1700 is VERY rare in MMA and should only be for the absolute worst mismatches, not someones debut at a lower weight, debut at a bigger stage after fighting relative nobodies. I say this as someone who generally defends Cyborg and thinks she is almost definitely gonna win, but lets face it we don't really know exactly where she belongs in the pecking order and she is so aggressive that she leaves herself open to an upset more than a patient/strategic fighter.
2. Major underdogs statistically/historically outperform their odds in MMA. Thats THEIR odds, let alone the odds when betting on the favorite. There is a reason this fight has such a HUGE amount of juice (averaging around +900/-1600, +866/-1759 on the site I use). The bookies know what an unknown/big risk it is.
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Just finished the Embedded's. My goodness, Leslie Smith is such a sweet girl.
She is going to get destroyed.
She is going to get destroyed.
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Everyones thoughts on Yancy vs Trinaldo? I expected the odds to me closer to even. Favoring Yancy at +200.
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that's how i feel. but some think trinaldo runs through him. (i disagree)
guys i'm so fucking pissed right now.
Yesterday I bet Anderson at 1.434 and thought that line was pretty good since I don't see him losing to Shogun. Now its rose to 1.645???? wtf happened? I kinda want to add but have so much already. so mad
Yesterday I bet Anderson at 1.434 and thought that line was pretty good since I don't see him losing to Shogun. Now its rose to 1.645???? wtf happened? I kinda want to add but have so much already. so mad
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Don't think that way. You liked your bet when you made it. Don't change course too much if you don't have good reasoning behind it.
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Yep. Almost all my lines for this card changed for the better after I made them. You'll drive yourself crazy thinking too much about that.
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Is Lil Nog going to be able to stop takedowns?
Saw a stat when he was fighting Shogun I believe that stated he was top 5 in takedown defense % in UFC. Something like 76%. I might double check.
Cummins is younger, way less wear and tear. I'm leaning toward him and him by decision, but Lil Nog if he has anything left could just be a better overall fighter. His boxing is obviously better, and BJJ. Can he submit Cummins? I need to watch tape.
If Cummins has the sub D and enough stand up D...I think he could GnP/LnP/WnS his way to a decision depending on how his takedown attempts go.
Saw a stat when he was fighting Shogun I believe that stated he was top 5 in takedown defense % in UFC. Something like 76%. I might double check.
Cummins is younger, way less wear and tear. I'm leaning toward him and him by decision, but Lil Nog if he has anything left could just be a better overall fighter. His boxing is obviously better, and BJJ. Can he submit Cummins? I need to watch tape.
If Cummins has the sub D and enough stand up D...I think he could GnP/LnP/WnS his way to a decision depending on how his takedown attempts go.
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Lil Nog only has 3 submissions in all of his fights, the last one being in 2009 against Dion Staring. I don't see Cummins leaving himself open for a submission, but who knows. The best strategy here for Cummins would be to clinch a lot and wear Nog out against the cage.
I thought Lil Nog looked pretty terrible in his last many fights. He's so slow and has so little output, though at times he shows some of his former boxing prowess. Perhaps the over bet is good for this fight.
His decline reminds me a lot of Shogun - they both lost that speed, quickness, and explosiveness that gave them so much success. They both sort of lumber around in the cage with really slow plodding footwork.
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cummins D in both areas leaves a lot to be desired.. nog has fought a lot of wrestlers & he's not easy to double.. you can get him down from the clinch and by moving laterally w/the td's. if you try to just double him head on, he stuffs you. ask bader & davis.. they both needed to switch it up.
it's all about the wear and tear for me here. gotta favor cummins. nog doesn't have much from his back nowadays... if this was a few years ago i'd be all over nog here.
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I think it's a royal pass. The only one I'd hit would be the Warley/barb fight at +1000. Not worth it tho
Pass for now
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Lol, these are the two I bet small, was hoping for a better line on the bw's
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Im pretty big on Cummins, I think he is smart enough to wear LilNog down and not get knocked out. I see him getting a pretty clear decision.
I've just watched lilnog vs shogun
I can't see him stopping the takedown to be honest and his only way he will is if he can land Jabs and straight lefts to keep distance and hope he can knee/uppercut Cummings as he comes in..
But I see Cummings walking through them to be honest and tats a shame as I have nog in some of my plays!
I can't see him stopping the takedown to be honest and his only way he will is if he can land Jabs and straight lefts to keep distance and hope he can knee/uppercut Cummings as he comes in..
But I see Cummings walking through them to be honest and tats a shame as I have nog in some of my plays!
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