UFN 101 - Whittaker vs Brunson - Australia

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Bands said:
It makes sense that people would unload on Ham decision though, decent value at +135. The chances of her winning any other way are very slim. The bookie doesn't care who wins they just want an even pay out, all they care about is their 10%.
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Dunno man I've played Meunièr three times by decision and all 3 times it's dropped -10 pts. Same with Ham and same with Camozzi/Kelly decision. -10 points and a few others. The Ben line hasn't budged however. I'm going to do it to another line I'm eyeing and let's see if it budges and I won't mention it on here.

.....

Well here's your proof (note the time):

IMG_1027.PNG IMG_1028.PNG

Who wants lines adjusted?
 
Rebel_LioN said:
Dunno man I've played Meunièr three times by decision and all 3 times it's dropped -10 pts. Same with Ham and same with Camozzi/Kelly decision. -10 points and a few others. The Ben line hasn't budged however. I'm going to do it to another line I'm eyeing and let's see if it budges and I won't mention it on here.

Well here's your proof (note the time):

View attachment 171495 View attachment 171497

Who wants lines adjusted?
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I'll have +200 on Knight
 
isn't Brunson a little scary to back here? I mean he charges straight forward overextending on punches with his chin in the sky. tough fight to call in my opinion.
 
More proof note the time:

IMG_1031.PNG IMG_1032.PNG

Only 2 minutes later from a 20$ wager.
 
IMG_1029.PNG IMG_1034.PNG

Ham Socks said:
Afaik lines change when significant amounts of money are put down.
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What do I make of this then? They're minimal amounts. So basically I'm DJ Khalid cuz I got the keys to this sh*t?
 
Rebel_LioN said:
Do you guys believe the line movements depends on how much money is coming in on a fighter or prop?

Because my limits are only 20$ and everything I've played so far keeps dropping -10 pts every time I play it. I've played Ham decision twice and it's dropped twice from +135 to +125 to +115 and that's pretty much crap for value I wouldn't recommend that line. It's been the same for every other prop I've touched.

20$ shouldn't be enough to change a line so I assume they're adjusting it to my plays?
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Afaik lines change when significant amounts of money are put down.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
Dunno man I've played Meunièr three times by decision and all 3 times it's dropped -10 pts. Same with Ham and same with Camozzi/Kelly decision. -10 points and a few others. The Ben line hasn't budged however. I'm going to do it to another line I'm eyeing and let's see if it budges and I won't mention it on here.

.....

Well here's your proof (note the time):

View attachment 171495 View attachment 171497

Who wants lines adjusted?
Click to expand...
You're on 5dimes, right? Maybe they pay more attention to guys who are known to pick accurately.

About a year ago I had 4 big payouts in about 2 months and they put a temporary limit on how large my wagers could be.
 
Whittaker has never fought a southpaw in all his UFC fights
 
Turp11 said:
isn't Brunson a little scary to back here? I mean he charges straight forward overextending on punches with his chin in the sky. tough fight to call in my opinion.
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Agree. He should win given his physical advantages but don't like what he does with his chin, Whittaker can definitely crack him. Doubts over his gas tank too.

Might be best to just live bet Whittaker if Brunson hasn't got rid of him in the first couple of rounds.
 
Props just went up on BetVictor, this is what I like the look of so far.

Nguyen by KO, TKO or DQ - 4.50
Meunier by Decision - 3.50
Seo Hee Ham by Decision - 2.375
Noke 2.50
Camozzi by KO, TKO or DQ - 2.5
Derek Brunson by KO, TKO or DQ - 3.00
Tyson Pedro by Submission 4.00

I think Ning Guangyou will win a decision but Vera submission @ 6.5 is hard to ignore.
 
Bets so far....


Double - Seo Hee Ham To Win By Decision + Alex Volkanovski ML @ 3.73
Single - Ben Nguyen - To Win By KO TKO or Disqualification @ 4.500
Double - Kyle Noke ML + Jonathan Meunier @ 4.16
Single - Tyson Pedro - To Win By Submission @ 4.00
Double - Dan Hooker ML + Chris Camozzi - To Win By KO TKO or DQ @ 4.00

7 fold Parlay For Fun - Lausa, Meunier, Ham, Volkanovski, Matthews, Brunson, Camozzi @ 23.66
 
Probably going to go big on Brunson KO too.
 
Why is Camozzi vs Kelly over 1.5 rounds -200? I think it goes the distance
 
Also think Matthews vs Holbrook doesn't go to dec. -130 is VERY generous IMO.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
Do you guys believe the line movements depends on how much money is coming in on a fighter or prop?

Because my limits are only 20$ and everything I've played so far keeps dropping -10 pts every time I play it. I've played Ham decision twice and it's dropped twice from +135 to +125 to +115 and that's pretty much crap for value I wouldn't recommend that line. It's been the same for every other prop I've touched.

20$ shouldn't be enough to change a line so I assume they're adjusting it to my plays?
Click to expand...
You're prob one of the first group of people to bet the line so they adjust quickly to limit exposure on a "bad" line. Does it always happen or just w this card?
 
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