UFC 208 - Holm vs De Randamie - Brooklyn

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LOL with people trying to act like a bet on a guy with power who's +400 or better is the dumbest play ever.

Do I think Boetch wins? Hell no LOL. But a "zero percent chance"? FFS of all the retarded shit I see...

And here's the thing: Jacare is more skilled in every area really (maybe wrestling and power are a wash). Jacare is faster, more technical (when he wants to be), etc. He's obviously one of the best grapplers ever to compete in MMA (he's just one of the best grapplers ever, period). BUT BUT BUT, watch how he fights. He doesn't always enter into exchanges properly. He sometimes wings punches as a way to close distance. He trusts his chin (which has worked out for him) but he can be reckless. And the one thing Boetch still has is power.

Again, this isn't advocating a Boetch play necessarily from me. I'm just saying it's silly to act like betting a guy who has one shot power at +450 or whatever vs a guy who will leave his chin open at times is the dumbest bet ever.
 
plekz said:
he's a journeyman who throughout his career haven't shown any major improvements at all, being 36 now he's extremely unlikely to improve at all between camps. facing a top5 mw who has numerous wins against ranked opponents, who was a multiple bjj world champ, a former strikeforce champ, and who throughout his career (unlike boetsch) have shown tons of improvement.

he's the better striker, more sound defense, he's the better defensive and offensive wrestler, and he has a ground game that makes boetsch a white belt in comparasin. outside of him clobbering jacare, he has virtually no chance winning this, just by looking at skills objectively it would require things out of boetsch control really for him to sway this in his favor, meaning jacare would have to brainfart and start throwing completly wild and recklessly.

this close to a title shot? jacare will use feints and strikes to back tim towards the cage, clinch him, trip him, pass guard, and either arm triangle him or mount and pound on him until the ref steps in.
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I've seen him do just that. All the time? Of course not, but he does it sometimes.

Personally the fight is probably just a pass for me. Unless I can get Boetch KO at like +650 or better I'd rather just not bet it at all. But again, weird things happen and Tim can throw with big power. If I was gonna lay juice at someone -600 or more, it sure as hell wouldn't be here with Jacare.
 
EzFlyer said:
Miller +325 is bonkers. I'm on it.
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It's tempting me... Poirier has struggled against other south paws (granted this was McGregor and MJ), but I'm still pretty sure Miller will get outboxed, and he has no get-ups if taken down. You're right, though, the line just seems off.

I'm taking the over at evens. Sub defense should cancel and only Diaz has rocked him with punches.
 
mkess101 said:
BUT BUT BUT, watch how he fights. He doesn't always enter into exchanges properly. He sometimes wings punches as a way to close distance. He trusts his chin (which has worked out for him) but he can be reckless. And the one thing Boetch still has is power.
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This is exactly why Boetsch KO'ing Jacare would just make me stare at the TV and say "such is MMA" rather than faint from shock. Jacare fucks shit up but he's hittable. There's no way a guy with heavy hands going against his style has zero chance.

Even in BJJ Maia described him as a guy that was regarded as an amazing athlete rather than a technical wizard. A lot of Jacare's domination comes from being the superior athlete and having a chin/being a tough dude. That can potentially be exploited, especially as he continues to age.

I think Jacare GNP's him... but after Bisping KO'd rockhold I will never ever ever ever be surprised to see some ridiculous shit occur
 
Here's a tale of two cards -

You got Jacare an elite MW vs Boestch a solid guy. Juice is -500/+400.

Last card I shat on a majority of the favorites being non-elite guys who were juiced for whatever reason.

Not gonna condemn a bet on a +400 dog but cmon if you're going to take a long shot, last week was the time to do it against bums like OSP/Hamilton, not here against Jacare who's on the cusp of a title shot.
 
piglord said:
tim boetsch's standup looked improved last time and he has insane power. plus, he has a college wrestling background and could potentially stuff jacare's takedowns - he might be one of the few guys in the division that can match jacare for strength.

if it stays standing it could go either way.
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Yeah totally. Jacare also tends to start fast and sometimes throws hands which could create an opening for TB. If TB shuts down the TDs then it could get interesting.

Come to think of it I could also see TB winning an ugly decision.
 
plekz said:
this reads like you trying to convince yourself that the play makes sense, more so then it does resemble a realistic approach to how this is likely to go down. eliminate all above, until you are left with a punchers chance. because that's really the reality of the situation.

the last four years he's been finished by hendo, ed herman, thales leites & luke rockhold, outside of rockhold, jacare would absolutley trash all three of those losses. tim's wins the last couple of years are samman and natal, not even necessery to elaborate what would happen if jacare faced either of them.

wouldn't be surprised at all if jacare retires what is left of boetsch career on saturday.
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Punchers chance is not a bad description. I will take some at 4-1
 
Confirmation of obvious Jacare/Boestch gameplans from the 208 countdown:

Boetsch says he will have nothing to do with the BJJ game and will be looking to stay on the feet throwing bombs. Jacare says he feels Boetsch is weakest on the ground and that is where he will prevail
 
Orion said:
Confirmation of obvious Jacare/Boestch gameplans from the 208 countdown:

Boetsch says he will have nothing to do with the BJJ game and will be looking to stay on the feet throwing bombs. Jacare says he feels Boetsch is weakest on the ground and that is where he will prevail
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Oh thank God, I thought he was gonna test Jacare's ground game.. phew ;)
 
When Randy fought Montano he had mold poisoning he claimed it affected his performance
 
In this crazy sport i can't fault anyone stabbiing Tim @ +450. But Tim Boestch got taken down by Thales Leites and sub'd. I can't see Jacare having a problem doing the same.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Miller has no power tho. He has one TKO win in 8 years in the UFC. Well two if you count Gomi who has no ground game and got stuck as soon as Miller got his back. If DP was facing a power puncher then yeah i could see your concern.
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Its true Miller is really isn't power puncher but Miller winning a split in a close decision doesn't seem unreasonable to me either. A solid performance from Miller combined with a "shaky" Poirer doesnt seem as remote as the odds say.

I
 
ninjadeathcult said:
Its true Miller is really isn't power puncher but Miller winning a split in a close decision doesn't seem unreasonable to me either. A solid performance from Miller combined with a "shaky" Poirer doesnt seem as remote as the odds say.

I
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I just can't see it. Miller has won three in a row over Gomi (meh), Lauzon (gift dec) and Alves (off gear). So to the naked eye it looks like a renaissance when after the Sanchez fight everyone was saying he's done. I think Poirier is a terrible fight for him style wise.
 
rille31 said:
Does belal really have a great chin though, he had like 4 knockdowns against jabouin and vicente knocked him out cold
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I said this before:
"What was even more impressive against Jouban is that he was fasting. Already water depleted and then cut weight. He was susceptible to the KO without much fluid in the brain." Im not surprised he was getting dropped.

Luque KO was a nasty left counter which Belal couldnt see, the shot you dont see is always the worst. Not only has Luque the better boxer than Brown but he's massive improvement since TUF has been staggering. This loss too Luque isnt all bad, he's been on a run since december 2015. Brown doesn't have the striking or power Luque has, I like Belal at dog money. I would even take him if he was favorite aswell.


EDIT: Only downside is that he's coming back to early from that KO, he's not fully healed imo. But you can tell he's hungry to wipe that loss from the record.
 
I think Jacare submission is the way to go. He'll take him down and strangle him.

McCall is gonna warrants a play aswell. He's nearly flipped to the dog.
 
today i was going back from the gym, squating hard , preworkout was still flowing in my veins .. suddenly my Hip Hop radio played this :



i am thinking woot da fook - but it was the sign . Life showed me the money and i visualized it.
"You should bet Randy Brown dude" and i did.
 
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