UFC 208 - Holm vs De Randamie - Brooklyn

[LEMONZEST]

call me crazy but i'm definitely making a play on tim boetsch here.

Yeah this is a must play spot. I love Jacare but Boetsch is just a tough matchup for anyone. All it takes is 1 punch and its over. Boetsch can also take a lot of damage and then come from behind for the win. Two older guys - I simply have to take the steep dog.

 

[piglord]

Yeah this is a must play spot. I love Jacare but Boetsch is just a tough matchup for anyone. All it takes is 1 punch and its over. Boetsch can also take a lot of damage and then come from behind for the win. Two older guys - I simply have to take the steep dog.

tim boetsch's standup looked improved last time and he has insane power. plus, he has a college wrestling background and could potentially stuff jacare's takedowns - he might be one of the few guys in the division that can match jacare for strength.

if it stays standing it could go either way.

 

[t6p]

With you guys on Boetsch. Small right now at +455 but might add more. I could see the line jumping back up from people parlaying Jacare.

 

[plekz]

tim boetsch's standup looked improved last time and he has insane power. plus, he has a college wrestling background and could potentially stuff jacare's takedowns - he might be one of the few guys in the division that can match jacare for strength.

if it stays standing it could go either way.

this reads like you trying to convince yourself that the play makes sense, more so then it does resemble a realistic approach to how this is likely to go down. eliminate all above, until you are left with a punchers chance. because that's really the reality of the situation.

the last four years he's been finished by hendo, ed herman, thales leites & luke rockhold, outside of rockhold, jacare would absolutley trash all three of those losses. tim's wins the last couple of years are samman and natal, not even necessery to elaborate what would happen if jacare faced either of them.

wouldn't be surprised at all if jacare retires what is left of boetsch career on saturday.

 

[Officer_Brown]

this reads like you trying to convince yourself that the play makes sense, more so then it does resemble a realistic approach to how this is likely to go down. eliminate all above, until you are left with a punchers chance. because that's really the reality of the situation.

the last four years he's been finished by hendo, ed herman, thales leites & luke rockhold, outside of rockhold, jacare would absolutley trash all three of those losses. tim's wins the last couple of years are samman and natal, not even necessery to elaborate what would happen if jacare faced either of them.

wouldn't be surprised at all if jacare retires what is left of boetsch career on saturday.

exactly. thats how they convinced themself that Hill is going to win somehow... No value here at all. Jacare outboxes Tim on the feet. And Jacare has very good chin. Look at the bombs and ground and pound he took from yoel and he survived. There is absolutely zero chance tim wins this.. only chance is fluke injury

 

[Clit Yeastwood]

Betting Boetsch's ml isn't worth it in my opinion(I can only get him at +380 on Bet365), the only thing I would consider is his itd prop and even then that's a longshot

*edit* his itd prop probably wouldn't even be much better than his ml seeing as he only has a puncher's chance of winning

 

[plekz]

i mean, not to piss on the memory of a deceased fighter, but samman lost to boetsch in july, and like two months later he's found unresponsive in a hotelroom, and later passes away after a while in the hospital where the autopsy shows that he had prescription pills, heroine and cocaine in his system?, that's a pretty steep decline if he somehow ran back to that instantly after losing to boetsch. more likely scenario is he's been on good knows what even before that.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Holly's got a pretty nice ass, but other than that i don't really like much on this card. I'll have to look deeper to try to find more plays but it's not a card I'm crazy about at all.

I hit Nover for a unit at +170, see a little value there but it's not something I'm crazy about. That's it for now, gonna have to wait on props and try not to force any plays.

 

[Orion]

tim boetsch's standup looked improved last time

For the hell of it I've been playing devil's advocate to make a case for Tim, but I highly doubt Tim is improving at age 36. I believe that was more Natal just having trash striking

 

[Stunna77]

I can't fault people taking a stab on Boetsch since the line is so steep, but I don't see it. Think Jacare dominates him. I was pretty big on Boetsch last fight, but Jacare>>>>>>>>>>>> * a million>>>Natal.

 

[Stunna77]

McCall down to -120? Waiting to see if he flips to the dog, but feel this warrants a bet with the hope McCall is still at least 75-80% of what he was. An undersized debutant should not be essentially at evens with a guy who was considered a top 3 125er not too long ago. McCall is also only 32, despite all the injuries. Think the fade has gone too far..

 

[BluntTrauma21]

I can't fault people taking a stab on Boetsch since the line is so steep, but I don't see it. Think Jacare dominates him. I was pretty big on Boetsch last fight, but Jacare>>>>>>>>>>>> * a million>>>Natal.

Same here, was also pretty heavy on Tim against Sapo but not touching him this time out. Boetsch has a chance to land something big and ko Jacare but other than that Jacare has too many ways to win, he could ko Tim himself, he could outstrike him to a Dec, or considering that Jacare is a very good wrassler for being known as a bjj guy, he could take Boetsch down and rape him on the ground (hopefully not literally). Jacare shouldn't have too tough of a time getting the win here, Tim is tough, strong, and has power but it's nothing Jacare hasn't seen before.

 

[Stunna77]

Same here, was also pretty heavy on Tim against Sapo but not touching him this time out. Boetsch has a chance to land something big and ko Jacare but other than that Jacare has too many ways to win, he could ko Tim himself, he could outstrike him to a Dec, or considering that Jacare is a very good wrassler for being known as a bjj guy, he could take Boetsch down and rape him on the ground (hopefully not literally). Jacare shouldn't have too tough of a time getting the win here, Tim is tough, strong, and has power but it's nothing Jacare hasn't seen before.

Yeah he did just fight Romero, the scariest guy at 185 and I thought he won that fight. Also iirc Rockhold got Boetsch down with ease and raped him (literally) and Jacare has better offensive wrestling than Rockhold.

Jacare has been KO'd twice, none since 2008 and that was a Mousasi upkick. Since then he has fought Lawler, Rockhold, Brunson, Moose again, Romero and Vitor. I do not think Boetsch is the one to add to his KO losses..

 

[Orion]

Holly dec +215

das it mane

 

[t6p]

Same here, was also pretty heavy on Tim against Sapo but not touching him this time out. Boetsch has a chance to land something big and ko Jacare but other than that Jacare has too many ways to win, he could ko Tim himself, he could outstrike him to a Dec, or considering that Jacare is a very good wrassler for being known as a bjj guy, he could take Boetsch down and rape him on the ground (hopefully not literally). Jacare shouldn't have too tough of a time getting the win here, Tim is tough, strong, and has power but it's nothing Jacare hasn't seen before.

Yeah he did just fight Romero, the scariest guy at 185 and I thought he won that fight. Also iirc Rockhold got Boetsch down with ease and raped him (literally) and Jacare has better offensive wrestling than Rockhold.

Jacare has been KO'd twice, none since 2008 and that was a Mousasi upkick. Since then he has fought Lawler, Rockhold, Brunson, Moose again, Romero and Vitor. I do not think Boetsch is the one to add to his KO losses..

I don't think anyone is saying that they favor Tim here. Jacare opened at -765, which to me is a little crazy. Vitor closed at +195 against Jacare, and IMO Tim has a better shot than the version of Vitor that fought at UFC 198. At +455 I see a little bit of value on Tim and I stabbed it for 0.5u. If Jacare takes him down and subs him in the first 30 secs I won't regret my bet.

 

[The MM Analyst]

I like Belal as a dog. He's the better boxer, Brown has poor footwork and puts himself in poor positions, and overextends on every punch he throws with his rear hand. Brown has active head movement but stays over his hip for far too long and moves his head when his feet aren't in position, which exposes him. Belal's head movement consists only of pulls and lacks slips/dips which could be trouble against a longer fighter with an active jab but I think Brown's propensity to overextend and give up his reach will make it easier, Belal is good at skipping back and giving just enough ground to avoid a punch before coming in with a counter. Brown is easy to back up and Belal has a decent pressure game, he's strong in the clinch and has good shots, as well as a solid basic chain wrestling game, so I think he should be able to control the clinch and take Brown down.

I liked Lentz as a dog before I realized I was confusing Islam Makachev with Magomed Mustafaev, but now that I have my Dagestanis in order I think the odds are accurate.

 

[Stunna77]

I don't think anyone is saying that they favor Tim here. Jacare opened at -765, which to me is a little crazy. Vitor closed at +195 against Jacare, and IMO Tim has a better shot than the version of Vitor that fought at UFC 198. At +455 I see a little bit of value on Tim and I stabbed it for 0.5u. If Jacare takes him down and subs him in the first 30 secs I won't regret my bet.

Definitely not trying to talk anyone out of a bet on Tim, especially at +455. He's +350 on Bovada. I was just saying I think Jacare does indeed dominate him..

 

[null]

exactly. thats how they convinced themself that Hill is going to win somehow... No value here at all. Jacare outboxes Tim on the feet. And Jacare has very good chin. Look at the bombs and ground and pound he took from yoel and he survived. There is absolutely zero chance tim wins this.. only chance is fluke injury

How can you be a regular MMA bettor and say there is zero chance of a professional fighter winning when we have seen so many large dogs find a way to win, sometimes in ways that one doesn't expect? That kind of hyperbole undermines every other opinion you ever express.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

I don't think anyone is saying that they favor Tim here. Jacare opened at -765, which to me is a little crazy. Vitor closed at +195 against Jacare, and IMO Tim has a better shot than the version of Vitor that fought at UFC 198. At +455 I see a little bit of value on Tim and I stabbed it for 0.5u. If Jacare takes him down and subs him in the first 30 secs I won't regret my bet.

I know what you mean, like Stunna said not trying to poo poo a bet on Tim here or anything, he's a tough dude.

 

[plekz]

I know what you mean

he's a journeyman who throughout his career haven't shown any major improvements at all, being 36 now he's extremely unlikely to improve at all between camps. facing a top5 mw who has numerous wins against ranked opponents, who was a multiple bjj world champ, a former strikeforce champ, and who throughout his career (unlike boetsch) have shown tons of improvement.

he's the better striker, more sound defense, he's the better defensive and offensive wrestler, and he has a ground game that makes boetsch a white belt in comparasin. outside of him clobbering jacare, he has virtually no chance winning this, just by looking at skills objectively it would require things out of boetsch control really for him to sway this in his favor, meaning jacare would have to brainfart and start throwing completly wild and recklessly.

this close to a title shot? jacare will use feints and strikes to back tim towards the cage, clinch him, trip him, pass guard, and either arm triangle him or mount and pound on him until the ref steps in.