UFC 218 - Holloway vs Aldo II - Detroit

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Kimball ITD +600 and Felder DEC +500 seem off too
 
I got Francis, Holloway, Torres, Gaethje, Cejudo. Decently confident picks. Was tempted to bet aldo as the dog as I am a fan of his since WEC days. Just don't see how he beats max aside from an early finish plus his weight cut looked like it killed him. Pretty sure that Francis finishes Overeem and Torres wins by decision.
 
This might be one of those cases when the new gun makes us say "holy shit, he's legit" - /re Overeem-Ngannou.
 
pytycrys said:
This might be one of those cases when the new gun makes us say "holy shit, he's legit" - /re Overeem-Ngannou.
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he's -240 against overeem in a title eliminator.. i think we know he's legit! :) i just think reem is a tricky fight for him.
 
Reem at + odds. I just struggle to see how that's a bad bet.

+1000 at ko in the first?

I dno man Ngannou is good but Reem I the type of fighter where skillfully he is the best.
 
Mga223 said:
Reem at + odds. I just struggle to see how that's a bad bet.

+1000 at ko in the first?

I dno man Ngannou is good but Reem I the type of fighter where skillfully he is the best.
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Arguable bad bet for easy reasons. Reem has worst chin in HW history and Ngannou is hardest hitter in HW history

Seems like a clear pass fight considering those things and current lines. Maybe liked a bet on Reem when Francois was a bit more juiced than he is now
 
While everyone else is guessing, I'm winning. These big PPV cards can be traps for bettors, stick to what you know. At the end of the day, coming out on top is what matters.

Like I was saying about the TUF card, don't bet on the jobbers but a lot of you didn't listen and took massive L's on Soto and Ware. If you can't tell who the jobbers are, then you can't pick the winner either. The kind of people that bet Ware and Soto are the kind of people that bet Curran when she's 1-5 in the company, very low level betting.

Meanwhile I'm predicting future world champions
 
Joseph Budden said:
Arguable bad bet for easy reasons. Reem has worst chin in HW history and Ngannou is hardest hitter in HW history

Seems like a clear pass fight considering those things and current lines. Maybe liked a bet on Reem when Francois was a bit more juiced than he is now
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I mean skill wise does Reem not smash Ngannou?

Does chin bring in the factor where overeem is a decent dog he isn't the right side to bet?
 
Mga223 said:
I mean skill wise does Reem not smash Ngannou?

Does chin bring in the factor where overeem is a decent dog he isn't the right side to bet?
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Skill wise Reem could shut Ngannou down for 2 rounds. But all its going to take is one semi clean punch to put Reem away at anytime in the fight. That puts a considerable dent in the value.
 
Zee's MMA Subscriber said:
While everyone else is guessing, I'm winning. These big PPV cards can be traps for bettors, stick to what you know. At the end of the day, coming out on top is what matters.

Like I was saying about the TUF card, don't bet on the jobbers but a lot of you didn't listen and took massive L's on Soto and Ware. If you can't tell who the jobbers are, then you can't pick the winner either. The kind of people that bet Ware and Soto are the kind of people that bet Curran when she's 1-5 in the company, very low level betting.

Meanwhile I'm predicting future world champions
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Are you the half the battle guy or what?
 
Zee's MMA Subscriber said:
Why you gotta be like that? I'm just exposing the truth, sucks seeing so many low level bettors getting baited by trap lines SMH, I know you guys can do better @Stunna77
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I did take an L on Soto, sorry didn't see the much more decorated BJJ player getting caught with a calf slicer lmao. Hit Janes rd 3 +3200 and Lovato +295, so I still walked away up 5u last night, hbu?

You should definitely bet Magana tonight too, let that fan in you have some fun.
 
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You vs the guy she tells you not to worry about...

That said, Overeem has many more dimensions, and he could no doubt do tricky shit taht Ngannou isn't used to, hasn't seen before and catch a gulliotine or a JDS style KO - But Ngannou seems like an incredibly quick athlete who's also very thoughtful when he fights. - Probably catches the Reem some time in the second.
 
I am really pissed this card is on the same night my Badgers play for a chance at the college football playoff. Attention will be divided, kinda sucks. That said, here's some thoughts:

Cooper probably beats Magana. But who the hell would ever consider betting her at these odds? Small bet on Magana.

I **think** I like Herrig over Casey, but the best play to me is Herrig NSC at -105. Herrig is tough as hell, and doesn't make as many sloppy positional mistakes as most WMMA fighters that lead to them getting mounted, subbed, etc.

Klose/Teymur should be a pick 'em imo, so a small bet on Klose at these odds makes sense.

Brazilian Cowboy probably a little too heavy a fave at this point. I kinda like the u1.5 at +150 though. BC will push the pace and it's not hard for me to see him stopping Yancy early or to see BC make a mistake and end up in a bad spot.

There is NO WAY that Felder should be a dog to Olives. No way. He's the better fighter. The glaring flaw we've seen at times with Felder is his inactivity. And it seems like it's something he's conscious of and has fixed. He's a cerebral fighter, he knew he needed to be higher output and can't just sit back and counter and expect to win fights consistently. But EVEN IF he were to revert a bit to that inactivity, Olives isn't the guy to take advantage. Felder is easily the faster, smoother, better striker. There's no question he has the better chin and is more durable. This will be my biggest pre fight bet, Felder +110 is a gift, so glad this line shifted this way. Olives sub would be my hedge, but at +225 I'm not even gonna bother. I do think it's clearly Olive's best chance of winning, but I cap Felder around -180 to -200 here, I really do.

Alvarez/Gaethje u1.0 at +171 I think has a little value. Almost 2-1 the way Gaethje fights? I realize both guys have been pretty durable, but I have a feeling this could be rock 'em sock 'em robots from the opening bell. Alvarez rd 1 at +650 might be worth a tiny stab too.

Pettis dec has to be played small at +385. I think Cejudo wins, his boxing has looked drastically improved and he can most likely hit TD's whenever he wants if the striking isn't going his way. BUT, Pettis is still the more well rounded striker, and if he wins it's most likely by using distance perfectly and outpointing Henry.

I'm with EZ I think on Ngannou/Reem. People see Ngannou's power and just assume he goes in swinging for the fences from the start. He really doesn't. He takes his time, and Reem these days seems very likely to oblige a tactical fight. O1.5 at +120 has value imo. Also, Reem still does have that guillotine in his arsenal, and we haven't really seen Ngannou's sub defense tested. +1430 deserves a little stab.

Have to favor Max obviously, but man rewatching the first fight Aldo really was tuning him up the first 2 rounds. At this point, it's pretty obvious Max is more durable, and better built for 5 round fights. Aldo being older, more mileage, etc. are factors you just can't ignore. And in rd 3 of that last fight, it was literally as soon as Max decided to pressure Aldo and hit him a few times that Aldo just crumbled. It makes me wonder if Max will just decide to pressure Aldo from the start this time. I think the play here is u2.5 at+137. I just don't see Max being willing to give Aldo the room he gave him for 2 rounds again. Aldo is still dangerous, esp when he's at the distance he wants. I think Max is gonna be in his face right away. If Max does get overaggressive, Aldo rd 1 is +1900 too...
 
EzFlyer said:
Sticking with my original plan. Betting on a couple major factors:

1: overeem is a great game planner on a team known for gameplans. Stick and move, avoid the power. Maybe get takedowns?

2: ngannou is a patient motherfucker . He takes his time. Perhaps to his detriment, unless he's doing it to avoid gassing (doubt that's the reason)

Loading up on reem +200, reem +3.5 +160, o1.5 +122, and even some on goes 3 +310.

Im aware of the risks. Will I be surprised if ngannou flatlines him some point early? of course not. I'm just betting against it.
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i still think the best option is to wait and bet rheem after the first round. he in all likelihood is going to lose the first five minutes of the fight
 
mkess101 said:
I am really pissed this card is on the same night my Badgers play for a chance at the college football playoff. Attention will be divided, kinda sucks. That said, here's some thoughts:

Cooper probably beats Magana. But who the hell would ever consider betting her at these odds? Small bet on Magana.

I **think** I like Herrig over Casey, but the best play to me is Herrig NSC at -105. Herrig is tough as hell, and doesn't make as many sloppy positional mistakes as most WMMA fighters that lead to them getting mounted, subbed, etc.

Klose/Teymur should be a pick 'em imo, so a small bet on Klose at these odds makes sense.

Brazilian Cowboy probably a little too heavy a fave at this point. I kinda like the u1.5 at +150 though. BC will push the pace and it's not hard for me to see him stopping Yancy early or to see BC make a mistake and end up in a bad spot.

There is NO WAY that Felder should be a dog to Olives. No way. He's the better fighter. The glaring flaw we've seen at times with Felder is his inactivity. And it seems like it's something he's conscious of and has fixed. He's a cerebral fighter, he knew he needed to be higher output and can't just sit back and counter and expect to win fights consistently. But EVEN IF he were to revert a bit to that inactivity, Olives isn't the guy to take advantage. Felder is easily the faster, smoother, better striker. There's no question he has the better chin and is more durable. This will be my biggest pre fight bet, Felder +110 is a gift, so glad this line shifted this way. Olives sub would be my hedge, but at +225 I'm not even gonna bother. I do think it's clearly Olive's best chance of winning, but I cap Felder around -180 to -200 here, I really do.

Alvarez/Gaethje u1.0 at +171 I think has a little value. Almost 2-1 the way Gaethje fights? I realize both guys have been pretty durable, but I have a feeling this could be rock 'em sock 'em robots from the opening bell. Alvarez rd 1 at +650 might be worth a tiny stab too.

Pettis dec has to be played small at +385. I think Cejudo wins, his boxing has looked drastically improved and he can most likely hit TD's whenever he wants if the striking isn't going his way. BUT, Pettis is still the more well rounded striker, and if he wins it's most likely by using distance perfectly and outpointing Henry.

I'm with EZ I think on Ngannou/Reem. People see Ngannou's power and just assume he goes in swinging for the fences from the start. He really doesn't. He takes his time, and Reem these days seems very likely to oblige a tactical fight. O1.5 at +120 has value imo. Also, Reem still does have that guillotine in his arsenal, and we haven't really seen Ngannou's sub defense tested. +1430 deserves a little stab.

Have to favor Max obviously, but man rewatching the first fight Aldo really was tuning him up the first 2 rounds. At this point, it's pretty obvious Max is more durable, and better built for 5 round fights. Aldo being older, more mileage, etc. are factors you just can't ignore. And in rd 3 of that last fight, it was literally as soon as Max decided to pressure Aldo and hit him a few times that Aldo just crumbled. It makes me wonder if Max will just decide to pressure Aldo from the start this time. I think the play here is u2.5 at+137. I just don't see Max being willing to give Aldo the room he gave him for 2 rounds again. Aldo is still dangerous, esp when he's at the distance he wants. I think Max is gonna be in his face right away. If Max does get overaggressive, Aldo rd 1 is +1900 too...
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Wanted to bash you for watching a team with a bitchass name like Badgers over MMA but then you said you were betting GOATgana. Gj bro
 
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