I am really pissed this card is on the same night my Badgers play for a chance at the college football playoff. Attention will be divided, kinda sucks. That said, here's some thoughts:
Cooper probably beats Magana. But who the hell would ever consider betting her at these odds? Small bet on Magana.
I **think** I like Herrig over Casey, but the best play to me is Herrig NSC at -105. Herrig is tough as hell, and doesn't make as many sloppy positional mistakes as most WMMA fighters that lead to them getting mounted, subbed, etc.
Klose/Teymur should be a pick 'em imo, so a small bet on Klose at these odds makes sense.
Brazilian Cowboy probably a little too heavy a fave at this point. I kinda like the u1.5 at +150 though. BC will push the pace and it's not hard for me to see him stopping Yancy early or to see BC make a mistake and end up in a bad spot.
There is NO WAY that Felder should be a dog to Olives. No way. He's the better fighter. The glaring flaw we've seen at times with Felder is his inactivity. And it seems like it's something he's conscious of and has fixed. He's a cerebral fighter, he knew he needed to be higher output and can't just sit back and counter and expect to win fights consistently. But EVEN IF he were to revert a bit to that inactivity, Olives isn't the guy to take advantage. Felder is easily the faster, smoother, better striker. There's no question he has the better chin and is more durable. This will be my biggest pre fight bet, Felder +110 is a gift, so glad this line shifted this way. Olives sub would be my hedge, but at +225 I'm not even gonna bother. I do think it's clearly Olive's best chance of winning, but I cap Felder around -180 to -200 here, I really do.
Alvarez/Gaethje u1.0 at +171 I think has a little value. Almost 2-1 the way Gaethje fights? I realize both guys have been pretty durable, but I have a feeling this could be rock 'em sock 'em robots from the opening bell. Alvarez rd 1 at +650 might be worth a tiny stab too.
Pettis dec has to be played small at +385. I think Cejudo wins, his boxing has looked drastically improved and he can most likely hit TD's whenever he wants if the striking isn't going his way. BUT, Pettis is still the more well rounded striker, and if he wins it's most likely by using distance perfectly and outpointing Henry.
I'm with EZ I think on Ngannou/Reem. People see Ngannou's power and just assume he goes in swinging for the fences from the start. He really doesn't. He takes his time, and Reem these days seems very likely to oblige a tactical fight. O1.5 at +120 has value imo. Also, Reem still does have that guillotine in his arsenal, and we haven't really seen Ngannou's sub defense tested. +1430 deserves a little stab.
Have to favor Max obviously, but man rewatching the first fight Aldo really was tuning him up the first 2 rounds. At this point, it's pretty obvious Max is more durable, and better built for 5 round fights. Aldo being older, more mileage, etc. are factors you just can't ignore. And in rd 3 of that last fight, it was literally as soon as Max decided to pressure Aldo and hit him a few times that Aldo just crumbled. It makes me wonder if Max will just decide to pressure Aldo from the start this time. I think the play here is u2.5 at+137. I just don't see Max being willing to give Aldo the room he gave him for 2 rounds again. Aldo is still dangerous, esp when he's at the distance he wants. I think Max is gonna be in his face right away. If Max does get overaggressive, Aldo rd 1 is +1900 too...