UFC 218 - Holloway vs Aldo II - Detroit

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Spreading money on Holloway in 3, 4, and 5 is the most #elite approach to that fight other than hammering Max ml
 
pytycrys said:
This might be one of those cases when the new gun makes us say "holy shit, he's legit" - /re Overeem-Ngannou.
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This a fight outcome which I think is largely dependant on the strategy from Ngannou's camp.

If they allow Overeem to fight at range and dictate pace, the longer the fight goes it favours Overeem.

If Ngannou closes distance and pressures him and doesn't allow Overeem to fight at range. His speed, massive power and reach is going to give Overeem all sorts of trouble. He can't fight like JDS and be tentative.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Wanted to bash you for watching a team with a bitchass name like Badgers over MMA but then you said you were betting GOATgana. Gj bro
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Bro, Badger p4p one of the toughest animals out there. Plus, not gonna watch it "over" MMA, just will be switching over between fights, etc. Means my focus might be off. Maybe I go a bit heavier now on stuff I like and don't play to live bet as much. IDK. Really just need the Irish Dragon to come through and most likely it's a good night for me.
 
mkess101 said:
Bro, Badger p4p one of the toughest animals out there. Plus, not gonna watch it "over" MMA, just will be switching over between fights, etc. Means my focus might be off. Maybe I go a bit heavier now on stuff I like and don't play to live bet as much. IDK. Really just need the Irish Dragon to come through and most likely it's a good night for me.
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Dont get into the semantics, either way you have chosen to watch a team named after an animal that has an 84% gay population while watching UFC. Luckily with a bet on GOATgana you remain #blessed even if the real reason you are watching the Badgers is cause you knew about that statistic and wanna do your part to support LGBTQNBA (think I got all the letters right)
 
Joseph Budden said:
Spreading money on Holloway in 3, 4, and 5 is the most #elite approach to that fight other than hammering Max ml
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Man, I said it once already, but I wouldn't count on Max being as tentative early as he was last time. He ate some good shots early when he was letting Aldo dictate the pace. Then as soon as Max dialed it up, Aldo folded. If you heavily favor Max, think Max ML is the way to go over getting too cute with his round props. I wouldn't be shocked at all if rd 1 this time looks like rd 3 of the last fight. Aldo WAS a durable guy, is he anymore?
 
quincy k said:
i still think the best option is to wait and bet rheem after the first round. he in all likelihood is going to lose the first five minutes of the fight
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not so sure, i don't think it's a foregone conclusion that ngannou wins the first barring a ko..
 
mkess101 said:
Man, I said it once already, but I wouldn't count on Max being as tentative early as he was last time. He ate some good shots early when he was letting Aldo dictate the pace. Then as soon as Max dialed it up, Aldo folded. If you heavily favor Max, think Max ML is the way to go over getting too cute with his round props. I wouldn't be shocked at all if rd 1 this time looks like rd 3 of the last fight. Aldo WAS a durable guy, is he anymore?
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Max is notorious for starting slowly and picking it up after the first. And Aldo is Aldo at the end of the day. See what you're saying, they fought once so maybe the reads will come faster, but i'd favor this approach over the other ones at attempted value i'm seeing (Aldo dec, Max dec, etc.)

But at the end of the day Max -5.5 or ml is safest
 
Joseph Budden said:
Dont get into the semantics, either way you have chosen to watch a team named after an animal that has an 84% gay population while watching UFC. Luckily with a bet on GOATgana you remain #blessed even if the real reason you are watching the Badgers is cause you knew about that statistic and wanna do your part to support LGBTQNBA (think I got all the letters right)
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84% of the team is gay? Damn, I can tell you I did NOT know that. Definitely higher than the average college football team. Oh well.

I'm fine with it though. As long as they win. #whathappensinthelockerroomstaysinthelockerroom #notsanduskythoughhopeherotsinhell
 
EzFlyer said:
live betting max is a glaring omission to the above.
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Think whoever sets the lines is FINALLY getting more keen to whos susceptible to gassing and who starts slow etc. but it would definitely be great to see Aldo win round 1 for hope at something playable
 
mkess101 said:
84% of the team is gay? Damn, I can tell you I did NOT know that. Definitely higher than the average college football team. Oh well.

I'm fine with it though. As long as they win. #whathappensinthelockerroomstaysinthelockerroom #notsanduskythoughhopeherotsinhell
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Nooo dude 84% of Badgers the animal. Idk how many on the team are, but its Football. I remember back in the days how normal it was to look at each other's penises in the locker room and stuff, so i'm guessing a few have tried some stuff
 
Joseph Budden said:
Spreading money on Holloway in 3, 4, and 5 is the most #elite approach to that fight other than hammering Max ml
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I think there’s a decent chance he gets it done in the first two actually
 
Joseph Budden said:
Nooo dude 84% of Badgers the animal. Idk how many on the team are, but its Football. I remember back in the days how normal it was to look at each other's penises in the locker room and stuff, so i'm guessing a few have tried some stuff
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Ahh okay. Wow that makes more sense, kinda? I had no clue Badgers (the animal) were gay. That's...bizarre. Just the males? Or females too? Meh, anyway they sure as hell aren't an animal you want to corner or fuck with.

Let's watch Magana cash and the we will celebrate our gay mascot together.
 
promised myself i'd rewatch aldo-holloway I before committing to anything here. my recollection has just been "yea, aldo won rd 1 and i think rd 2 but then max started to take over and showed great positional control/great strength in the scramble for the finish"

i won 6.5u on holloway the first time.. was large on him prefight as the dog and added a unit live at +130 after rd 2. for context. but i have NO real idea which side to bet on the 2nd fight, besides the DNGD bet i made a week or two ago at -145. so i'm going in ready to bet EITHER guy based on rewatch, given the price

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rewatching notes, if any of you haven't rewatched it since the first time:

rd 1 was aldo's. not sure anyone can argue it. but it wasn't THAT big or anything. it was really just a very patient round fro both guys and aldo CRACKED him 2 or 3 times. like halfway thru rd 1 was the best sequence, but man max took it well.

rd 2 faster pace. but really nothing significant happened over the first few minutes. some heavy shots thrown but nothing huge landed for either guy, really. max started picking it up just over halfway thru rd 2.. and that's the main factor in the fight is my biggest takeaway here. i really don't think there was a clear winner in this round. but max clearly starting to get to him, pressure him.. and yea, if it plays out the same, this is when i would pounce on holloway, cause aldo looks a bit fatigued after 2nd. (and i wish i did more last time here haha.)

rd 3 aldo just breathing funny in first minute, but nothing really happened until 2 minutes in. max drops him with back to back 1-2's.. instantly mounts, and then the crazy top game posture / killer instinct kicked in with aldo trying to scramble like mad.

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this fight is all about 1 thing: pace. if aldo can keep it slow-paced, he will win. if max can keep pressuring him, he should break him again. aldo needs to somehow find a way to HURT max whenever max tries to get up in his face.. that's the key. i would say aldo leg kicks could change EVERYTHING, but he doesn't fucking throw kicks anymore...
 
EzFlyer said:
promised myself i'd rewatch aldo-holloway I before committing to anything here. my recollection has just been "yea, aldo won rd 1 and i think rd 2 but then max started to take over and showed great positional control/great strength in the scramble for the finish"

i won 6.5u on holloway the first time.. was large on him prefight as the dog and added a unit live at +130 after rd 2. for context. but i have NO real idea which side to bet on the 2nd fight, besides the DNGD bet i made a week or two ago at -145. so i'm going in ready to bet EITHER guy based on rewatch, given the price

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rewatching notes, if any of you haven't rewatched it since the first time:

rd 1 was aldo's. not sure anyone can argue it. but it wasn't THAT big or anything. it was really just a very patient round fro both guys and aldo CRACKED him 2 or 3 times. like halfway thru rd 1 was the best sequence, but man max took it well.

rd 2 faster pace. but really nothing significant happened over the first few minutes. some heavy shots thrown but nothing huge landed for either guy, really. max started picking it up just over halfway thru rd 2.. and that's the main factor in the fight is my biggest takeaway here. i really don't think there was a clear winner in this round. but max clearly starting to get to him, pressure him.. and yea, if it plays out the same, this is when i would pounce on holloway, cause aldo looks a bit fatigued after 2nd. (and i wish i did more last time here haha.)

rd 3 aldo just breathing funny in first minute, but nothing really happened until 2 minutes in. max drops him with back to back 1-2's.. instantly mounts, and then the crazy top game posture / killer instinct kicked in with aldo trying to scramble like mad.

---

this fight is all about 1 thing: pace. if aldo can keep it slow-paced, he will win. if max can keep pressuring him, he should break him again. aldo needs to somehow find a way to HURT max whenever max tries to get up in his face.. that's the key. i would say aldo leg kicks could change EVERYTHING, but he doesn't fucking throw kicks anymore...
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You make a great point regarding Aldo's cardio. Max isn't pillow fisted, but nor does he have crazy power for a FW. The two combos he hit Aldo with in rd 3 were solid for sure, but Aldo 6-7 years ago eats those easily. But maybe the deterioration isn't so much his chin, but his cardio due to cutting the weight at his age and with his mileage. It's impossible to know for sure, but obviously getting cracked like he did when you are tired has a totally different effect than if you are fresh.

What that all means I don't know. I guess @Joseph Budden could be right in that if Max tries to pressure Aldo too early, Aldo won't wilt because he won't be tired yet. It's definitely something to consider.
 
mmhmm. i'm kinda in the same boat i was before rewatching. i just don't know how to play this fight other than live betting max if he starts to pressure him.
 
could it just be that aldo had a bad night.

it was close to vintage jose in his previous fight against edgar. the aldo that fought frankie probably still loses due to maxs workrate but hollaway itd seems expensive
 
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