UFC on ESPN 2 Barboza vs Gaethje

[Broe.]

Lol every fight someone questions whether Gaethje will use his wrestling, it ain't ever happening Boyz.

 

[Reign Supreme]

What do people give the % chance of Gaethje/Barboza actually seeing the scorecards? I honestly don't see that happening 5% of the time. I can't believe that opened at -385.

I mentioned this earlier ITT that I was looking to go big on this but unfortunately I am on BM and props are always late to drop and I can guarantee that I won't be seeing the odds you got.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

Branch gonna tap to strikes again

 

[clemente]

Barboza 1.65? Surely he will be a bigger favorite before the fight starts?

 

[Jordan3399]

Karolina R2 KO and R3 KO tempt me at +2000 and +3000. Waterson slows and has been hurt on the feet before. Karolina gassed Rose with knees to the body and throws hard especially in the clinch. Karolina TKOing a gassed Waterson wouldn't surprise me.

Waterson Sub +900 alright although I do feel people are underrated KK's ground game. Gadelha is a beast black belt who more or less muscled her down then used a lot of strength in getting Karolina's back as she worked to get back to her feet. If it took that much to sub Karolina then the much physically weaker Waterson who also has, on paper, weaker BJJ, is gonna find it a lot harder. She'll need to be very slick and hope Karolina leaves an opening in a scramble she can capitalise on.

No idea why people are betting Rodriguez at -300, madness gambling money on a fighter and line like that.

Get the feeling people are overestimating the likelihood of a finish in the Johnson-Emmett fight by quite a bit. Took a lot from Stephens to put him away and Johnson is very content to play the volume game while Emmetts sub threat is limited and Johnsons chin solid.

Branch Dec line at +300 seems good. His finishing threat is limited and he's often content to just grind out rounds to a dec. Hermansson also has zero quit in him.

 

[johno]

I'm just trying to think out the box guys but does anyone see Emmett implementing a game centred around subbing mj?
Seeing as though Emmett may be wary of his facial injuries and Elkins managed to be successful taking that route

 

[Oblivian]

I bet on Aguilar vs Glenn and was actually dissapointed a bit on his performance, he seemed very one dimentional and like a regional talent so to say.
I actually think he looked better in the Contender serier, just a lot faster at LW, at FW hes kinda plodding how do you not finish Glenn when you had him hurt that bad twice? I cant see him pressuring Barzola at all, he's just gonna counter with hooks and maybe Barzola is dumb enough to get caught, but i think he's just gonna let Barzola get real comfortable in there and pick his spots, when Barzola struggled with Davis is cuz he was getting pressured with a lot of straight punches.

I've been watching Aguilar for a long time since I watch AXS. I think he constantly gets underestimated because he isn't that imposing. Saying he's one dimensional isn't really true. He's competent in all areas, so specialist can never really exploit him. With that said, it's not like he dominates in any area. He looks for openings and he doesn't really try to impose. I think this is why people are always underwhelmed and he constantly has decent odds. If you look at his odds history, he has definitely outperformed the lines more often than not.

I think one of his best performance was actually against Rader. He was under -200, and he looked like he should have been -500 or more. It was basically a gameplan of all takedown defense and just to exploit the striking. He definitely wasn't just chasing the KO, and I don't think that really characterizes his fighting style. He's looking to land clean punches - not just relying on power.

 

[Xuh]

a case for betting on JAG

JAG is a bad style matchup for Rodriguez. Kickyboxy fighters coming off the regionals where they didn't have to fight many grapplers often have terrible nightmares dealing with big league level grapplers when finally encountering in the UFC. This would appear to be such a matchup with Rodriguez having suspect TDD and grappling, fighting a midget wrestler who was at the peak of the division several years ago.
Now Rodriguez did debut against a grappler (Randa Markos) in the UFC and was taken down easily and completely dominated in the first but then Randa flaked out for the next two rounds. I bet a lot on Randa and even made a betting shill post for her and was mad about this, so I listened to all her postfight excuses and one thing she said was that the plan was to clinch and take down Rodriguez with a head and arm throw but it didn't work after round 1 because Rodriguez got sweaty. I couldn't believe what I was hearing. I expect JAG to show a bit more takedown diversity then that at least and to have success further into the fight. IMO the line is too wide because all ppl remember about JAG right now is her getting destroyed in her last fight, but that doesn't mean this will go the same way.

a Q&A with JAG bet skeptics

'but JAG is washed up'
She's clearly past her best but of her 4 UFC fights, the two blowout losses were to Gadelha and Zhang who represent the uppermost tier of WMMA fighters. It was also Gadelha's career best performance IMO. In JAG's other two UFC fights she was very competitive (including vs fringe top 10er Casey).

'but JAG is too small'
No doubt JAG is also undersized but that'll just mean she's closer to Rodriguez's legs and under her centre of gravity... JAG took down the similarly lanky Cortney Casey very easily. She lost anyway because she was scared off from engaging on the ground by Casey's long, kicky legs off her back. Will Rodriguez do that? I dunno but I'd say Casey is much better on the ground than Rodriguez. I think JAG will have more success once on the mat in this fight then that one.
I'm sure JAG can hit at least 1 takedown in this fight and if she can hit 1 she can hit 2 and if she can hit 2 she has a path to victory...

'but JAG is on short notice'
This is a bit of a concern mostly for cardio reasons, it depends what kind of shape she is in. Hopefully an interview might help give some indication about this.
Still, it goes both ways and Rodriguez has less time to prepare to fight a grappler (her probable nemesis) when she was booked against a striker. & JAG evidently felt this was a good enough opportunity to go 'all or nothing' on still having a UFC career...

'JAG will get owned on the feet'
Of course, so, I guess she will be shooting a lot of takedowns then
Fortunately there is less chance of a one punch KO in a woman's bout but if things go really bad JAG might get stopped eventually especially if she gasses. So look for the Rodriguez KO line instead if you think that'll happen and ya got the ballz.

'JAG sucks, Rodriguez will win. Better give money to a dog shelter than bet on JAG'
I don't really have a comeback to this argument other than to say donating to a dog shelter won't solve the problem of canine overpopulation. Instead, why not gamble on getting little extra return to everyone's favorite charity - yourself? What's the worst that could happen?

Underscoring all the above I would just point to the price on JAG: reaching up to 3.80 (+280 'murican) now. Dat value.

Now you've read all that you can reward yourself by considering whether a 0.25-0.5u 'for action' bet on JAG is worth it... I say yes.

 

[Stunna77]

Props:
Nzech Dec +515
Pearson Dec +539
Aguilar KO +520
Holland Rd3 +1050

Tempted to throw a bit on JAG Dec. Obviously she is slowing down but she handled Faria in her last WSOF fight and that seems like the closest style matchup to Marina compared to any of her UFC opponents.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Anyone going to be playing Aguilar in the distance or KO line?

 

[ApplesVild]

Who's the more well rounded, Aguilar or Barzola?

 

[Oblivian]

Who's the more well rounded, Aguilar or Barzola?

That's not even a question - Aguilar for sure.

 

[Broe.]

Barboza to win itd x 2.25, gotta take some of that.

 

[Stunna77]

Props:
Nzech Dec +515
Pearson Dec +539
Aguilar KO +520
Holland Rd3 +1050

Tempted to throw a bit on JAG Dec. Obviously she is slowing down but she handled Faria in her last WSOF fight and that seems like the closest style matchup to Marina compared to any of her UFC opponents.

Aside from the above I have only two ML bets for this card, which is crazy small for me:

$1200 Perez -194
$300 Herm -120

 

[Oblivian]

Aside from the above I have only two ML bets for this card, which is crazy small for me:

$1200 Perez -194
$300 Herm -120

Without really planning this or paying attention, I'm in bigger than ever on this. Mainly because I increased bet size, and I'm in pretty large on Gaethje/Barboza ITD.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Aside from the above I have only two ML bets for this card, which is crazy small for me:

$1200 Perez -194
$300 Herm -120

How do you feel about Perez ITD/Hermasseon ITD? I was already planning on playing both and can easily see both happening, given styles, recent fights, etc...

 

[Stunna77]

Without really planning this or paying attention, I'm in bigger than ever on this. Mainly because I increased bet size, and I'm in pretty large on Gaethje/Barboza ITD.

What bets are you large on besides ME ITD? I obviously couldn't find much I liked

 

[Stunna77]

How do you feel about Perez ITD/Hermasseon ITD? I was already planning on playing both and can easily see both happening, given styles, recent fights, etc...

Given Perez and DLR both like to come forward I could see Perez catching him clean or a club n sub fairly easily. Branch has been known to bow out in the past and Hermannson is a monster from top, could see a TKO there as well.

 

[Oblivian]

What bets are you large on besides ME ITD? I obviously couldn't find much I liked

It's not so much that each play is large besides the ITD, but I have a few medium sized plays:

Barb, Herm, Aguilar, Johnson, Moraes. I did combine Perez with Borg as well as a couple other plays with Bellator plays, so I'm equal size on him as well. My other plays are smaller.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Given Perez and DLR both like to come forward I could see Perez catching him clean or a club n sub fairly easily. Branch has been known to bow out in the past and Hermannson is a monster from top, could see a TKO there as well.

I was big on Jose Torres as a prospect before Perez squashed that... From what I've watched of the Bumblebee I don't think I've ever seen him land a hurtful punch honestly... Guy has no hands and is all ground or bust.